Super Bowl Bets + Thought Bubble / Handicap

Here are my thoughts on tonight's game. 

Super Bowl Thread: 49ers vs Chiefs 

Spread = SF +1.5
Total = 54

Will post my plays + analysis below at the end of this thought bubble. Will start with my opinion on the 1 key issue in this handicap that determines what side of the spread you are on

SF's D played at an elite level wk 1-9, tailed off wk 10-17, then reverted to elite form in the playoffs. This is skewing their full year numbers defensively, and its impacting the point spread as a result. However, we can account for this with my DVOA Point Spread Calculator. I saw significant variance in the projected point spreads (working off DVOA) when using: -Full Season DVOA -Weighted DVOA (wk 10-17 greater weight) -Weighted DVOA + only wk 1-9 for SF D

Traditional season long metrics would make this game somewhere between Pick and KC-1. Given that SF got super banged up around wk 10 and only got healthy again on the playoff bye, I think it makes sense to use their week 1-9 data for Def. Doing so results in projected spread of SF -2.

Takeaway: where you stand on what level we get from SF D (early season elite / late season poor) is a proxy for how you should bet this spread. I expect SF's D to play closer to their early season / elite form, but is subjective and opinions may vary.

If we get "good SF D" here, the gap between KC Off (Elite) and SF D (elite) is much smaller than the gap between SF Off (very good) and KC D (average). I see more holes in the KC D than SF D that can be exploited with a 2  week game planning window, and its possible SF actually has a coaching edge in this game as a result (while I'm certain the market is pricing Reid as an edge over Shanahan - whatever happened to Reid's reputation as someone who tightens up for BIG games).

Conclusion: I see a # of match up tailwinds for SF and while I think KC's Off has successful stretches (they're impossible to contain for an entire game), elite D has a history of at least slowing down elite Off in the Super Bowl. SF should control the clock, move the ball almost at will, and make enough D stops to bring it home

NOTE: There is a ton of correlation between SF winning x the under 54 hitting. If SF wins, it'll be via ball control and an upside performance on D. Total is already inflated at 54, sharp to the under, and we want to attack that correlation in a parlay.

Additionally: Taking 1H under + live 2H over is always a good play in super bowl as well. Point distribution is more skewed to 2H - teams usually come out jacked up + nervous while Offenses are conservative to start / lack rhythm because of how unusual pregame routines are at the SB. Def is typically a better expression of intensity while Off requires poise and timing, so I like the idea off attacking lower than expected scoring in the first half (despite how scary KC's offense is)

Here is my Super Bowl Bet Card:

• unit sizes included for relative scale - $1.0 = typical bet on an NFL game:

SF +1.5 (-110) $1.1 / $1.0

SF +1.5 x U54.5 (+250) $0.5 / $1.25

1H Under 26.5 (-120) $1.2 / $1.0

2H Over 27 (-100) $0.5 / $0.5

-->take pre-gm if available

DVOA matchup dashboard for Chiefs v 49ers below for those interested:

Organized to compare relevant position groups (SF OL vs KC DL, for example) on key metrics. Positive DVOA is good for Off while negative is good for Def. If confused, refer to the rankings:

Australian Open Wrap + Men's Final Results

AO is now in the books - wound up being a very profitable couple of weeks for our Tennis Bets. 

Thiem gave Djokovic everything he could handle in the final, and frankly should have been considered a heavy favorite to win the match going into the 4th set up 2-1. Djokovic looked to be struggling physically at that point, and Thiem was clearly the most physical challenge he had to face through the entire tournament. 

I cannot overstate how impressed I am with the Austrian. He has made huge strides in his tactical approach to hard courts, and has also upgraded his physical conditioning + power of his ground strokes over the past year and change. He has now played 3 GS finals vs. Big 3 opposition, registering the following performances in chronological order:

• 1st Final = 0 sets won vs Nadal (Clay)
• 2nd Final = 1 set won vs Nadal (Clay)
• 3rd Final = 2 sets won vs Djoko (Hard) 

He's clearly getting closer, learning how to navigate the pressures / swings of a GS final as he matures and was a coinflip bounce here / there away from putting Djokovic away. We haven't seen much of him on Clay courts since mid 2019, and I suspect some of the improvements to his Hard Court game (more physical than tactical) since then will translate into further improvement on Clay. 

