Looking at the draws for this week, first thing we should do is assess the surface conditions at all 3 events and scan the draws for notable players we might want to back on a future / match to match basis:
- Pune plays at a higher altitude than most tournaments (500M / 1640 ft) and the courts / balls here have played fast in prior years. Sean Calvert points out that 56% of matches played at Pune over the last 2Y have featured a tiebreak, evidence of the serve friendly conditions. Further, Karlovic (very serve reliant) had great run here in 2019, making the final as a 50-1 shot - this drives home the importance of strong serving + attacking tennis at this event. Gerasimov + Stebe / Ivashka are names to watch on opposite sides of the draw
- Córdoba plays at an altitude of over 400M / 1300ft, so it should profile as a faster clay court. It will be slower than the typical hard court, however, and the intricacies of movement + the heightened impact of spin on the dirt surface will need to be considered when making plays here. Good opportunity to attack some clay oriented floaters (players whose ranking is lower than their performance on Clay due to poor results on other surfaces. Delbonis, Ramos, Londero, Moutet and Sonego / Garin are names to watch behind the favorites as these guys are generally considered clay court grinders who have impressed on a relative basis while playing on sub optimal surfaces in recent months. Londero specifically can raise his game to a high level in stretches, and won this event last year. He is well rested and has raised his game a lot over the past year, putting up respectable + improving numbers through the hard swing despite that being a less than suitable surface for him. He’s likely the best value on the board at +2000
- Montpellier is an extremely fast indoor surface, and that tournament tends to be won by the higher seeded players in the draw. Not much value in the futures pool as a result, but Shapovalov looks like a strong shot to win given his strength on indoor hard courts and the fact that he’s probably well rested after an early exit in Australia.
Montpellier is a crowded field and historically plays out according to seeding so there is limited value there in a vig heavy futures pool.
Pune, on the other hand, features a weak draw leaves Paire as the likely favorite to win the title. Given how volatile he is as a player, that could present an excellent opportunity to attack some value further down the board in that draw - Gerasimov sticks out like a sore thumb taking all that into account.
Gerasimov to Win ATP Pune (+1500) $0.5 / $7.5
Egor Gerasimov is a player to keep an eye on, particularly in 3 set formats on faster hard courts. He is generally weaker than most re: fitness (this showed after a few matches at AO), but this hasn’t impacted him in the 3 set format.
Gerasimov has a missile of a serve and features solid ground strokes and the ability to finish points at the net. He had a strong finish to 2019 on the latter portion of the hard court swing, and has the ability to get on the type of serve heater that could carry him deep into this tournament. At +1500, I'm willing to take a small shot at him to win this event.
Pune at a higher altitude than most tournaments (500M / 1640 ft) and the courts / balls here have played fast in prior years. Sean Calvert points out that 56% of matches played at Pune over the last 2Y have featured a tiebreak, evidence of the serve friendly conditions. Further, Karlovic (another serve oriented missile) had great run here in 2019, making the final as a 50-1 shot.
His draw is open through the Quarter Finals, with Kwoo being the first player who has the weapons to truly trouble him if he brings a decent level to Pune. From there, he would face Paire / Daniel, followed by Berankis / Sugita / Vesely in the final. Not exactly a murderer's row - there's a solid chance we find ourselves holding a +1500 ticket on a semi-final participant here.
Londero to win ATP Córdoba (+2000) $0.5 / $10.0
Londero won this event last year in the midst of his breakout onto the ATP tour during the 2019 clay swing. Londero hits big ground strokes and can finish points from the baseline with a combination of power and the angles he can generate by stepping in to take the ball early.
He’s won 65% of serve points on clay (vs Tour avg 62%) and won 38% of return points (avg 38.1%) in the past 1Y, holding serve 82.6% of the time (avg 76%) and broken serve in 22.2% of games (avg 24%), so this is clearly an above average clay court player with some serious weapons. Speed of the courts in Córdoba should suit his serve dominant profile, as the quicker conditions allow him to hit through the court and finish points with greater ease (it’s not surprising that he did well here in 2019 taking that into account).
Londero has stepped it up in big matches vs. higher ranked players in the past (Pella @ Córdoba, Gasquet @ Bastad, Basil x Gasquet x Moutet @ French Open) and will be playing in his home country this week. He’s shown the ability to make deep runs in the past on Clay: won Córdoba 2019, made R16 at French Open (lost to Nadal), made Final at Bastad (lost to Jarry), made R16 in Rio de Janeiro.
The draw looks gettable for him in the early going: R1 = Cecchinato, R2 = likely Dellien, R3 = either Djere / Baena, Semi Final = Schwartz, Final = likely Pella / Garin. He should have the upper hand up through the semi-finals, and where Schwartz and then either Pella / Garin would present his most difficult opponents. Looking at the data, Londero has the 2nd highest Points Dominance Ratio (Serve Delta vs Avg - Return Delta), ahead of both Garin and Schwartz but behind Pella. I think Londero goes deep here, and worst case we have a chance to place an EV+ hedge wager in the semi or final round pending the actual matchup he faces at that point.
