A word of caution - NBA tends to be very funky leading into and out of the all-star break. Motivation is way less consistent and a lot of players are checked out mentally and ready to go on vacation. We think our strategy and discipline on reading the market and fading the public tends to perform even better in those scenarios (we are aligning ourselves with sharp bettors and casinos who know more about those dynamics than your typical Joe), but a disclaimer is warranted nonetheless.
Record thus far YTD for 2020 below (this is just since we started posting publicly - I could TELL you how we are running back through late 2018, but unlike many other cappers I’m actually just gonna SHOW you instead).
YTD = 14-10 ATS, +$0.45 units
NBA Picks for Friday 1/31:
CHI +5.5 @ BKN $1.1 / $1.0
CHI / BKN U220.5 $1.1 / $1.0
DAL ML @ HOU (+290) $0.35 / $1.0
PHX -1 vs OKC $1.1 / $1.0
PHX / OKC U222.5 $1.1 / $1.0
DAL ML x CHI +5.5 x CHI / BKN U220.5 x PHX -1 $0.5 / $5.70
—-> Round Robin 4 x 3 ($0.125 units per parlay)
Handicaps + Rationale for NBA plays:
CHI +5.5 @ BKN
Lavine will play for CHI tonight and he has really been the key to everything they want to do over the past month and change. Reading the market, we see ~85% of bets and money on BKN here but the line has not budged off +5.5 at the sharpest book in Vegas (Pinnacle). BKN seems like the sexy side to take here, but if you dig a little deeper you’ll see the only team they’ve beaten since 1/12/20 is DET, and I’m starting to get the sense that Kyrie doesn’t really mesh with the rest of this roster.
CHI pops in my Public Fade x Complacent Opponent System for this matchup – teams getting less than 30% of bets / play against teams that won their previous game as a Favorite have gone 123-74 (62%, 22% ROI) since 2016
CHI / BKN U220.5
Simple play here – this already smells like a flat spot for BKN (see above) and CHI has surprisingly been a strong under team this year as they play hard on D and tend to run a slower pace. Market sees Kyrie playing and wants to bet over – 65% of bets are on the over but the total has dropped to 220 from 223 and there is definitely sharp money playing our side here.
DAL ML @ HOU
Bit of a dart throw here at extremely favorable odds with Doncic out. Market dynamics are good for DAL ML in this spot, and the public is forcing odds makers to overreact somewhat to the injury absence. NBA teams actually tend to play harder initially when missing one of their best players, and the easiest way to grab value against a spread or ML is to handicap motivation and not talent. Further, people seem to have forgotten that the Mavs performed extremely well without Doncic the last time he was hurt – during his 4 game absence, DAL played as follows: Beat MIL by 4, Lost to BOS by 6, Beat PHI by 19, Lost to TOR by 3.
PHX -1 vs OKC
This line makes ZERO sense. OKC has been great on the road this year and PHX has generally played bad for the entirety of the season. That tells me Vegas knows something the public doesn’t. This line opened at OKC -1, before a wave of sharp money hit PHX around 3PM today and pushed the line across zero to PHX -1, despite close to 90% of bets on OKC at the time. PHX is also getting a favorable money split, with only 15% of bets but 35% of the money on that side (this indicates sharp action on PHX). This smells like a flat spot for OKC, let’s make a deal with the devil and lay -1 with PHX
PHX is popping in my sharp money indicator system for tonight. Home teams playing in conference games that satisfy the criteria for that system have gone 115-71 ATS (62%, +20% ROI) since 2016.
PHX / OKC U222.5
79% of bets are on the over, which makes sense given OKC is a high profile team and PHX is known as an offensively oriented outfit. However, OKC tends to play a very slow pace on the road (Under is 14-10, 58.3% in those games) and their shot distribution is skewed towards low EV mid-range jump shots (this is an easy way to depress scoring).
PHX has a reputation as a high flying / scoring team, but they are only 53% to the over this year. Despite that 79% of bets backing the over, this line came down to 222.5 from 223.5, and there are bigger bets backing the under in this game.
Round Robin 4 x 3: DAL ML x CHI +5.5 x CHI / BKN U220.5 x PHX -1
This is a dart throw. Round Robins create a combination of parlays using the lines you include in the play. In the 4 x 3 Round Robin, you select 4 lines and the book will generate 4 distinct parlays covering all possible combinations of 3 teamers that you can make from that group of 4. If we have an edge vs. the Vig and are hitting above 52.5% of our ATS plays, this method gives us a much higher ROI than a standard 4 team parlay.
We enter unit size as the amount we bet on each parlay (if my unit is $0.25, then a total of $1.0 will be staked cumulatively on the 4 parlays). If we win ¾ bets, we return +3 units (or +$0.75 in that example). If we win all 4, we win +24 units (or $6.0 in the example). NOTE – those examples are based off 4 standard ATS lines at -110. Taking an underdog on the ML will obviously yield a higher return for us if we hit.
This is simply an aggressive way to attack the DAL ML – if they cash, we are in very good shape to make an exponential return on the play here.
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