Tennis Bet Card for Monday 2/17 (2-0, +$2.1)
✅Gerasimov ML vs Ruus (+110) $1.0 / $1.1
✅Ymer ML vs Gasquet (-135) $2.0 / $1.5
Vondrousova ML x Garin ML (-120) $1.2 / $1.0
Barrere ML vs Paire (+120) $1.2 / $1.0
Verdasco ML vs Andujar (-160) $1.6 / $1.0
Baena +2.5 gm vs Delbonis (-120) $1.2 / $1.0
Baena ML (+130) $0.5 / $0.65
Mannarino ML vs Kwon (Pick) $1.0 / $1.0
Futures for Mon 2/17 - Sun 2/23
Mannarino to win Del Rey Quarter (+500) $1.0 / $5.0
Fucsovics to win ATP Marseille (+2800) $0.5 / $14.0
Auger to win Quarter (+225) $1.0 / $2.25
Fucsovics to win Quarter (+500) $1.0 / $5.0
(6 AM) Gerasimov vs Ruusuvuori (Gerasimov ML @ +110)
The quick courts will suit Gerasimov’s game-style here and he shows a substantial edge in Trailing Indoor Hard-Court Data and Common Opponent performance. Gerasimov has roughly equal serve performance over the past 1Y / 6M in ATP tour level matches on Indoor Hard court but has a +7.5% / +9% Serve Break delta across those two data horizons.
Against common opponents, Gerasimov has positive Serve Hold / Break deltas of +4.7% and +10.2%. Model prices him as a significant favorite, and while Ruusuvuori ultimately has the higher ceiling and is the better-known name at this point, I’ll take my chances with Gerasimov ML
(9 AM) Mikael Ymer vs Richard Gasquet (Ymer ML @ -135)
Ymer comes in on an upswing, having seemingly made the break from Challenger dominant to Tour level player. He’s won 7/11 matches in the last 3M and has shown a steady 6M uptrend not only in the level of his play, but his ability to rise to the level of strong quality opponents. Gasquet will always be talented and dangerous, but he comes off a year severely hampered by injuries and has only played 3 matches in the last 3M (2-1). Notably, Gasquet DID NOT look very healthy the last time out a week ago (retired down 6-1 / 1-0). The speed of these courts typically rewards attacking play, but Ymer can counterpunch well and loves an indoor court (16-6 last 1Y across all levels). His ability to draw Gasquet into longer rallies will put pressure on an ailing body and should give him an edge that escalates the longer the match wears on.
Looking at trailing data, Ymer is a deserved favorite. Hold / Break delta’s vs. Ymer over the past 1Y (-10% / +11%) and 6M (-4.5% / +14%) actually show him to be the better player in this matchup, and that data is not adjusting fully for Gasquet’s current condition. Against Common Opponents, Hold / Break numbers are relatively even (-8.2% / +8.8%), but this data is actually skewed out towards Gasquet’s 2018 and 2017 statistics, and still shows a slight edge to Ymer.
Combined model forecasts a +3.3% serve delta to Ymer, without adjusting for Gasquet injury concerns. That would make Ymer a 70% win chance and a -240 ML favorite in a 3 set match. I am surprised to see him model out as such a strong favorite to begin with, but the bias would be to adjust that even further in Ymer’s direction.
Gasquet really can’t tolerate a physical match here. Obviously Gasquet could feel well off 7 days of rest and put forth a strong showing here, but that is a tail risk and we are essentially getting a free roll on his body wearing down through the match as I would make Ymer the favorite even absent those concerns. Obviously try to place this wager that pays out on retirements (most pay out after 1 set complete and some pay out as long as the match starts), but it may be worth staking a split between 1st Set and 2nd Set ML’s as part of the overall wager to ensure some cash flow if Gasquet retires after losing a set.
(11:30 AM) Vondrousova vs Sevastova (Vondrousova ML @ -215 in parlay)
Vondrousova has significantly better hard-court data over the past year and Sevastova comes in having lost 7 of her last 8 main draw matches. Vondrousova is 10-4 over the past 1Y on hard courts while Sevastova comes in 4-12.
The two profile more evenly against common opponents, but Vondrousova dominated their H2H on clay last year (63% serve points / 56% return points) and the translation from Clay to Hard is kinder to Vondrousova than Sevastova, despite Vondrousova being known as a clay court specialist. Sevastova has to be highly motivated here, but this is a terrible matchup for her, and I expect Vondrousova to progress with ease.
