AO Finals Picks + Day 12 Results

Let’s GO! Thiem comes from behind to win 3 sets in a row and cash another one for the boys. 

Thiem started slow but really found his groove in the second set. Looked dicey there in set 3 as he was on the verge of throwing up on court, but he stole the breaker and was not really threatened the rest of the match despite sets 3/4 both going to breakers. Pretty clear edge for Thiem as soon as the ball was in play all night, but I remain highly impressed with Zverev this week and feel he could be laying down the the foundation for an big step forward this season. One to watch on the faster hard courts in coming weeks.

That win takes us to 12-3 over the last 3 match days for +$12.9 units. Gonna find a way to attack both finals matches, will advise on confidence level for any picks as well. See below for results from Day 12, will add picks for the finals matches + handicaps below that section later today.

Aussie Open Day 12 Results:

✅Thiem -1.5 sets $2.1 / $2.0

AO Total thru Day 12 = 63-48, +$14.8 units

Aussie Open Day 13 Picks:
Kenin +3 gm (-115) $1.15 / $1.0
Kenin Over 21.5 gm (-130) $1.3 / $1.0
Kenin ML (+150) $0.5 / $0.75

Women’s Final Handicap

Garbine Muguruza vs Sofia Kenin (Kenin +3 @-120 / Kenin ML @ +140 / Over 22 gm @ -110)

A very interesting match! Muguruza comes in with a little more hype, having just beaten Halep in a very tight match, while Kenin comes in somewhat under the radar due to her playing style and the fact that one could argue Barty lost the semi-final more than Kenin won it. Nevertheless, both players come in riding hot form, with their statistical data showing substantial improvements against 2019 performance. On the 6M / 1M sample, Kenin outperforms Muguruza on serve (+9% Serve Hold rate) while this is cancelled out in part by her disadvantage on return (-6% on Serve Break rate). The forecast specific to this data only calls for Kenin to win -1% less serve points than Muguruza, which implies a 45% chance of winning the match.

Notably, much has been made of the improvement Muguruza has made this tournament vs. her data from a relatively poor 2019. No real argument against that narrative, but it does warrant further examination as we have not heard anything about the trend in Kenin’s data. Here are the Serve Hold / Serve Break delta’s from Kenin’s perspective over a 1Y / 6M time horizon and for the Aussie Open only:

• 1Y: Kenin +5.5% on Serve Hold / -4.6% on Serve Break (+0.9% Dominance Ratio)
• 6M: Kenin +8.3% Serve Hold / -3.6% on Serve Break (+4.7% Dominance Ratio)
• AO Data: +9.6% Serve Hold / -5.6% on Serve Break  (+4% Dominance Ratio)

As we can see, while Muguruza’s improvement has been notable, the Kenin has improved just as much, if not more, over the past 1Y. Her tournament data is actually superior to Muguruza, despite the dominance the Spaniard has displayed through recent rounds, and this is not something you would expect just skimming news coverage of this matchup or looking at the betting odds (you guys can already see where this is going). Keep the above in mind; we will come back to it in a few paragraphs…

Looking at performance vs. Common Opponents, we restricted the sample to include only players that Muguruza has played in 2020 (to account for her improvement over 2019 within the data set). Even doing this (which is generous for Muguruza as it essentially assumes a 100% chance of her playing at the highest level she is capable of), Kenin still wins Serve points at a +9% higher rate and only wins Return points at a -5% lower rate. This data produces a forecast for Kenin to out serveMuguruza by 1.4%, implying a 57% chance of Kenin winning the match.

Big takeaways from the sub-data big advantages for Kenin on 2nd Serve win rate (+8% over 6M / +15% at AO / +10% vs. common) alongside surprisingly equal 2nd Return win rates. Given her big edge on 2nd Serve and relatively equal 2nd Return performance, I would expect Kenin to comfortably outperform Muguruza in 2nd serve scenarios throughout this match. Given the fact that we expect a battle here and the generally tense nature of GS finals, an edge like that can make the difference between pinching a set in a tiebreaker and losing it outright (see Kenin v Barty).

Lastly, these 2 met in Beijing in November, and Kenin was priced at a -200 ML favorite in that match. While Muguruza has improved her level substantially since that time, we also laid out an argument above that Kenin has done exactly the same herself. With that said, jump from -200 favorite to a +140 underdog Kenin’s price in less than 2 months is simply not justified in the data, and is purely a result of public perception and recency bias affecting the betting market.

Kenin out served Muguruza by +10% in that matchup, and accounting for both of their statistical deltas / improvement from 2019 to the last 1M, we arrive at a H2H forecast for Kenin to out serve Muguruza by 4.1%, implying a 71% chance of her winning the match (ML = -240). I think this is slightly aggressive and we likely adjust that forecast down in isolation, simply because this is Kenin’s 1st GS final and Muguruza has been there before. That said, 4% is a large delta and even an aggressive adjustment would still make Kenin the favorite.

Combining all 3 models results in forecasted Serve win rates for Kenin at 60.4% and Muguruza at 59.2%, implying a 57% chance of Kenin winning the match (ML = -130), a 79% chance of Kenin winning at least 1 set and a 30% chance of her winning the match in straight sets. We also price a 17% chance of a tiebreaker in any given set, and a 28% chance of any set going to 12/13 games. The court conditions aren’t a huge edge either way, but likely favor Kenin to some degree given her game style and the fact that Muguruza prefers to absorb her opponent’s pace / use it to generate her own power / redirect. Muguruza also isn’t great when forced to hit the ball on the run – getting draw into long exchanges with a baseliner featuring the grit Kenin has displayed over the last 2 weeks will likely result in a higher error rate on her end.

With that being said, we obviously want to back Kenin here. I think it’s reasonable to do so on either the game spread @ +3, ML @ +140, or via taking over on total games @ 22 (this will be a dogfight and slower courts favor Over on totals, especially in the women’s game as it becomes more difficult to serve out sets  matches).