Week in review and up to date season statistics for our Tennis bets in the attached doc below. Previews + Futures recommendations for upcoming tournaments (Montpellier + Del Rey + Rio) will follow below that insert.
Previews + Futures Picks: Montpellier + Del Rey + Rio
Surface speed and ace rate statistics are inserted below here. Tournament specific players stats, draw commentary, and futures picks will follow behind that.
Futures for Mon 2/17 - Sun 2/23
Mannarino to win Del Rey Quarter (+500) $1.0 / $5.0
Fucsovics to win ATP Marseille (+2800) $0.5 / $14.0
Auger to win Quarter (+225) $1.0 / $2.25
Fucsovics to win Quarter (+500) $1.0 / $5.0
ATP Marseille Surface Notes + Preview (Fucsovics and Auger to Win Quarter)
Marseille is played indoors on a faster hard-court surface – 13.4% Ace rate in 2019 ranked 10th out of 38 HC venues while the average court speed over the past 3Y ranks 12th out of 38. Service hold rates have generally been high at this tournament and we’ve seen serve / attack-oriented players do well here. That typically yields little chance for a long-shot surprise winner, as this tournament requires a player to simply outplay and outhit an opponent for 4-5 matches in a row and that is really tough if you aren’t one of the more talented players in the field
Looking at the draw, several players stand out on Indoor specific trailing data relative to their seeding for this tournament. Pospisil, Fucsovics, Auger, Bedene and Sinner have generally performed above their seeding level on Indoor Hard. Paire, Hurkacz, Cilic, Goffin, Shapovalov and Khachanov (on more recent 1Y data that is more reflective of form) are surprisingly poor with respect to how they are positioned in the draw. Notably, Hurkacz is way worse on Indoor vs. Outdoor hard courts and that will be something to watch over the next year. These are the players we will look to fade on our futures plays and selectively during the week.
Medvedev is clearly the cream of the crop, but it doesn’t appear he is carrying the form of Summer 2019 when he accumulated most of his spectacular data. Pospisil profiles as the 2nd most dangerous player but picked up an injury in his last match and its unclear how that will affect him. Tsitsi has been struggling with a shoulder injury as well. With that said, this smells like a pretty open draw, and we have two solid “to win Quarter” props to attack here that we will also back to win the title.
Fucsovics and Auger to Win Quarter and ATP Montpellier Outright
- When we look at the data split out by ¼ of the draw, there are two clear winners in their respective quarters that are not being priced appropriately by oddsmakers.
- Auger-Aliassime may have been soundly beaten in the final this week, but he put forth another very impressive Indoor Hard display and his data is now very strong on this surface across a relatively larger sample. He will need to beat Travaglia, and then Herbert / Kukushkin to make the quarterfinal, and I expect relatively little resistance as he has major edges against all 3 on trailing data. He would then need to beat Goffin, who is one player with shockingly poor Indoor data given his ranking and general competency on Hard Courts. Auger wins a combined +5.4% Serve / Return points than the average tour player and Holds + Breaks at a +6.6% higher rate than the average tour player (vs. Goffin at +1.7% / +3%). That means the gap between Auger and the average player is 3x bigger that Goffin’s outperformance on Serve + Return Points won %, and 2x bigger on Serve + Return Games won %. He may be tired, but Auger is clearly the best player on this surface within this quadrant of the draw
- Fucsovics will need to beat an unpredictable Bublik, then Paire / Barrere, and then either Shapovalov / Cilic. Bublik has terrible indoor hard-court data, and Fucsovics should handle him on current form. I expect Barrere to put up a good fight vs. Paire, and he has a very good chance to progress from that matchup, but neither of them stacks up to Fucs on Indoor data either. That leaves a likely ¼ matchup with Shapovalov to close the deal. Shap has been awful this year, showing serious weakness on return and the inability to maintain focus for full sets, much less full matches. Fucsovics screens slightly worse on Dominance Ratio for Games Won but is better on Dominance Ratio for Points Won and arguably comes in with more confidence / form – he appears to have turned a corner coming into this season. Shapovalov struggles on super-fast surfaces as his backhand requires a longer windup and that severely compromises his ability to get into points on return. Fucsovics should clear the first two rounds, and that will leave us with an EV+ ML bet vs. Shapovalov in the ¼ final.
- See below the draw split by quarter (indicated by shading in left most column) and then sub sorted to reflect best statistics within each quarter of the draw at the top
ATP Del Ray Surface Notes + Preview
Del Ray is a slow, higher bouncing surface (28th rank avg speed out of 38 over last 3Y) that does yield a fairly high % of aces, although this is down more to the field composition than anything else.
Tournament is held in Miami, which means wind is usually a factor in afternoon and early evening matches – we will need to be on top of the forecasts this week. Those surface dynamics make it profitable to back strong movers / defenders, while the courts here also reward some of the same characteristics as clay courts do (similar to Indian Wells, which Thiem won last year). At the same time, these conditions are likely more favorable for the Opelka / Isner / Raonic types than NYC, as the higher bounce / slower courts will help them in rallies while their ace rates will likely remain high (taking some wind pressure off their ground strokes).
Mannarino to Win Quarter
- Mannarino presents an interesting option on a “To Win Quarter” prop, as his path is littered with matchup specific advantages and the conditions suit him well. He is historically a player who excels when conditions are downright terrible and is 7-4 at this venue.
- His stats profile surprisingly well (he has the highest Hold + Break ratio on outdoor hard in his bracket) and he looks to be the one player in that corner of the draw who has a proven track record of handling bad conditions / wind with success.
- Kwon looks to be the toughest matchup on paper, but he lacks the backhand to consistently cope with the angles Mannarino can create (especially in windier conditions), and Mannarino actually profiles very well in our model simulation of that match and we will likely be considering him on the ML. Behind that, he likely faces Dzumhur (3-0 in ATP H2H’s on Hard, +23% Serve Win delta) and then would finish with Opelka. Mannarino lost a tight H2H to Opelka early in 2019 on Indoor Hard, taking the first set but then losing the match 6-3 / 6-7 / 4-6.
- However, Mannarino won only -1% less serve points in that match despite serving at a substantially lower accuracy rate than his 1Y avg. Normalizing for typical accuracy and the deltas between Indoor and Outdoor performance, Mannarino actually comes out +3% in our forecast and we project him as a -200 favorite in the simulation.
- See below the draw split by quarter (indicated by shading in left most column) and then sub sorted to reflect best statistics within each quarter of the draw at the top
ATP Rio De Janeiro Surface Notes + Preview
Rio profiles as a slower Clay court surface (speed rank 17th of 21, ace rank 15th of 21), generally favors more attacking tennis than Buenos Aires the week before (similar speed rating, much higher ace rate). Matches are usually very physical given the heat and humidity, so fitness will need to be considered in every match. We will look to back players who benefit from a relatively springy court that rewards big hitting and serving. Thiem seems a lock to win this week, provided he is fit after a deep and taxing run at AO.
No comments:
Post a Comment