This was the first time Djokovic has not been able to simply rely on physical superiority late in a GS final (he has historically been able to wear Nadal and Federer down in those matches if all else fails), and it was clear that Thiem was hurting him throughout the entire match with the weight of his ground strokes

Given his growing portfolio of experience with deep GS runs and the likelihood he continues to improve as we move through the clay season, I will be betting Thiem to win Roland Garros outright the minute that line becomes available.

Aussie Open Men's Final + Saturday 2/1 Picks (3-1, +$2.0):

✅Bagnis ML vs Martinez (-150) $1.5 / $1.0

✖️ Bagnis ML x Mena +3.5 x Johnson ML $0.5 / $1.8

✅Thiem O3.5 set (-160) $1.6 / $1.0
✅Thiem O39 (-120) $1.2 / $1.0
✖️Thiem ML (+300) $0.5 / $1.5

(P) Thiem Most Double Fault (-160) $0.8 / $0.5

Australian Open Record + Return = 69 - 49 (58.5%), +$19.05 units

What a run to close the tournament. We finished on an absolute heater, going 17-4 for +$17.15 on the last 5 days of the event. 

Going forward, we will continue posting our picks to twitter and the blog. We tend to be a little lighter early on in tournaments (ESPECIALLY right after slams) to get a better feel for surface conditions and player motivation / fitness dynamics before playing heavier slates. 

Thanks for following along, and show us some love with a like + RT if you've been crushing it with us for the past 2 weeks!

NBA Picks for 2/1 and Results from 1/31

Not a great day on the NBA lines last night, as we went 1-3 on ATS picks and 0-2 on high leverage longshot plays. Kris Dunn got hurt 12 seconds into the Bulls game, depriving the team we backed of their only remaining interior presence with Wendell Carter still missing in action. They did a good job of fighting back and making it a close game in the 2H, but ultimately we're too porous inside on defense, which was not great for our combination of +5.5 and Under 220.5.

Regardless, its all one long session. We will keep firing away on 3-5 contrarian picks every night and hopefully drive moderate + consistent profits over a long time horizon. See below for last night's graded action and scroll past that for tonight's picks and rationale behind them.


NBA Results for Friday 1/31 (1-3 ATS, -$3.15 units)


✖️CHI +5.5 @ BKN $1.1 / $1.0

✖️CHI / BKN U220.5 $1.1 / $1.0

✖️DAL ML @ HOU (+290) $0.35 / $1.0

✅PHX -1 vs OKC $1.1 / $1.0

✖️PHX / OKC U222.5 $1.1 / $1.0

✖️DAL ML x CHI +5.5 x CHI / BKN U220.5 x PHX -1 $0.5 / $5.70

—-> Round Robin 4 x 3 ($0.125 units per parlay) 

YTD = 15-13 ATS, -$2.7 units 

On to picks for Saturday... 

NBA Picks for 2/1 (0-0 ATS, $0)

ORL +3 vs MIA $1.1 / $1.0
PHI -1.5 vs BOS $1.1 / $1.0
PHI / BOS U213 $1.1 / $1.0
ATL +4 vs DAL $1.1 / $1.0
ATL / DAL U236 $1.1 / $1.0
UTA -6 vs POR
SAC +6 vs LAL $1.1 / $1.0

Rationale to be added shortly:

NBA Picks 2/1 Rationale:

ORL +3 vs MIA $1.1 / $1.0
MIA is getting 85% of spread bets and only 65% of the money (bigger bets on ORL, but book liability on MIA) and this line has held steady at +2.5 / +3 all day. Fournier will play today, and the Magic have generally draw sharp money when they have a relatively full complement of players available. 

MIA beat them handily at home a few weeks ago, and that is likely skewing the public's perception of how this game plays out. MIA is way worse on the road than at home (10-12 ATS road / 16-8 ATS home), so the recency bias stemming from the previous matchup is likely resulting in MIA's home / road performance gap not being properly priced into this line. 

PHI -1.5 vs BOS $1.1 / $1.0 + PHI / BOS U213 $1.1 / $1.0
There is sharp money on both PHI and the Under here with BOS seeing 70% of spread bets but the line tricking from BOS -2 down to PHI -1 throughout the day. Horford will play for PHI while Kemba Walker will be missing in action for BOS.

