Thiem gave Djokovic everything he could handle in the final, and frankly should have been considered a heavy favorite to win the match going into the 4th set up 2-1. Djokovic looked to be struggling physically at that point, and Thiem was clearly the most physical challenge he had to face through the entire tournament.
I cannot overstate how impressed I am with the Austrian. He has made huge strides in his tactical approach to hard courts, and has also upgraded his physical conditioning + power of his ground strokes over the past year and change. He has now played 3 GS finals vs. Big 3 opposition, registering the following performances in chronological order:
- 1st Final = 0 sets won vs Nadal (Clay)
- 2nd Final = 1 set won vs Nadal (Clay)
- 3rd Final = 2 sets won vs Djoko (Hard)
He's clearly getting closer, learning how to navigate the pressures / swings of a GS final as he matures and was a coinflip bounce here / there away from putting Djokovic away. We haven't seen much of him on Clay courts since mid 2019, and I suspect some of the improvements to his Hard Court game (more physical than tactical) since then will translate into further improvement on Clay.
This was the first time Djokovic has not been able to simply rely on physical superiority late in a GS final (he has historically been able to wear Nadal and Federer down in those matches if all else fails), and it was clear that Thiem was hurting him throughout the entire match with the weight of his ground strokes
Given his growing portfolio of experience with deep GS runs and the likelihood he continues to improve as we move through the clay season, I will be betting Thiem to win Roland Garros outright the minute that line becomes available.
Aussie Open Men's Final + Saturday 2/1 Picks (3-1, +$2.0):
✅Bagnis ML vs Martinez (-150) $1.5 / $1.0
✖️ Bagnis ML x Mena +3.5 x Johnson ML $0.5 / $1.8
✅Thiem O3.5 set (-160) $1.6 / $1.0
✅Thiem O39 (-120) $1.2 / $1.0
✖️Thiem ML (+300) $0.5 / $1.5
(P) Thiem Most Double Fault (-160) $0.8 / $0.5
Australian Open Record + Return = 69 - 49 (58.5%), +$19.05 units
What a run to close the tournament. We finished on an absolute heater, going 17-4 for +$17.15 on the last 5 days of the event.
Going forward, we will continue posting our picks to twitter and the blog. We tend to be a little lighter early on in tournaments (ESPECIALLY right after slams) to get a better feel for surface conditions and player motivation / fitness dynamics before playing heavier slates.
Thanks for following along, and show us some love with a like + RT if you've been crushing it with us for the past 2 weeks!
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