(2:30 PM) Christian Garin vs Andrej Martin (Garin ML @ -400 in parlay)
Garin is poised to break out and enter the top 20 during the 2020 clay swing and features substantially better trailing data than Martin (+9.3% Hold / +2.5% Break delta over 1Y, +5% Hold / +14% Break delta’s over L6 months). The two played a couple weeks ago, with Martin actually taking the first set before Garin won both subsequent sets by a 6-2 score line. Garin was clearly struggling with something physical early in that match, and I believe the final 2 sets of that match tell the true story of this matchup (they played rather close to my forecast for this match based off trailing data). The courts here favor more attacking tennis, and that will benefit Garin more than Martin relative to the conditions in their last matchup.
(1 PM) Benoit Paire vs Gregoire Barrere (Barrere ML +120)
Paire has been in awful form since his final’s appearance in Auckland, having won just a single match over 3 tournaments. Barrere comes in on a confidence boosting run, winning multiple main draw matches and notching the biggest win of his career vs. Dimitrov 2 weeks ago.
Trailing data favors Barrere. He sports +8% Hold / +2.5% Break deltas on Indoor hard over the past 1Y, and +3% Hold / +3.3% break against a sample of common opponents on Indoor AND Outdoor hard courts over the past 1Y (Indoor is clearly a superior surface for Barrere and an inferior surface for Paire, so this is surprising and indicative).
The two played a H2H on Indoor hard in 2019, with Paire winning in 2 tight sets. While Paire won +10% serve points in that match, that was relatively early in Barrere’s career arc w/ respect to main draw ATP events and the first set did go to a tiebreak. That match also took place during Paire’s best run of form in 2019 (mid-summer). Since then, trajectories are almost diametrically opposite, with Barrere now a more polished + confident player with weapons and an ability to dictate points in fast conditions. Paire’s forehand remains a real weakness and that weakness is particularly evident on faster courts, where he has less time to prepare + wind up - Barrere should be able attack that side on serve and control points and we should see a fair number of errors from Paire on that side
Paire also tends to freeze up in high pressure situations or in the face of high expectations. Barrere also struggles wit pressure but came through that situation vs. Dimitrov very well, and I suspect that Paire will actually be feeling some mental heat during this match. My Historical Stats model prices him at 70% / -250, my Common Opponent model prices him at 63% / -170, while my H2H model prices him at 32% / +215. Combined model gives Barrere a 54% chance of winning, pricing him at -120 on the ML and giving us some value on that side. Worth taking a stab at Barrere ML +130 or better – scary proposition given the 0-1 H2H and name brand disparity, but he is the better player indoors and carries both the confidence + toolbox necessary to put serious pressure on Paire here
Pablo Andujar vs Fernando Verdasco (Verdasco ML @ -160)
These two profile relatively evenly on Clay courts, with Verdasco holding a +4.3% Hold / -1.5% Break delta over the past 1Y. That’s where the similarities end as they relate to this matchup, however, as Verdasco crushed Andujar in Common Opponent performance (+16.5% Hold / +4.2% Break deltas) and has gotten the better of their H2H history. These two haven’t played on Clay in a while, but they Verdasco dismantled Andujar on Hard courts last summer, winning 75% of serve points and 40% of return points. Even adjusting for the translation from Hard to Clay (Verdasco is a better hard-court player, roughly equal on Clay), I still forecast a +11% serve point win rate delta on a Clay.
Important to note here are both the court conditions (fast / bouncy / favor attacking tennis) and the weather conditions (hot and humid). The court will likely play a little bit closer to a Hard court than a slower Clay court (like Buenos Aires) and that definitely favors Verdasco. He owned the H2H on Hard in 2019 and features +13% / +0.5% Serve / Hold deltas on that surface. He will be able to dictate points and play first strike tennis in these conditions, and that should carry him to victory.
(2:30 PM) Roberto Carballes Baena vs Federico Delbonis (Baena +2.5 @ -120 / Baena ML @ +130)
Both players are on rather indifferent form, with Baena running into the Ruud rocket ship in Buenos Aires and Delbonis looking devoid of rhythm in his first 3 Clay court matches of the year. Notably, Delbonis has looked less than fully fit, often struggling the deeper it goes into a set or match. That will not play well in Rio, where it will be near 90F and 30C with 75% humidity.