PHI hits on one of my favorite spot systems that I use to source picks. Maynard's Theory filters look to isolate favorites of -1 to -6.5 + playing in a non division road game + coming off a loss. This tends to isolate teams that are highly motivated in that game, and the system has gone 213 - 107 (67%, +30% ROI) since 2004. 

78 % of bets are on the under and the line has still dropped from 213.5 to 213. That type of reverse line movement (RLM) indicates sharp money on the under, and these two teams have generally played slower paced / more defensive matchups in recent meetings


ATL / DAL U236 $1.1 / $1.0 + ATL +4 vs DAL $1.1 / $1.0
Porzingis and Doncic are out here for DAL, which will surely mess with their rotation and rhythm. ATL is one of the sharper spread bets on the board, and while I hate betting on them at below +7.5 I'm gonna hold my nose and go with the side getting 30% of bets and a substantially higher % of the money split

Similar story for the Under - very difficult to bet against points in an ATL game but casino's have set this line here for a reason, knowing full well people tend to play Over on both of these team. Further, this hits a totals system that have had strong success backing: 

Games featuring the following criteria have gone Under at 552-386 (57%) since 2004 - Home Team that hits Over at 58%+ at home + both teams less than 2 days of rest (pace is impacted) + O/U moves down by 0.5 points of more from open to close

UTA -6 vs POR $1.1 / $1.0
UTA got hit with sharp money in the afternoon, causing this line to move from -5 to -6 despite less than 50% of bets on that side. Teams that are favored + fit my sharp money filter have gone 118-85 (58%, +13% ROI) since 2016. POR should also be ripe for an emotional let down after the Kobe game in LA last night, easily could see this being a flat spot for them

SAC +6 vs LAL $1.1 / $1.0
Similar dynamics as UTA, SAC is facing a team that had an extremely emotional game last night, is on a B2B and primed for an emotional let down / flat spot. Further, everyone AND they're mother wants to bet Lebron tonight - 90% of spread bets are on LAL, but the line has not budged off +6.5. Would not be surprised if we get a +7 late, and that's when sharp money will pour in on SAC

Tennis Picks for 2/1 + Australian Open Final

VICTORY!!!! Kenin was truly spectacular last night - the nerve on her to swing that match from 1-0 down was remarkable. Looked dicey in the first set as Muguruzua came out very aggressively, but Kenin proceeded to methodically turn her opponent into a pretzel over the next 2 hours, taking the last 2 sets 6-2 each. She was clearly fitter than Muguruza, and seemingly handled the big stage better than her more experienced counterpart (Kenin first GS Final appearance, this was #3 for Muguruza). 

It resulted in a clean sweep for us on our plays, returning another +$2.75 units. Last 8 days have been quite a wild run, and we are now 37-20 over the L8 days for +$19.15 units, and 15-3 over the last 4 days for +$15.65 units.

Aussie Open Day 13 Results (3-0, +$2.75):

✅ Kenin +3 gm (-115) $1.15 / $1.0

✅ Kenin Over 21.5 gm (-130) $1.3 / $1.0
✅ Kenin ML (+150) $0.5 / $0.75

AO Thru Day 13 = 67-48, +$17.5

Aussie Open Men's Final + Saturday 2/1 Picks (1-1, +$0.5):

Some challenger and qualifying action to start us off. Usually don't mess around with lower level matches but have a few guys going today that I know well and that I feel are being mis-priced by the market. 

✅Bagnis ML vs Martinez (-150) $1.5 / $1.0

✖️ Bagnis ML x Mena +3.5 x Johnson ML $0.5 / $1.8

Thiem O3.5 set (-160) $1.6 / $1.0
Thiem O39 (-120) $1.2 / $1.0
Thiem ML (+300) $0.5 / $1.5


Thiem Most Double Fault (-160) $0.8 / $0.5

Aussie Open Men's Final + Saturday 2/1 Handicaps:

Bagnis ML vs Martinez

Bagnis totally mis-priced here. He is a clay court specialist who can actually hang in the first few rounds of ATP main draws on his preferred surface. Martinez, meanwhile, has only won 50% of his clay matches at the Challenger level over the past 12M and has never played a main draw clay match. 

