Regardless, its all one long session. We will keep firing away on 3-5 contrarian picks every night and hopefully drive moderate + consistent profits over a long time horizon. See below for last night's graded action and scroll past that for tonight's picks and rationale behind them.
NBA Results for Friday 1/31 (1-3 ATS, -$3.15 units)
✖️CHI +5.5 @ BKN $1.1 / $1.0
✖️CHI / BKN U220.5 $1.1 / $1.0
✖️DAL ML @ HOU (+290) $0.35 / $1.0
✅PHX -1 vs OKC $1.1 / $1.0
✖️PHX / OKC U222.5 $1.1 / $1.0
✖️DAL ML x CHI +5.5 x CHI / BKN U220.5 x PHX -1 $0.5 / $5.70
—-> Round Robin 4 x 3 ($0.125 units per parlay)
YTD = 15-13 ATS, -$2.7 units
On to picks for Saturday...
NBA Picks for 2/1 (0-0 ATS, $0)
ORL +3 vs MIA $1.1 / $1.0
PHI -1.5 vs BOS $1.1 / $1.0
PHI / BOS U213 $1.1 / $1.0
ATL +4 vs DAL $1.1 / $1.0
ATL / DAL U236 $1.1 / $1.0
UTA -6 vs POR
SAC +6 vs LAL $1.1 / $1.0
Rationale to be added shortly:
MIA is getting 85% of spread bets and only 65% of the money (bigger bets on ORL, but book liability on MIA) and this line has held steady at +2.5 / +3 all day. Fournier will play today, and the Magic have generally draw sharp money when they have a relatively full complement of players available.
MIA beat them handily at home a few weeks ago, and that is likely skewing the public's perception of how this game plays out. MIA is way worse on the road than at home (10-12 ATS road / 16-8 ATS home), so the recency bias stemming from the previous matchup is likely resulting in MIA's home / road performance gap not being properly priced into this line.
PHI -1.5 vs BOS $1.1 / $1.0 + PHI / BOS U213 $1.1 / $1.0
There is sharp money on both PHI and the Under here with BOS seeing 70% of spread bets but the line tricking from BOS -2 down to PHI -1 throughout the day. Horford will play for PHI while Kemba Walker will be missing in action for BOS.
PHI hits on one of my favorite spot systems that I use to source picks. Maynard's Theory filters look to isolate favorites of -1 to -6.5 + playing in a non division road game + coming off a loss. This tends to isolate teams that are highly motivated in that game, and the system has gone 213 - 107 (67%, +30% ROI) since 2004.
78 % of bets are on the under and the line has still dropped from 213.5 to 213. That type of reverse line movement (RLM) indicates sharp money on the under, and these two teams have generally played slower paced / more defensive matchups in recent meetings
ATL / DAL U236 $1.1 / $1.0 + ATL +4 vs DAL $1.1 / $1.0
Porzingis and Doncic are out here for DAL, which will surely mess with their rotation and rhythm. ATL is one of the sharper spread bets on the board, and while I hate betting on them at below +7.5 I'm gonna hold my nose and go with the side getting 30% of bets and a substantially higher % of the money split
Similar story for the Under - very difficult to bet against points in an ATL game but casino's have set this line here for a reason, knowing full well people tend to play Over on both of these team. Further, this hits a totals system that have had strong success backing:
Games featuring the following criteria have gone Under at 552-386 (57%) since 2004 - Home Team that hits Over at 58%+ at home + both teams less than 2 days of rest (pace is impacted) + O/U moves down by 0.5 points of more from open to close
UTA -6 vs POR $1.1 / $1.0
UTA got hit with sharp money in the afternoon, causing this line to move from -5 to -6 despite less than 50% of bets on that side. Teams that are favored + fit my sharp money filter have gone 118-85 (58%, +13% ROI) since 2016. POR should also be ripe for an emotional let down after the Kobe game in LA last night, easily could see this being a flat spot for them
SAC +6 vs LAL $1.1 / $1.0
Similar dynamics as UTA, SAC is facing a team that had an extremely emotional game last night, is on a B2B and primed for an emotional let down / flat spot. Further, everyone AND they're mother wants to bet Lebron tonight - 90% of spread bets are on LAL, but the line has not budged off +6.5. Would not be surprised if we get a +7 late, and that's when sharp money will pour in on SAC
PHI -1.5 vs BOS $1.1 / $1.0
PHI / BOS U213 $1.1 / $1.0
ATL +4 vs DAL $1.1 / $1.0
ATL / DAL U236 $1.1 / $1.0
UTA -6 vs POR
SAC +6 vs LAL $1.1 / $1.0
Rationale to be added shortly:
NBA Picks 2/1 Rationale:
ORL +3 vs MIA $1.1 / $1.0MIA is getting 85% of spread bets and only 65% of the money (bigger bets on ORL, but book liability on MIA) and this line has held steady at +2.5 / +3 all day. Fournier will play today, and the Magic have generally draw sharp money when they have a relatively full complement of players available.