Trailing data favors Baena on Clay courts, showing a +2% Serve Hold / +2.5% Serve break delta in his favor over the past 1Y, while Common Opponents show roughly equal performance (+3% Serve Hold / -3% Break delta). The internals of the data favor Baena, as he consistently performs better on key points (Break point save rate +6-7% / conversion +5%) and he thus models out as a 60% favorite off that forecast.
H2H favors Delbonis 2-0, but the two each created 10 break point chances in their 2019 meeting with Delbonis winning it in 3 sets. That match was in Argentina, home to Delbonis and in much more temperate weather conditions. Baena is the fitter of the two, has the backhand to handle Delbonis’ cross court rally shots, with the movement and pace to counter a lot of what Delbonis’ tries to do from the baseline. Baena will extend rallies, which should draw errors from Delbonis with increasing frequency as he tires more rapidly through the match. Baena +2.5 games and Baena ML +130 are both value plays in my opinion
Mannarino vs Kwon (Mannarino ML @ Even)
Conditions will be hot + humid with wind building to a sustained 13-15 MPH by 3 PM (30 min after scheduled start). This immediately favors Mannarino, who has a 7-4 record at this venue and has shown his ability to hit consistently in adverse conditions throughout his career. He hits a very flat and low motion stroke, and this allows him to adjust well and maintain margin on his
groundstrokes. Mannarino is not in good form, but he has come to this event on losing streaks in the past and has used the favorability of the conditions to get on a winning streak and play his way into form (he did this during the grass swing in 2019 as well). Kwon has played well in recent weeks, but is truly a baseliner and I’m not sure of how well he will handle the funky nature of the courts and conditions in Del Rey.
Mannarino profiles as a winner in this match of Trailing 1Y / 6M data, with -2% Hold / +4% Break and -2% Hold / +3% Break delta’s across those 2 samples. He has also outperformed significantly against Common Opponents, nothing roughly equal serving rates but breaking serve over 20% more frequently.
Overall, my forecasts project Mannarino as a solid favorite here, and the additional edge via the conditions + familiarity with the venue warrants a play on his ML @ Even odds.
Futures for Mon 2/17 - Sun 2/23
Mannarino to win Del Rey Quarter (+500) $1.0 / $5.0
Fucsovics to win ATP Marseille (+2800) $0.5 / $14.0
Auger to win Quarter (+225) $1.0 / $2.25
Fucsovics to win Quarter (+500) $1.0 / $5.0
Futures Handicaps:
Auger Alliasime to win Q and ATP Marseille:
✅Gerasimov ML vs Ruus (+110) $1.0 / $1.1
✅Ymer ML vs Gasquet (-135) $2.0 / $1.5
Vondrousova ML x Garin ML (-120) $1.2 / $1.0
Barrere ML vs Paire (+120) $1.2 / $1.0
Verdasco ML vs Andujar (-160) $1.6 / $1.0
Baena +2.5 gm vs Delbonis (-120) $1.2 / $1.0
Baena ML (+130) $0.5 / $0.65
Mannarino ML vs Kwon (Pick) $1.0 / $1.0
Futures for Mon 2/17 - Sun 2/23
Mannarino to win Del Rey Quarter (+500) $1.0 / $5.0
Fucsovics to win ATP Marseille (+2800) $0.5 / $14.0
Auger to win Quarter (+225) $1.0 / $2.25
Fucsovics to win Quarter (+500) $1.0 / $5.0
Handicaps for Monday 2/17:
The quick courts will suit Gerasimov’s game-style here and he shows a substantial edge in Trailing Indoor Hard-Court Data and Common Opponent performance. Gerasimov has roughly equal serve performance over the past 1Y / 6M in ATP tour level matches on Indoor Hard court but has a +7.5% / +9% Serve Break delta across those two data horizons.