Futures for Mon 2/3 - Sun 2/9
Gerasimov to Win ATP Pune (+1500) $0.5 / $7.5
Londero to win ATP Córdoba (+2000) $0.5 / $10.0
Tennis Picks for Sun 2/2 - Mon 2/3 (2-0, +$2.0)
✅ Bagnis ML vs Gaio (-125) $1.25 / $1.0
✅Ruusuvuori ML x Sugita ML (-130) $1.3 / $1.0
Sonego -1.5 gm vs Balazs (-125) $1.25 / $1.0
Delbonis ML vs Cuevas (-140) $1.4 / $1.0
Delbonis -1.5 gm vs Cuevas (-110) $1.1 / $1.0
(6 AM) Emil
Ruusuvuori vs Nicolas Mahut
Big
mismatch here. Ruus is an up and comer, and should make his mark on the tour
this year after smoking the Challenger circuit in 2019. He features a powerful
serve and heavy groundstrokes, which will play well vs. Mahut as he hasn’t
played a Hard Court singles match on the ATP Tour in over a year. Mahut plays a
lot of doubles – he is likely to play a ton of serve / volley to force Ruus to
make plays in order to beat him. Ruus has the passing shots to handle this
easily, and I expect a routine victory for him.
(6:30 AM) Yuichi
Sugita vs Thomas Fabbiano
Fabbiano
comes in on a terrible run of form, winning 2 of his last 12 matches. He is not
a particularly strong hard court player, and will struggle to handle the level
of play Sugita brings into the contest. Sugita won a match in Australia and
progressed to the final of the 2 other tournaments he entered in 2020
(Challenger, but he’s still in a good rhythm. These 2 met in 2017 on a Hard
Court, with Sugita winning 57% of serve points vs only 44% for Fabbiano. Since
then, Sugita has improved his level substantially while Fabianno is starting to
look like he might retire sooner rather than later. Important to note that
their Hard Court stats going into the previous meeting actually favored Fabbiano,
making the dominant result in favor of Sugita all the more impressive (it
indicates that even without the form disparity we see here, Sugita’s game has
the ability to cause Fabianno serious problems within that specific matchup
(1:30 PM) Lorenzo Sonego vs Attila Balazs
Sonego has big edges in the data, holding serve +8% more often on 1Y stats normalized for opposition difficulty and +15% on the common opponent sub-sample. He has a slight edge on return point win % in both data samples, but this is more concentrated in the 6M data and that is a rather small sample size (i.e. I would assume they are about equal on return). These 2 also played a H2H in 2017, with Sonego winning 66% of serve points vs. 63% for Balazs. Sonego has improved his game a lot since that matchup and I get a forecast of about a +6% serve delta for Sonego accounting for the stat deltas from 2017 to 2019.
Combining all 3 models, I get a blended forecast of a +5.5% delta to Sonego, implying a 78% chance of winning a 3 set match (ML -360) and a 51% chance of winning in straight sets.
Sonego has a huge serve and his favorite surface is clay. Balasz tends to have strong rally tolerance, but lacks weapons and had already retired from the game a few years ago before now making a comeback. Sonego’s serve and ability to finish points from the baseline will allow him to win cheap points on serve and devote more energy to his return games. Balazs will be under pressure all day – Sonego moves on.
(5 PM) Federico Delbonis vs Pablo Cuevas
2 Clay court specialists going head to head here – this should be a hotly contested match as both players have semi-final ranking points to defend here (those points roll off 1Y after earning them, so whichever of these players fails to make it out of rd 1 will see their ranking take a hit).
Cuevas has an edge on 1Y Clay Court stats (+3.8% serve hold / -2.3% serve break) but that entire data sample occurred before July of 2019 as there have been mostly Hard Court and Grass court tournaments since then. In the interim, Cuevas’ level has fallen off a cliff (5-11 since US Open) and he looks to be persistently struggling with injuries.
I put more weight in the Common Opponent and recent H2H data, and that is where we see Delbonis with a massive edge. Against Common Opponents over the last 1Y, Delbonis wins +5% / +3.7% more 1st / 2nd serve points, and wins +9% / -3% more 1st / 2nd return points than Cuevas. These edges carried over into their most recent H2H at Bastad in July, with Delbonis taking a 6-4 / 6-4 straight set victory and winning 62% of serve points vs. just 53% for Cuevas. Cuevas only put 50% of his 1st serves in play during that match, roughly 10% below his tour average, and even accounting for that delta (re-simulating the match with the same serve win %’s for Cuevas but a higher 1st Serve in rate) yields a +5% serve delta for Delbonis (79% to win / ML = -370)
Within this matchup, Delbonis can leverage his heavy / high spin left handed forehand to bounce the ball up and away from Cuevas’ 1-handed backhand, putting pressure on that stroke throughout the match. We can see this dynamic has been a persistent issue for Cuevas as he has gone 3-5 vs. Left-Handers over the past year. Further, Delbonis has spectacular rally tolerance (he can play extremely long points with a high level on consistency), and this should serve him well on a slow surface against an opponent with questionable health / fitness.
My 3 models combined give Delbonis a 72% chance of winning (ML = -255) and a 42% chance of winning in 2 sets (-1.5 set = +135). I will attack the value on Delbonis by splitting my bet between ML and -1.5 game spread at 1 unit each
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