Still have two active futures plays and it looks like the market is moving Gerasimov's line in a favorable direction (now 2nd favorite at 8-1, before even playing a match). The write ups for the futures can be found at the bottom of this post, and in the Monday 2/3 post alongside the Tournament Specific Surface preview.
Futures for Mon 2/3 - Sun 2/9
Gerasimov to Win ATP Pune (+1500) $0.5 / $7.5
Londero to win ATP Córdoba (+2000) $0.5 / $10.0
Tennis Results for Sun 2/2 - Mon 2/3 (3-4, -1.25)
✅Bagnis ML vs Martinez (-150) $1.5 / $1.0
✖️ Bagnis ML x Mena +3.5 x Johnson ML $0.5 / $1.8
✅Ruusuvuori ML x Sugita ML (-130) $1.3 / $1.0
✖️Sonego -1.5 gm vs Balazs (-125) $1.25 / $1.0
✖️Delbonis ML vs Cuevas (-140) $1.4 / $1.0
✖️Delbonis -1.5 gm vs Cuevas (-110) $1.1 / $1.0
Week to date = 3-4, -$1.25
Year to Date (prior to this week) = 78-59, +$15.6 Units
Tennis Bets for Tue 2/4
Gerasmimov ML x Ivashka ML (+110) $1.0 / $1.1
Ruusuvuori ML vs Novak (-160) $1.6 / $1.0
Sinner ML vs Ymer (-155) $1.55 / $1.0
Sinner -2 gm (-120) $0.6 / $0.5
Herbert / Stakhovsky O22 (-120) $1.8 / $1.5
Ramos ML vs Bagnis (-200) $1.0 / $0.5
Ramos -3 gm (-120) $0.6 / $0.5
Londero -1.5 gm vs Cecchinato $1.15 / $1.0
Handicaps for Tuesday's Bets:
Paolo Lorenzi vs Egor Gerasimov (Gerasimov ML x Ivashka ML)
Gerasimov with a big edge vs. Common Opponents on Hard Courts, holding serve at a +6% higher rate and breaking serve at a +11% higher rate. Lorenzi is more of a clay courter, and will not be suited by the speed of the courts in Pune (altitude and a generally fast surface). He is also 38 years old and has hit a very poor run of form. Gerasimov, on the other hand, has put forth his best ATP level performances on the Asian / Indoor Hard swing in late 2019 - those courts are generally considered the fastest on tour, and I expect Gerasimov's game to be very difficult to handle this week given the conditions.
Ilya Ivashka vs Evgeny Donskoy (Gerasimov ML x Ivashka ML)
Ivashka is clearly the better player on return of serve (+7% / +5% Serve Break rate on 1Y Stats / Common Opponent) and his more recent data shows him performing better on serve as well (+2% Serve Hold on 6M stats, +4% on Common Opponents). Ivashka should bring some confidence in this match off a successful AO qualifying campaign and a strong performance vs. Anderson in the first round (took him 5 sets).
The 2 have met H2H 3 time, with Donskoy leading the series 2-1 after their last meeting in 2017. In those 3 matches, the two were roughly equal on serve with all 3 matches playing very tight. Since their last meeting, however, Ivashka’s data has consistently improved YoY while Donskoy has seemingly regressed somewhat. Accounting for their stat deltas between 2017 and 2019, I forecast a 67% Serve win rate for Ivashka vs. 59% for Donskoy (84% chance of winning implied).
Combination of all 3 models makes Ivashka a roughly -300 / 1.33 favorite, so there is some value taking him on the ML.
Emil Ruusuvuori vs Dennis Novak (Ruus ML @-160)
Ruusuvuori is an up and comer who will break into the top 100 this year. He destroyed the challenger tour in 2019, winning 34 of 38 matches on hard courts over the past year. He is familiar with the courts here, having played multiple tournaments here in the past 18 months, while Novak tends to struggle on indoor hard courts. Ruusuvuori is more of an attacking / offensive player, while Novak has a tendency to defend and counterpunch – on an extremely fast surface like Montpellier, this puts Novak at a distinct disadvantage
Further, Ruus has big edges in trailing hard-court data against Challenger Opponents (took out Novak’s ATP stats to account for difficulty level), Holding Serve at a +1.5% higher rate and breaking serve at a +16% higher rate. The two profile similarly on serve against Common Opponents as well, but Ruus again has a substantial edge on Serve Break rate at +6%.