Against common opponents, Gerasimov has positive Serve Hold / Break deltas of +4.7% and +10.2%. Model prices him as a significant favorite, and while Ruusuvuori ultimately has the higher ceiling and is the better-known name at this point, I’ll take my chances with Gerasimov ML
(9 AM) Mikael Ymer vs Richard Gasquet (Ymer ML @ -135)
Ymer comes in on an upswing, having seemingly made the break from Challenger dominant to Tour level player. He’s won 7/11 matches in the last 3M and has shown a steady 6M uptrend not only in the level of his play, but his ability to rise to the level of strong quality opponents. Gasquet will always be talented and dangerous, but he comes off a year severely hampered by injuries and has only played 3 matches in the last 3M (2-1). Notably, Gasquet DID NOT look very healthy the last time out a week ago (retired down 6-1 / 1-0). The speed of these courts typically rewards attacking play, but Ymer can counterpunch well and loves an indoor court (16-6 last 1Y across all levels). His ability to draw Gasquet into longer rallies will put pressure on an ailing body and should give him an edge that escalates the longer the match wears on.
Looking at trailing data, Ymer is a deserved favorite. Hold / Break delta’s vs. Ymer over the past 1Y (-10% / +11%) and 6M (-4.5% / +14%) actually show him to be the better player in this matchup, and that data is not adjusting fully for Gasquet’s current condition. Against Common Opponents, Hold / Break numbers are relatively even (-8.2% / +8.8%), but this data is actually skewed out towards Gasquet’s 2018 and 2017 statistics, and still shows a slight edge to Ymer.
Combined model forecasts a +3.3% serve delta to Ymer, without adjusting for Gasquet injury concerns. That would make Ymer a 70% win chance and a -240 ML favorite in a 3 set match. I am surprised to see him model out as such a strong favorite to begin with, but the bias would be to adjust that even further in Ymer’s direction.
Gasquet really can’t tolerate a physical match here. Obviously Gasquet could feel well off 7 days of rest and put forth a strong showing here, but that is a tail risk and we are essentially getting a free roll on his body wearing down through the match as I would make Ymer the favorite even absent those concerns. Obviously try to place this wager that pays out on retirements (most pay out after 1 set complete and some pay out as long as the match starts), but it may be worth staking a split between 1st Set and 2nd Set ML’s as part of the overall wager to ensure some cash flow if Gasquet retires after losing a set.
(11:30 AM) Vondrousova vs Sevastova (Vondrousova ML @ -215 in parlay)
Vondrousova has significantly better hard-court data over the past year and Sevastova comes in having lost 7 of her last 8 main draw matches. Vondrousova is 10-4 over the past 1Y on hard courts while Sevastova comes in 4-12.
The two profile more evenly against common opponents, but Vondrousova dominated their H2H on clay last year (63% serve points / 56% return points) and the translation from Clay to Hard is kinder to Vondrousova than Sevastova, despite Vondrousova being known as a clay court specialist. Sevastova has to be highly motivated here, but this is a terrible matchup for her, and I expect Vondrousova to progress with ease.
(2:30 PM) Christian Garin vs Andrej Martin (Garin ML @ -400 in parlay)
Garin is poised to break out and enter the top 20 during the 2020 clay swing and features substantially better trailing data than Martin (+9.3% Hold / +2.5% Break delta over 1Y, +5% Hold / +14% Break delta’s over L6 months). The two played a couple weeks ago, with Martin actually taking the first set before Garin won both subsequent sets by a 6-2 score line. Garin was clearly struggling with something physical early in that match, and I believe the final 2 sets of that match tell the true story of this matchup (they played rather close to my forecast for this match based off trailing data). The courts here favor more attacking tennis, and that will benefit Garin more than Martin relative to the conditions in their last matchup.
(1 PM) Benoit Paire vs Gregoire Barrere (Barrere ML +120)
Paire has been in awful form since his final’s appearance in Auckland, having won just a single match over 3 tournaments. Barrere comes in on a confidence boosting run, winning multiple main draw matches and notching the biggest win of his career vs. Dimitrov 2 weeks ago.
Trailing data favors Barrere. He sports +8% Hold / +2.5% Break deltas on Indoor hard over the past 1Y, and +3% Hold / +3.3% break against a sample of common opponents on Indoor AND Outdoor hard courts over the past 1Y (Indoor is clearly a superior surface for Barrere and an inferior surface for Paire, so this is surprising and indicative).