Martinez beat Bagnis in their most recent, likely the reason Bagnis is only -150. However, that meeting took place on Hard Court, where Bagnis game is not threatening at all. In their 2 Clay Court H2H's in 2019, Bagnis won 75% + of his service points while Martinez won just 60%. If they played again at the same serve % ratio, Bagnis would have a 98% chance of winning a best of 3 match.

Mena +3.5 vs Gaio

Gaio a bigger name, but Clay court stats are dead even and Mena is MUCH better against the sample of common opponents. This is Gaio's first match on clay after a run of Hard-Court events and Mena is surface warm having already played 4 matches on Clay in 2020.

Johnson ML vs Kwiatkowski (@ -280)

Wouldn’t play this alone but it makes for a good juicer at the end of the parlay. Johnson profiles better than Kwiatkowski when looking only at Challenger stats and has better numbers vs. their 1 common opponent. Johnson has a history of playing his best tennis in the USA, and the conditions at Newport suit his game well

EPL Bets for 2/1 - 2/2

Will be posting my EPL selections as replies. Haven't had great success historically on EPL (just below breakeven) and its the weakest of our 4 disciplines. We've made some tweaks to the systems and it's performing better this year, so will track here under this tag line.

I'm only betting the Round Robin's with my own money until the track record is longer / more consistent, and my $1.0 unit size is smaller for soccer than it is for Tennis / NFL / NBA (i.e. if you bet $200 a game on NBA / Tennis then do $100 per $1.0 unit here)

With that disclaimer, away we go!

EPL Picks for GW 25 2/1 through 2/2 (2-2, -$1.45)

• ✖️LEI Draw x AVFC +0.5 x NEW PK x WOL ML $1.0 / $14.32
• $0.25 / parlay --> $1.0 total stake
• ✖️LEI Pick x AVFC +0.5 x WOL +0.5 x CPY / SHU Draw $1.0 / $7.5
• $0.25 / parlay --> $1.0 total stake

• (P) LEI Pick vs CHE (-115) $1.15 / $1.0
• ✖️AVFC Pick vs BOU (+130) $1.0 / $1.3 
• ✖️CPY / SHU Draw (+220) $0.45 / $1.0 
• (P) NEW Pick vs NOR (-160) $1.6 / $1.0 
• ✅WOL +0.5 vs MU (-150) $1.5 / $1.0
• ✅BUR +0.75 vs ARS (-145) $1.45 / $1.0 
• TOT / MCY Both Score x O2.5 (-115) 1.15 / $1.0 

EPL Match / Bet Commentary

TOT / MCY Both Score x O2.5 (-115) 1.15 / $1.0

Team sheets just came out and Spurs are set up quite aggressively. MCY will get theirs and this is bet on TOT scoring 1+

BUR +0.75 vs ARS (-145) $1.45 / $1.0 

ARS are still extremely poor on the road and the cavemen BUR plays up top are going to eat lackluster Luiz + co for breakfast on half chances. Good value on the Asian handicap

LEI Pick vs CHE (-115) $1.15 / $1.0

Should be a closely contested match. LEI are 13-3-4 in their last 20 EPL home matches, while CHE come on decent road form as well (they know how to travel). Ultimately think Tie presents the best value here on the ML, but I think a few key edge's give LEI the upper hand on the Pick handicap. 

Both teams are fighting for UCL positions, w/ LEI 8 points ahead of CHE in 3rd place. This puts them in a position of strength, as a draw improves (rather than diminishes) their chances of making the top 4 as CHE need to close the gap. LEI's defensive organization should allow them to keep CHE's attack in check if they commit to that plan - this likely forces CHE to be slightly more aggressive + take the initiative in the game. LEI is set up perfectly to exploit this as a lethal counterattacking outfit. Happy with the draw as we have exposure in a round robin and it would simply push the LEI Pick exposure in the other round robins.

AVFC Pick vs BOU (+130) $1.0 / $1.3 

Villa come in on decent form, winning their last 2 and going 2W - 1L - 2D in their last 5 with the only loss coming to MCY. They have largely put in competent performances and can punish teams who are poorly disciplined on defense. 

