I'm only betting the Round Robin's with my own money until the track record is longer / more consistent, and my $1.0 unit size is smaller for soccer than it is for Tennis / NFL / NBA (i.e. if you bet $200 a game on NBA / Tennis then do $100 per $1.0 unit here)
With that disclaimer, away we go!
- ✖️LEI Draw x AVFC +0.5 x NEW PK x WOL ML $1.0 / $14.32
- $0.25 / parlay --> $1.0 total stake
- ✖️LEI Pick x AVFC +0.5 x WOL +0.5 x CPY / SHU Draw $1.0 / $7.5
- $0.25 / parlay --> $1.0 total stake
- (P) LEI Pick vs CHE (-115) $1.15 / $1.0
- ✖️AVFC Pick vs BOU (+130) $1.0 / $1.3
- ✖️CPY / SHU Draw (+220) $0.45 / $1.0
- (P) NEW Pick vs NOR (-160) $1.6 / $1.0
- ✅WOL +0.5 vs MU (-150) $1.5 / $1.0
- ✅BUR +0.75 vs ARS (-145) $1.45 / $1.0
- TOT / MCY Both Score x O2.5 (-115) 1.15 / $1.0
EPL Match / Bet Commentary
TOT / MCY Both Score x O2.5 (-115) 1.15 / $1.0
Team sheets just came out and Spurs are set up quite aggressively. MCY will get theirs and this is bet on TOT scoring 1+
BUR +0.75 vs ARS (-145) $1.45 / $1.0
Team sheets just came out and Spurs are set up quite aggressively. MCY will get theirs and this is bet on TOT scoring 1+
BUR +0.75 vs ARS (-145) $1.45 / $1.0
ARS are still extremely poor on the road and the cavemen BUR plays up top are going to eat lackluster Luiz + co for breakfast on half chances. Good value on the Asian handicap
LEI Pick vs CHE (-115) $1.15 / $1.0
Should be a closely contested match. LEI are 13-3-4 in their last 20 EPL home matches, while CHE come on decent road form as well (they know how to travel). Ultimately think Tie presents the best value here on the ML, but I think a few key edge's give LEI the upper hand on the Pick handicap.
Both teams are fighting for UCL positions, w/ LEI 8 points ahead of CHE in 3rd place. This puts them in a position of strength, as a draw improves (rather than diminishes) their chances of making the top 4 as CHE need to close the gap. LEI's defensive organization should allow them to keep CHE's attack in check if they commit to that plan - this likely forces CHE to be slightly more aggressive + take the initiative in the game. LEI is set up perfectly to exploit this as a lethal counterattacking outfit. Happy with the draw as we have exposure in a round robin and it would simply push the LEI Pick exposure in the other round robins.
Villa come in on decent form, winning their last 2 and going 2W - 1L - 2D in their last 5 with the only loss coming to MCY. They have largely put in competent performances and can punish teams who are poorly disciplined on defense.
"Defensively undisciplined" essentially describes BOU to a T, and I expect a few goals in this game. This is their 2nd meeting this year, and BOU took the 1st 2-1 after a 4th minute penalty and 12th minute goal staked them a 2-0 lead early. Historically, teams who lost a 1st meeting by -1 have been undervalued against the ML in the 2nd meeting, especially when they come in off a draw / victory in their previous game (form indicator). All told, we feel this is a good spot to back AVFC.
CPY / SHU Draw (+220) $0.45 / $1.0
This match has draw written all over it. SHU escaped with a narrow 1-0 victory at home in the first meeting, but CPY are generally more consistent and solid at home (advantage to them relative to the 1st meeting) and this should be a defensive stalemate. Very solid chance this ends 0-0 or 1-1
NEW Pick vs NOR (-160) $1.6 / $1.0
NOR are an awful road game, and we have to feel comfortable backing NEW if we have any confidence that they will put in a professional performance. Their form is understated, having Drawn vs WOL / won vs CHE / Draw vs EVE their last 3 times out. This is a step down in class for them, and they should see this as a great opportunity to take 3 points at home against a dead team
WOL +0.5 vs MU (-150) $1.5 / $1.0
WOL has not fared particularly well on the scoreline in their recent visits to MU, but they have won 2 and drawn 2 of their last 5 H2H's against the Red Devils. WOL has had 2 weeks to prepare for this match, while MU has had multiple cup ties to focus on. This is a classic flat spot for MU, despite the injection of Bruno Fernandes into the team, and a team of that profile is almost always inflated on price in the marketplace to begin with. WOL +0.5 cashes for us in a draw and hits if WOL wins outright - I see the median outcome far enough to that side to justify laying the extra juice / taking the spread handicap
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