MIA beat them handily at home a few weeks ago, and that is likely skewing the public's perception of how this game plays out. MIA is way worse on the road than at home (10-12 ATS road / 16-8 ATS home), so the recency bias stemming from the previous matchup is likely resulting in MIA's home / road performance gap not being properly priced into this line.
PHI -1.5 vs BOS $1.1 / $1.0 + PHI / BOS U213 $1.1 / $1.0
There is sharp money on both PHI and the Under here with BOS seeing 70% of spread bets but the line tricking from BOS -2 down to PHI -1 throughout the day. Horford will play for PHI while Kemba Walker will be missing in action for BOS.
PHI hits on one of my favorite spot systems that I use to source picks. Maynard's Theory filters look to isolate favorites of -1 to -6.5 + playing in a non division road game + coming off a loss. This tends to isolate teams that are highly motivated in that game, and the system has gone 213 - 107 (67%, +30% ROI) since 2004.
78 % of bets are on the under and the line has still dropped from 213.5 to 213. That type of reverse line movement (RLM) indicates sharp money on the under, and these two teams have generally played slower paced / more defensive matchups in recent meetings
ATL / DAL U236 $1.1 / $1.0 + ATL +4 vs DAL $1.1 / $1.0
Porzingis and Doncic are out here for DAL, which will surely mess with their rotation and rhythm. ATL is one of the sharper spread bets on the board, and while I hate betting on them at below +7.5 I'm gonna hold my nose and go with the side getting 30% of bets and a substantially higher % of the money split
Similar story for the Under - very difficult to bet against points in an ATL game but casino's have set this line here for a reason, knowing full well people tend to play Over on both of these team. Further, this hits a totals system that have had strong success backing:
Games featuring the following criteria have gone Under at 552-386 (57%) since 2004 - Home Team that hits Over at 58%+ at home + both teams less than 2 days of rest (pace is impacted) + O/U moves down by 0.5 points of more from open to close
UTA -6 vs POR $1.1 / $1.0
UTA got hit with sharp money in the afternoon, causing this line to move from -5 to -6 despite less than 50% of bets on that side. Teams that are favored + fit my sharp money filter have gone 118-85 (58%, +13% ROI) since 2016. POR should also be ripe for an emotional let down after the Kobe game in LA last night, easily could see this being a flat spot for them
SAC +6 vs LAL $1.1 / $1.0
Similar dynamics as UTA, SAC is facing a team that had an extremely emotional game last night, is on a B2B and primed for an emotional let down / flat spot. Further, everyone AND they're mother wants to bet Lebron tonight - 90% of spread bets are on LAL, but the line has not budged off +6.5. Would not be surprised if we get a +7 late, and that's when sharp money will pour in on SAC
No comments:
Post a Comment