Recap 2/3 - 2/9: ATP Pune, Montpellier, Cordoba

Picks and commentary on the blog dropped off slightly this week - I was travelling most of the week on business and had a trip planned for the weekend so I decided to keep it on twitter and update here on Sunday to save some time (traffic flow is way heavier to that side anyways)

The week was rather lukewarm for the majority of the early rounds, but we did identity two value outright / future plays that outperformed their market pricing. Londero (+2000) made it to a QF and lost a tight match in a 3rd set breaker. Gerasimov (+1500) progressed all the way to the final and was a substantial favorite to win the match. Hopefully you all got some hedges down - my apologies for not posting any hedging guidelines - the match went off at 4:30 AM my local time. 

The draw played out exactly as we had hoped - Paire decides to throw a clunker as the 1st seed (classic) completely opening the draw. Gerasimov worked through some slow starts but his serve / attack skills played really well on this surface and he looked rather dominant in most of his victories. We yet again had a nice little run to close the week, and are feeling confident that we should be able to continue driving some positive returns here as we begin to accumulate some actually relevant form data for the clay court players and get a sense for how the trends we noticed during the hard court swings of late 2019 / early 2020 manifest themselves on a new surface. On to the next week, see the entire rolodex of our picks for this week below: 

Season Review

• YTD (thru 2/9) = 100-75, +$20.45 Units
• Aussie Open = 69 - 49, +$19.05
• Week Total (2/3 - 2/9) = 22-16, +$4.85
• Futures Record (0-2, -$1.5 units)

ATP Pune, Montpellier, Cordoba Results (2/3 - 2/9) = 22-16, +$4.85

• Week Total (2/3 - 2/9) = 22-16, +$4.85
• Futures Record (0-2, -$1.5 units)

Tennis Bet Card for Sun 2/9 (4-0, +$6.25 units)

✅Bagnis ML x Schwartz / Garin O2.5 sets (+280) $0.5 / $1.4

✅Garin / Schwartz O2.5 sets (+160) $1.0 / $1.6

✅Garin +3.5 gm (-105) $1.05 / $1.0

✅Garin ML (+225) $1.0 / $2.25

Futures for Mon 2/3 - Sun 2/9  (0-2, -$1.5 units)

✖️Gerasimov to Win ATP Pune (+1500) $0.5 / $7.5
--->✖️Hedge Duckworth Live ML (+450) $0.5 / $2.25

✖️Londero to win ATP Córdoba (+2000) $0.5 / $10.0

Week to date (2/3 - 2/9) = 22-16, +$4.85

Year to Date (thru 2/9) = 100-75, +$20.45 Units 

Futures Record (0-2, -$1.5 units)

Tennis Bet Card for Saturday 2/8 (3-2, +$1.4)

✅Barrere ML vs Zandschlup (-155) $1.55 / $1.0

✅Barrere -1.5 gm $0.55 / $0.5

✖️Krajinovic +1.5 gm vs Monfils (-110) $1.1 / $1.0

✅Garin ML x Schwartz ML (-135) $1.35 / $1.0

Futures for Mon 2/3 - Sun 2/9  (0-1, -$1 units)

⚡️ Gerasimov to Win ATP Pune (+1500) $0.5 / $7.5
--->✖️Hedge Duckworth Live ML (+450) $0.5 / $2.25

✖️Londero to win ATP Córdoba (+2000) $0.5 / $10.0

Week to date = 18-16, -$1.4

Year to Date (prior to this week) = 78-59, +$15.6 Units 

Futures Record (0-1, -$1.0)

Tennis Bet Card for Thursday 2/6 (5-6, -$1.05)

✖️Ymer ML vs Kraj (+120) $1.5 / $1.8

✖️Ymer / Kraj O22.5 (-130) $1.3 / $1.0

✖️Ruusuvuori -2.5 vs Gombos (-120) $1.2 / $1.0

✅Kwon ML vs Gunneswaran (-140) $1.4 / $1.0

✅Gerasimov ML (-190) $1.9 / $1.0

✖️Gerasimov -1.5 set (+140) $0.5 / $0.7

✅Auger / Herbert O23 (-130) $1.3 / $1.0

✅Ramos ML vs Andujar (-140) $1.4 / $1.0

✅Londero -1.5 sets (-130) $1.3 / $1.0

✖️Munar +1.5 set vs Schwartz (-105) $1.05 / $1.0

✖️Munar ML vs Schwartz (+260) $0.5 / $1.3

Futures for Mon 2/3 - Sun 2/9 

⚡️ Gerasimov to Win ATP Pune (+1500) $0.5 / $7.5

⚡️ Londero to win ATP Córdoba (+2000) $0.5 / $10.0

Week to date = 15-16, -$2.8

Year to Date (prior to this week) = 78-59, +$15.6 Units 

Tennis Results for Wednesday 2/5 (3-3, -$0.55)

✖️Stebe / Berankis O22.5 (-125) $1.25 / $1.0

(P) Sugita ML vs Troicki (-180) $1.8 / $2.0

(P) Sugita -2 gm (-135) $1.35 / $1.0

✖️Shapovalov -2.5 (-115) $1.15 / $1.0

✖️Shap / Pospisil O22.5 (-135) $1.35 / $100

✅Moutet ML vs Pella (+115) $1.5 / $1.7

✅Garin ML vs Balasz (-185) $0.92 /$0.5

✅Garin -2.5 vs Balasz (-125) $1.25 / $1.0

Futures for Mon 2/3 - Sun 2/9 

⚡️ Gerasimov to Win ATP Pune (+1500) $0.5 / $7.5

⚡️ Londero to win ATP Córdoba (+2000) $0.5 / $10.0

Week to date = 10-10, -$1.75

Year to Date (prior to this week) = 78-59, +$15.6 Units 

Tennis Results for Tuesday 2/4 (4-3, +$0.05)

✅Gerasimov ML x Ivashka ML (+110) $1.1 / $1.0

✅Ruus ML vs Novak (-160) $1.6 / $1.0

✖️Sinner ML vs Ymer (-155) $1.55 / $1.0

✖️Sinner -2 vs Ymer (-120) $0.6 / $0.5

✖️Stakhovsky / Herbert O22 (-120) $1.8 / $1.5

✅Ramos ML vs Bagnis (-200) $1.0 / $0.5

(P) Ramos -3 gm (120) $0.6 / 0.5

✅Londero -1.5 gm vs Cecchinato (-115) 1.75 / $1.5

Tennis Results for Sun 2/2 - Mon 2/3 (3-4, -1.25)

✅Bagnis ML vs Martinez (-150) $1.5 / $1.0

✖️ Bagnis ML x Mena +3.5 x Johnson ML $0.5 / $1.8

✅ Bagnis ML vs Gaio (-125) $1.25 / $1.0

✅Ruusuvuori ML x Sugita ML (-130) $1.3 / $1.0

✖️Sonego -1.5 gm vs Balazs (-125) $1.25 / $1.0

✖️Delbonis ML vs Cuevas (-140) $1.4 / $1.0

✖️Delbonis -1.5 gm vs Cuevas (-110) $1.1 / $1.0

Week to date = 3-4, -$1.25

Year to Date (prior to this week) = 78-59, +$15.6 Units