The two played a H2H on Indoor hard in 2019, with Paire winning in 2 tight sets. While Paire won +10% serve points in that match, that was relatively early in Barrere’s career arc w/ respect to main draw ATP events and the first set did go to a tiebreak. That match also took place during Paire’s best run of form in 2019 (mid-summer). Since then, trajectories are almost diametrically opposite, with Barrere now a more polished + confident player with weapons and an ability to dictate points in fast conditions. Paire’s forehand remains a real weakness and that weakness is particularly evident on faster courts, where he has less time to prepare + wind up - Barrere should be able attack that side on serve and control points and we should see a fair number of errors from Paire on that side
Paire also tends to freeze up in high pressure situations or in the face of high expectations. Barrere also struggles wit pressure but came through that situation vs. Dimitrov very well, and I suspect that Paire will actually be feeling some mental heat during this match. My Historical Stats model prices him at 70% / -250, my Common Opponent model prices him at 63% / -170, while my H2H model prices him at 32% / +215. Combined model gives Barrere a 54% chance of winning, pricing him at -120 on the ML and giving us some value on that side. Worth taking a stab at Barrere ML +130 or better – scary proposition given the 0-1 H2H and name brand disparity, but he is the better player indoors and carries both the confidence + toolbox necessary to put serious pressure on Paire here
Pablo Andujar vs Fernando Verdasco (Verdasco ML @ -160)
These two profile relatively evenly on Clay courts, with Verdasco holding a +4.3% Hold / -1.5% Break delta over the past 1Y. That’s where the similarities end as they relate to this matchup, however, as Verdasco crushed Andujar in Common Opponent performance (+16.5% Hold / +4.2% Break deltas) and has gotten the better of their H2H history. These two haven’t played on Clay in a while, but they Verdasco dismantled Andujar on Hard courts last summer, winning 75% of serve points and 40% of return points. Even adjusting for the translation from Hard to Clay (Verdasco is a better hard-court player, roughly equal on Clay), I still forecast a +11% serve point win rate delta on a Clay.
Important to note here are both the court conditions (fast / bouncy / favor attacking tennis) and the weather conditions (hot and humid). The court will likely play a little bit closer to a Hard court than a slower Clay court (like Buenos Aires) and that definitely favors Verdasco. He owned the H2H on Hard in 2019 and features +13% / +0.5% Serve / Hold deltas on that surface. He will be able to dictate points and play first strike tennis in these conditions, and that should carry him to victory.
(2:30 PM) Roberto Carballes Baena vs Federico Delbonis (Baena +2.5 @ -120 / Baena ML @ +130)
Both players are on rather indifferent form, with Baena running into the Ruud rocket ship in Buenos Aires and Delbonis looking devoid of rhythm in his first 3 Clay court matches of the year. Notably, Delbonis has looked less than fully fit, often struggling the deeper it goes into a set or match. That will not play well in Rio, where it will be near 90F and 30C with 75% humidity.
Trailing data favors Baena on Clay courts, showing a +2% Serve Hold / +2.5% Serve break delta in his favor over the past 1Y, while Common Opponents show roughly equal performance (+3% Serve Hold / -3% Break delta). The internals of the data favor Baena, as he consistently performs better on key points (Break point save rate +6-7% / conversion +5%) and he thus models out as a 60% favorite off that forecast.
H2H favors Delbonis 2-0, but the two each created 10 break point chances in their 2019 meeting with Delbonis winning it in 3 sets. That match was in Argentina, home to Delbonis and in much more temperate weather conditions. Baena is the fitter of the two, has the backhand to handle Delbonis’ cross court rally shots, with the movement and pace to counter a lot of what Delbonis’ tries to do from the baseline. Baena will extend rallies, which should draw errors from Delbonis with increasing frequency as he tires more rapidly through the match. Baena +2.5 games and Baena ML +130 are both value plays in my opinion
Mannarino vs Kwon (Mannarino ML @ Even)
Conditions will be hot + humid with wind building to a sustained 13-15 MPH by 3 PM (30 min after scheduled start). This immediately favors Mannarino, who has a 7-4 record at this venue and has shown his ability to hit consistently in adverse conditions throughout his career. He hits a very flat and low motion stroke, and this allows him to adjust well and maintain margin on his
groundstrokes. Mannarino is not in good form, but he has come to this event on losing streaks in the past and has used the favorability of the conditions to get on a winning streak and play his way into form (he did this during the grass swing in 2019 as well). Kwon has played well in recent weeks, but is truly a baseliner and I’m not sure of how well he will handle the funky nature of the courts and conditions in Del Rey.
