About Me

Equity Analysts and sports fans, always looking for a new market to beat. We are contrarian style bettors, focusing on isolating value when public perception has created dislocation in a market. We blend statistical models and spot systems with market analysis (looking for situations where sharp money comes against public money) to make our selections. We primarily focus on NFL, NBA, and Tennis. Soccer is a specialty as well, but at this point we are not confident in saying we have a LT ROI + edge on that front.

Monday, August 31, 2020

US Open Futures Picks + Handicaps

Bet Card - US Open Futures

Medvedev to win US Open (5-1) $0.5 / $2.5

Schwartzman to Win Quarter (+1400) $0.5 / $7.0

Raonic to win Quarter (+500) $0.5 / $2.5

Evans to win Quarter (+2200) $0.5 / $11.0


Brady to win US Open (20-1) $0.5 / $10.0

Rybakina to Win US Open  (30-1) $0.5 / $15.0

Alexandrova to Win US Open (50-1) $0.5 / $25.0

Alexandrova to Win Quarter (+1800) $0.5 / $9.0

Rybakina to win Quarter (+750) $0.5 / $3.75

Brady to win Quarter (+500) $0.5 / $2.5

 


Outrights

 

Medvedev to win US Open (5-1) $0.5 / $2.5

  • Men's side of the draw is wide open with no Nadal / Federer and Med finds himself in the easiest quarter of the bracket. Med will be able to play himself into terminator form, and doesn't come in with the fitness issues / fatigue buildup he did last year
  • Djoko looks a little off his best and the faster courts this year will not suit him as we go deeper and deeper into the tournament, and Medvedev has shown he can beat him on a fast court.
  • Medvedev needs to beat Rublev / Berrettini to make it out of his quarter, and then will have the winner of Thiem's bracket in the semi's (Thiem is in bad form and will also not like the speed of these courts).

 

 

Women's draw is wide open this year with Serena far off her best and unlikely to bring the A game for 2 consecutive weeks

 

Brady to win US Open (20-1) $0.5 / $10.0

  • Brady has been in top 10 level form this season (17-5, 81% serve hold and 32% Break %) and these courts will suit her serve oriented game. She will need to beat Pliskova in R3, but her draw is open otherwise and we are going to like the matchup for Brady in that one. If she gets through, she really only has Martic and the winner of Osaka / Kvitova quarter (Osaka looks hurt, Kvitova not in shape) between her and the final

 

Rybakina to Win US Open  (30-1) $0.5 / $15.0

  • Rybakina is 17-4 on Hard courts this season, holding 80% of serve games and breaking 32% on return games. She has made multiple finals already this season, and her only losses prior to the Covid break were to Barty, Halep, Bertens late in tournaments.
  • This is a tough quarter with Osaka / Kvitova / Kontaveit, but Rybakina would only need to beat Kvitova before the semi-finals and the speed of these courts will not suit her and she is unfit / out of form.

 

Alexandrova to Win US Open (50-1) $0.5 / $25.0

  • Alexandrova is an explosive player who can beat just about anyone on a fast hard court due to her extremely powerful / flat groundstrokes. This is a punt, but she's got a weak quarter and there is a chance she comes out if it on top, and then we've got a 50-1 future to hedge against in 2 matches if the matchup dictates


To Win Quarter

 

Schwartzman to Win Quarter (+1400) $0.5 / $7.0

  • Schwartz has an easy draw save for Tsitsipas as the final roadblock, and is a much better Hard Court player than he is given credit for
  • Only threat between him and the Semis is Zverev - Zverev struggles against players who can pressure his serve and we already saw Schwartz beat him here last year.. Easy path otherwise

 

Raonic to win Quarter (+500) $0.5 / $2.5

  • These courts will suit Raonic's game (just put on a serving clinic here last week) and this section of the draw is wide open with big question marks around Thiem's fitness and whether these courts are too quick for him.
  • Agut is a threat in R3 but has not shown he can beat elite serve games. Neither Khachanov / De Minaur (potential R4) has shown they can beat Raonic on a hard court. Thiem would be the final roadblock, but he too will be unable to handle the Raonic serve on faster courts
  • Solid value at 5-1, Raonic wins this quarter 25-35% of the time its played in my eyes

 

Evans to win Quarter (+2200) $0.5 / $11.0

  • this section of the draw is wide open with big question marks around Thiem's fitness and whether these courts are too quick for him.
  • More of a form play, as Evans tricky game makes him a threat to beat anyone when he is on his game and he is clearly in Rhythm. Good matchup vs Auger in R3 before Thiem in R4 (assuming he lasts).
  • At 22-1, worth a dart on Evans

 

Alexandrova to Win Quarter (+1800) $0.5 / $9.0

  • Alexandrova is an explosive player who can beat just about anyone on a fast hard court due to her extremely powerful / flat groundstrokes. This is a punt, but she's got a weak quarter and there is a chance she comes out if it on top

 

Rybakina to win Quarter (+750) $0.5 / $3.75

  • Rybakina is 17-4 on Hard courts this season, holding 80% of serve games and breaking 32% on return games. She has made multiple finals already this season, and her only losses prior to the Covid break were to Barty, Halep, Bertens late in tournaments.
  • This is a tough quarter with Osaka / Kvitova / Kontaveit, but Rybakina would only need to beat Kvitova before the semi-finals and the speed of these courts will not suit her and she is unfit / out of form.

 

Brady to win Quarter (+500) $0.5 / $2.5

  • Brady has been in top 10 level form this season (17-5, 81% serve hold and 32% Break %) and these courts will suit her serve oriented game. She will need to beat Pliskova in R3, but her draw is open otherwise and we are going to like the matchup for Brady in that one. If she gets through, she really only has Martic keeping her from cashing this bet

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