"Defensively undisciplined" essentially describes BOU to a T, and I expect a few goals in this game. This is their 2nd meeting this year, and BOU took the 1st 2-1 after a 4th minute penalty and 12th minute goal staked them a 2-0 lead early. Historically, teams who lost a 1st meeting by -1 have been undervalued against the ML in the 2nd meeting, especially when they come in off a draw / victory in their previous game (form indicator). All told, we feel this is a good spot to back AVFC.

CPY / SHU Draw (+220) $0.45 / $1.0 

This match has draw written all over it. SHU escaped with a narrow 1-0 victory at home in the first meeting, but CPY are generally more consistent and solid at home (advantage to them relative to the 1st meeting) and this should be a defensive stalemate. Very solid chance this ends 0-0 or 1-1

NEW Pick vs NOR (-160) $1.6 / $1.0 

NOR are an awful road game, and we have to feel comfortable backing NEW if we have any confidence that they will put in a professional performance. Their form is understated, having Drawn vs WOL / won vs CHE / Draw vs EVE their last 3 times out. This is a step down in class for them, and they should see this as a great opportunity to take 3 points at home against a dead team 

WOL +0.5 vs MU (-150) $1.5 / $1.0

WOL has not fared particularly well on the scoreline in their recent visits to MU, but they have won 2 and drawn 2 of their last 5 H2H's against the Red Devils. WOL has had 2 weeks to prepare for this match, while MU has had multiple cup ties to focus on. This is a classic flat spot for MU, despite the injection of Bruno Fernandes into the team, and a team of that profile is almost always inflated on price in the marketplace to begin with. WOL +0.5 cashes for us in a draw and hits if WOL wins outright - I see the median outcome far enough to that side to justify laying the extra juice / taking the spread handicap

NBA Picks for 1/31/20

Took a bit of a hiatus on the NBA picks as we were deep diving into the tennis and that schedule was rather heavy earlier on in the tournament. We’re going to get back at it now with the load lightening up on tennis.

A word of caution - NBA tends to be very funky leading into and out of the all-star break. Motivation is way less consistent and a lot of players are checked out mentally and ready to go on vacation. We think our strategy and discipline on reading the market and fading the public tends to perform even better in those scenarios (we are aligning ourselves with sharp bettors and casinos who know more about those dynamics than your typical Joe), but a disclaimer is warranted nonetheless. 

Record thus far YTD for 2020 below (this is just since we started posting publicly - I could TELL you how we are running back through late 2018, but unlike many other cappers I’m actually just gonna SHOW you instead). 

YTD = 14-10 ATS, +$0.45 units 

NBA Picks for Friday 1/31:

CHI +5.5 @ BKN $1.1 / $1.0

CHI / BKN U220.5 $1.1 / $1.0

DAL ML @ HOU (+290) $0.35 / $1.0

PHX -1 vs OKC $1.1 / $1.0

PHX / OKC U222.5 $1.1 / $1.0

DAL ML x CHI +5.5 x CHI / BKN U220.5 x PHX -1 $0.5 / $5.70

—-> Round Robin 4 x 3 ($0.125 units per parlay) 

Handicaps + Rationale for NBA plays:

CHI +5.5 @ BKN

Lavine will play for CHI tonight and he has really been the key to everything they want to do over the past month and change. Reading the market, we see ~85% of bets and money on BKN here but the line has not budged off +5.5 at the sharpest book in Vegas (Pinnacle). BKN seems like the sexy side to take here, but if you dig a little deeper you’ll see the only team they’ve beaten since 1/12/20 is DET, and I’m starting to get the sense that Kyrie doesn’t really mesh with the rest of this roster.

CHI pops in my Public Fade x Complacent Opponent System for this matchup – teams getting less than 30% of bets / play against teams that won their previous game as a Favorite have gone 123-74 (62%, 22% ROI) since 2016

CHI / BKN U220.5

Simple play here – this already smells like a flat spot for BKN (see above) and CHI has surprisingly been a strong under team this year as they play hard on D and tend to run a slower pace. Market sees Kyrie playing and wants to bet over – 65% of bets are on the over but the total has dropped to 220 from 223 and there is definitely sharp money playing our side here.

