Super Bowl Thread: 49ers vs Chiefs
Spread = SF +1.5
Total = 54
Will post my plays + analysis below at the end of this thought bubble. Will start with my opinion on the 1 key issue in this handicap that determines what side of the spread you are on
SF's D played at an elite level wk 1-9, tailed off wk 10-17, then reverted to elite form in the playoffs. This is skewing their full year numbers defensively, and its impacting the point spread as a result. However, we can account for this with my DVOA Point Spread Calculator. I saw significant variance in the projected point spreads (working off DVOA) when using: -Full Season DVOA -Weighted DVOA (wk 10-17 greater weight) -Weighted DVOA + only wk 1-9 for SF D
Traditional season long metrics would make this game somewhere between Pick and KC-1. Given that SF got super banged up around wk 10 and only got healthy again on the playoff bye, I think it makes sense to use their week 1-9 data for Def. Doing so results in projected spread of SF -2.
Takeaway: where you stand on what level we get from SF D (early season elite / late season poor) is a proxy for how you should bet this spread. I expect SF's D to play closer to their early season / elite form, but is subjective and opinions may vary.
If we get "good SF D" here, the gap between KC Off (Elite) and SF D (elite) is much smaller than the gap between SF Off (very good) and KC D (average). I see more holes in the KC D than SF D that can be exploited with a 2 week game planning window, and its possible SF actually has a coaching edge in this game as a result (while I'm certain the market is pricing Reid as an edge over Shanahan - whatever happened to Reid's reputation as someone who tightens up for BIG games).
Conclusion: I see a # of match up tailwinds for SF and while I think KC's Off has successful stretches (they're impossible to contain for an entire game), elite D has a history of at least slowing down elite Off in the Super Bowl. SF should control the clock, move the ball almost at will, and make enough D stops to bring it home
NOTE: There is a ton of correlation between SF winning x the under 54 hitting. If SF wins, it'll be via ball control and an upside performance on D. Total is already inflated at 54, sharp to the under, and we want to attack that correlation in a parlay.
Additionally: Taking 1H under + live 2H over is always a good play in super bowl as well. Point distribution is more skewed to 2H - teams usually come out jacked up + nervous while Offenses are conservative to start / lack rhythm because of how unusual pregame routines are at the SB. Def is typically a better expression of intensity while Off requires poise and timing, so I like the idea off attacking lower than expected scoring in the first half (despite how scary KC's offense is)
Here is my Super Bowl Bet Card:
- unit sizes included for relative scale - $1.0 = typical bet on an NFL game:
SF +1.5 (-110) $1.1 / $1.0
SF +1.5 x U54.5 (+250) $0.5 / $1.25
1H Under 26.5 (-120) $1.2 / $1.0
2H Over 27 (-100) $0.5 / $0.5
-->take pre-gm if available
DVOA matchup dashboard for Chiefs v 49ers below for those interested:
Organized to compare relevant position groups (SF OL vs KC DL, for example) on key metrics. Positive DVOA is good for Off while negative is good for Def. If confused, refer to the rankings:
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