Mannarino profiles as a winner in this match of Trailing 1Y / 6M data, with -2% Hold / +4% Break and -2% Hold / +3% Break delta’s across those 2 samples. He has also outperformed significantly against Common Opponents, nothing roughly equal serving rates but breaking serve over 20% more frequently.
Overall, my forecasts project Mannarino as a solid favorite here, and the additional edge via the conditions + familiarity with the venue warrants a play on his ML @ Even odds.
Futures for Mon 2/17 - Sun 2/23
Mannarino to win Del Rey Quarter (+500) $1.0 / $5.0
Fucsovics to win ATP Marseille (+2800) $0.5 / $14.0
Auger to win Quarter (+225) $1.0 / $2.25
Fucsovics to win Quarter (+500) $1.0 / $5.0
Futures Handicaps:
Auger Alliasime to win Q and ATP Marseille:
- Auger-Aliassime may have been soundly beaten in the final this week, but he put forth another very impressive Indoor Hard display and his data is now very strong on this surface across a relatively larger sample. He will need to beat Travaglia, and then Herbert / Kukushkin to make the quarterfinal, and I expect relatively little resistance as he has major edges against all 3 on trailing data. He would then need to beat Goffin, who is one player with shockingly poor Indoor data given his ranking and general competency on Hard Courts. Auger wins a combined +5.4% Serve / Return points than the average tour player and Holds + Breaks at a +6.6% higher rate than the average tour player (vs. Goffin at +1.7% / +3%). That means the gap between Auger and the average player is 3x bigger that Goffin’s outperformance on Serve + Return Points won %, and 2x bigger on Serve + Return Games won %. He may be tired, but Auger is clearly the best player on this surface within this quadrant of the draw
Fucsovics to win Q and ATP Marseille
- Fucsovics will need to beat an unpredictable Bublik, then Paire / Barrere, and then either Shapovalov / Cilic. Bublik has terrible indoor hard-court data, and Fucsovics should handle him on current form. I expect Barrere to put up a good fight vs. Paire, and he has a very good chance to progress from that matchup, but neither of them stacks up to Fucs on Indoor data either. That leaves a likely ¼ matchup with Shapovalov to close the deal. Shap has been awful this year, showing serious weakness on return and the inability to maintain focus for full sets, much less full matches. Fucsovics screens slightly worse on Dominance Ratio for Games Won but is better on Dominance Ratio for Points Won and arguably comes in with more confidence / form – he appears to have turned a corner coming into this season. Shapovalov struggles on super-fast surfaces as his backhand requires a longer windup and that severely compromises his ability to get into points on return. Fucsovics should clear the first two rounds, and that will leave us with an EV+ ML bet vs. Shapovalov in the ¼ final.
- See below the draw split by quarter (indicated by shading in left most column) and then sub sorted to reflect best statistics within each quarter of the draw at the top
Mannarino to Win Quarter
- Mannarino presents an interesting option on a “To Win Quarter” prop, as his path is littered with matchup specific advantages and the conditions suit him well. He is historically a player who excels when conditions are downright terrible and is 7-4 at this venue.
- His stats profile surprisingly well (he has the highest Hold + Break ratio on outdoor hard in his bracket) and he looks to be the one player in that corner of the draw who has a proven track record of handling bad conditions / wind with success.
- Kwon looks to be the toughest matchup on paper, but he lacks the backhand to consistently cope with the angles Mannarino can create (especially in windier conditions), and Mannarino actually profiles very well in our model simulation of that match and we will likely be considering him on the ML. Behind that, he likely faces Dzumhur (3-0 in ATP H2H’s on Hard, +23% Serve Win delta) and then would finish with Opelka. Mannarino lost a tight H2H to Opelka early in 2019 on Indoor Hard, taking the first set but then losing the match 6-3 / 6-7 / 4-6.
- However, Mannarino won only -1% less serve points in that match despite serving at a substantially lower accuracy rate than his 1Y avg. Normalizing for typical accuracy and the deltas between Indoor and Outdoor performance, Mannarino actually comes out +3% in our forecast and we project him as a -200 favorite in the simulation.
- See below the draw split by quarter (indicated by shading in left most column) and then sub sorted to reflect best statistics within each quarter of the draw at the top