DAL ML @ HOU

Bit of a dart throw here at extremely favorable odds with Doncic out. Market dynamics are good for DAL ML in this spot, and the public is forcing odds makers to overreact somewhat to the injury absence. NBA teams actually tend to play harder initially when missing one of their best players, and the easiest way to grab value against a spread or ML is to handicap motivation and not talent. Further, people seem to have forgotten that the Mavs performed extremely well without Doncic the last time he was hurt – during his 4 game absence, DAL played as follows: Beat MIL by 4, Lost to BOS by 6, Beat PHI by 19, Lost to TOR by 3.

PHX -1 vs OKC

This line makes ZERO sense. OKC has been great on the road this year and PHX has generally played bad for the entirety of the season. That tells me Vegas knows something the public doesn’t. This line opened at OKC -1, before a wave of sharp money hit PHX around 3PM today and pushed the line across zero to PHX -1, despite close to 90% of bets on OKC at the time. PHX is also getting a favorable money split, with only 15% of bets but 35% of the money on that side (this indicates sharp action on PHX). This smells like a flat spot for OKC, let’s make a deal with the devil and lay -1 with PHX

PHX is popping in my sharp money indicator system for tonight. Home teams playing in conference games that satisfy the criteria for that system have gone 115-71 ATS (62%, +20% ROI) since 2016.

PHX / OKC U222.5

79% of bets are on the over, which makes sense given OKC is a high profile team and PHX is known as an offensively oriented outfit. However, OKC tends to play a very slow pace on the road (Under is 14-10, 58.3% in those games) and their shot distribution is skewed towards low EV mid-range jump shots (this is an easy way to depress scoring). 

PHX has a reputation as a high flying / scoring team, but they are only 53% to the over this year. Despite that 79% of bets backing the over, this line came down to 222.5 from 223.5, and there are bigger bets backing the under in this game.

Round Robin 4 x 3: DAL ML x CHI +5.5 x CHI / BKN U220.5 x PHX -1

This is a dart throw. Round Robins create a combination of parlays using the lines you include in the play. In the 4 x 3 Round Robin, you select 4 lines and the book will generate 4 distinct parlays covering all possible combinations of 3 teamers that you can make from that group of 4. If we have an edge vs. the Vig and are hitting above 52.5% of our ATS plays, this method gives us a much higher ROI than a standard 4 team parlay.

We enter unit size as the amount we bet on each parlay (if my unit is $0.25, then a total of $1.0 will be staked cumulatively on the 4 parlays). If we win ¾ bets, we return +3 units (or +$0.75 in that example). If we win all 4, we win +24 units (or $6.0 in the example). NOTE – those examples are based off 4 standard ATS lines at -110. Taking an underdog on the ML will obviously yield a higher return for us if we hit.

This is simply an aggressive way to attack the DAL ML – if they cash, we are in very good shape to make an exponential return on the play here.

AO Finals Picks + Day 12 Results

Let’s GO! Thiem comes from behind to win 3 sets in a row and cash another one for the boys. 

Thiem started slow but really found his groove in the second set. Looked dicey there in set 3 as he was on the verge of throwing up on court, but he stole the breaker and was not really threatened the rest of the match despite sets 3/4 both going to breakers. Pretty clear edge for Thiem as soon as the ball was in play all night, but I remain highly impressed with Zverev this week and feel he could be laying down the the foundation for an big step forward this season. One to watch on the faster hard courts in coming weeks.

That win takes us to 12-3 over the last 3 match days for +$12.9 units. Gonna find a way to attack both finals matches, will advise on confidence level for any picks as well. See below for results from Day 12, will add picks for the finals matches + handicaps below that section later today.

Aussie Open Day 12 Results:

✅Thiem -1.5 sets $2.1 / $2.0

AO Total thru Day 12 = 63-48, +$14.8 units

Aussie Open Day 13 Picks:
Kenin +3 gm (-115) $1.15 / $1.0
Kenin Over 21.5 gm (-130) $1.3 / $1.0
Kenin ML (+150) $0.5 / $0.75

Women’s Final Handicap

Garbine Muguruza vs Sofia Kenin (Kenin +3 @-120 / Kenin ML @ +140 / Over 22 gm @ -110)

A very interesting match! Muguruza comes in with a little more hype, having just beaten Halep in a very tight match, while Kenin comes in somewhat under the radar due to her playing style and the fact that one could argue Barty lost the semi-final more than Kenin won it. Nevertheless, both players come in riding hot form, with their statistical data showing substantial improvements against 2019 performance. On the 6M / 1M sample, Kenin outperforms Muguruza on serve (+9% Serve Hold rate) while this is cancelled out in part by her disadvantage on return (-6% on Serve Break rate). The forecast specific to this data only calls for Kenin to win -1% less serve points than Muguruza, which implies a 45% chance of winning the match.

