Tennis Picks for 2/1 + Australian Open Final

VICTORY!!!! Kenin was truly spectacular last night - the nerve on her to swing that match from 1-0 down was remarkable. Looked dicey in the first set as Muguruzua came out very aggressively, but Kenin proceeded to methodically turn her opponent into a pretzel over the next 2 hours, taking the last 2 sets 6-2 each. She was clearly fitter than Muguruza, and seemingly handled the big stage better than her more experienced counterpart (Kenin first GS Final appearance, this was #3 for Muguruza). 

It resulted in a clean sweep for us on our plays, returning another +$2.75 units. Last 8 days have been quite a wild run, and we are now 37-20 over the L8 days for +$19.15 units, and 15-3 over the last 4 days for +$15.65 units.

Aussie Open Day 13 Results (3-0, +$2.75):

✅ Kenin +3 gm (-115) $1.15 / $1.0

✅ Kenin Over 21.5 gm (-130) $1.3 / $1.0
✅ Kenin ML (+150) $0.5 / $0.75

AO Thru Day 13 = 67-48, +$17.5

Aussie Open Men's Final + Saturday 2/1 Picks (1-1, +$0.5):

Some challenger and qualifying action to start us off. Usually don't mess around with lower level matches but have a few guys going today that I know well and that I feel are being mis-priced by the market. 

✅Bagnis ML vs Martinez (-150) $1.5 / $1.0

✖️ Bagnis ML x Mena +3.5 x Johnson ML $0.5 / $1.8

Thiem O3.5 set (-160) $1.6 / $1.0
Thiem O39 (-120) $1.2 / $1.0
Thiem ML (+300) $0.5 / $1.5


Thiem Most Double Fault (-160) $0.8 / $0.5

Aussie Open Men's Final + Saturday 2/1 Handicaps:

Bagnis ML vs Martinez

Bagnis totally mis-priced here. He is a clay court specialist who can actually hang in the first few rounds of ATP main draws on his preferred surface. Martinez, meanwhile, has only won 50% of his clay matches at the Challenger level over the past 12M and has never played a main draw clay match. 

Martinez beat Bagnis in their most recent, likely the reason Bagnis is only -150. However, that meeting took place on Hard Court, where Bagnis game is not threatening at all. In their 2 Clay Court H2H's in 2019, Bagnis won 75% + of his service points while Martinez won just 60%. If they played again at the same serve % ratio, Bagnis would have a 98% chance of winning a best of 3 match.

Mena +3.5 vs Gaio

Gaio a bigger name, but Clay court stats are dead even and Mena is MUCH better against the sample of common opponents. This is Gaio's first match on clay after a run of Hard-Court events and Mena is surface warm having already played 4 matches on Clay in 2020.

Johnson ML vs Kwiatkowski (@ -280)

Wouldn’t play this alone but it makes for a good juicer at the end of the parlay. Johnson profiles better than Kwiatkowski when looking only at Challenger stats and has better numbers vs. their 1 common opponent. Johnson has a history of playing his best tennis in the USA, and the conditions at Newport suit his game well