Notably, much has been made of the improvement Muguruza has made this tournament vs. her data from a relatively poor 2019. No real argument against that narrative, but it does warrant further examination as we have not heard anything about the trend in Kenin’s data. Here are the Serve Hold / Serve Break delta’s from Kenin’s perspective over a 1Y / 6M time horizon and for the Aussie Open only:

• 1Y: Kenin +5.5% on Serve Hold / -4.6% on Serve Break (+0.9% Dominance Ratio)
• 6M: Kenin +8.3% Serve Hold / -3.6% on Serve Break (+4.7% Dominance Ratio)
• AO Data: +9.6% Serve Hold / -5.6% on Serve Break  (+4% Dominance Ratio)

As we can see, while Muguruza’s improvement has been notable, the Kenin has improved just as much, if not more, over the past 1Y. Her tournament data is actually superior to Muguruza, despite the dominance the Spaniard has displayed through recent rounds, and this is not something you would expect just skimming news coverage of this matchup or looking at the betting odds (you guys can already see where this is going). Keep the above in mind; we will come back to it in a few paragraphs…

Looking at performance vs. Common Opponents, we restricted the sample to include only players that Muguruza has played in 2020 (to account for her improvement over 2019 within the data set). Even doing this (which is generous for Muguruza as it essentially assumes a 100% chance of her playing at the highest level she is capable of), Kenin still wins Serve points at a +9% higher rate and only wins Return points at a -5% lower rate. This data produces a forecast for Kenin to out serveMuguruza by 1.4%, implying a 57% chance of Kenin winning the match.

Big takeaways from the sub-data big advantages for Kenin on 2nd Serve win rate (+8% over 6M / +15% at AO / +10% vs. common) alongside surprisingly equal 2nd Return win rates. Given her big edge on 2nd Serve and relatively equal 2nd Return performance, I would expect Kenin to comfortably outperform Muguruza in 2nd serve scenarios throughout this match. Given the fact that we expect a battle here and the generally tense nature of GS finals, an edge like that can make the difference between pinching a set in a tiebreaker and losing it outright (see Kenin v Barty).

Lastly, these 2 met in Beijing in November, and Kenin was priced at a -200 ML favorite in that match. While Muguruza has improved her level substantially since that time, we also laid out an argument above that Kenin has done exactly the same herself. With that said, jump from -200 favorite to a +140 underdog Kenin’s price in less than 2 months is simply not justified in the data, and is purely a result of public perception and recency bias affecting the betting market.

Kenin out served Muguruza by +10% in that matchup, and accounting for both of their statistical deltas / improvement from 2019 to the last 1M, we arrive at a H2H forecast for Kenin to out serve Muguruza by 4.1%, implying a 71% chance of her winning the match (ML = -240). I think this is slightly aggressive and we likely adjust that forecast down in isolation, simply because this is Kenin’s 1st GS final and Muguruza has been there before. That said, 4% is a large delta and even an aggressive adjustment would still make Kenin the favorite.

Combining all 3 models results in forecasted Serve win rates for Kenin at 60.4% and Muguruza at 59.2%, implying a 57% chance of Kenin winning the match (ML = -130), a 79% chance of Kenin winning at least 1 set and a 30% chance of her winning the match in straight sets. We also price a 17% chance of a tiebreaker in any given set, and a 28% chance of any set going to 12/13 games. The court conditions aren’t a huge edge either way, but likely favor Kenin to some degree given her game style and the fact that Muguruza prefers to absorb her opponent’s pace / use it to generate her own power / redirect. Muguruza also isn’t great when forced to hit the ball on the run – getting draw into long exchanges with a baseliner featuring the grit Kenin has displayed over the last 2 weeks will likely result in a higher error rate on her end.

With that being said, we obviously want to back Kenin here. I think it’s reasonable to do so on either the game spread @ +3, ML @ +140, or via taking over on total games @ 22 (this will be a dogfight and slower courts favor Over on totals, especially in the women’s game as it becomes more difficult to serve out sets  matches).