Combination of my 2 models gives Ruus a 73% chance of taking this match (ML = -300). I will happily take a stab at Ruus -2 game spread @-115
Jannik Sinner vs Mikael Ymer
Sinner has a +6-8% edge on Serve Holds depending upon the sample you look at, and only a 1-2% deficit on Serve Breaks. Ymer has come on strong recently and is generally a player I want to back this year, but this is a bad matchup for him. He too features a very defensive game style, preferring to use his athleticism to defend and counter punch when openings present themselves (we can see how well he fared on a super slow surface in Australia). Sinner is a big name to watch this year. He has all the weapons necessary to eventually develop into a top 10 player and has shown the ability to consistently overpower defensively oriented opponents thus far in his career. These two played a match in similarly quick Indoor conditions at the Next Gen Finals, and Ymer simply got blown off the court in that match. In match camera feeds to the conversations between the coaches and players suggested that Ymer was at something of a loss for how to combat Sinner’s game by the 3rd set. My models make Sinner a favorite with a 65% chance of winning (-190 ML), so there isn’t HUGE value on him by the numbers alone, but given the matchup dynamics and surface conditions I think this warrants a play on Sinner ML or game spread
Sergey Stakhovsky vs Pierre Herbert
My models actually make Stakhovsky a slight favorite here on 2019 data, but it is a small sample size for Stakhovsky on Indoor Hard Courts and the 2Y data look better for Herbert. It’s unrealistic to expect Stakhovsky to win here – Herbert is the better player overall and should come out on top in the end. Regardless, I think the odds should be pricing in a much closer match than it currently would appear. Both players are strongest on Serve and can win cheap points with Serve + volley tactic. Given each players weakness on return and the speed of the courts, both should cruise through their serve games, keeping this match tight and likely forcing a breaker or 2 before its settled. Herbert hasn’t played in nearly 2 weeks and isn’t used to the speed of indoor conditions. He has a tendency to get rattled when serving out sets / matches, and its very possible he comes out slow or chokes a bit here while adjusting to the surface.
Over 22 is a solid play – we should see breakers and this smells like a match going 3 sets.
Albert Ramos Vinolas vs Facundo Bagnis
Both players are clay court specialists, but Ramos is a clear level above Bagnis in terms of ability. Looking at trailing Clay court data, Ramos has a substantial edge on both serve and return across all 3 samples.
Bagnis has struggled in the past vs left handers, as his backhand and size cause him problems against players who can hit topspin up and away from him on that side. We saw this come through in their H2H in Brazil last year, where Ramos won 76% of serve points vs. 52% for Bagnis en route to a 6-1 / 6-3 victory
This will be Ramos’ first match on clay, and that is somewhat concerning given that Bagnis will be surface warm coming through qualifying. Nevertheless, I believe Ramos has enough to overcome a potential slow start and to bring home the win here.
Juan Ignacio Londero vs Marco Cecchinato
Londero comes in as a hometown favorite – he made his break through onto the tour at Cordoba last year and actually won the tournament out of nowhere. The court conditions clearly favor his more attacking gamestyle, even though it may take him a few games to get fully used to clay again (first match on surface this year). Cecchinato has lost 9 of his last 10 tour level matches vs. top 50 ranked players and must now face a dangerous player on his home turf.
Looking at the data, Londero serves better (+9% serve hold) over the past year and the two are roughly equal on return. When filtering down to common opponents to standardize the opposition difficulty level, Londero holds serve +5% more and actually breaks serve +7% more. The H2H history gives me some pause (3-0 Cecchinato), but is frankly not as relevant as one would think (Londero was not the player he is today in 2017 and Cecchinato has regressed since that time). Totally different matchup in these conditions and at these player’s current ability levels.
Albert Ramos Vinolas vs Facundo Bagnis
Both players are clay court specialists, but Ramos is a clear level above Bagnis in terms of ability. Looking at trailing Clay court data, Ramos has a substantial edge on both serve and return across all 3 samples.
Bagnis has struggled in the past vs left handers, as his backhand and size cause him problems against players who can hit topspin up and away from him on that side. We saw this come through in their H2H in Brazil last year, where Ramos won 76% of serve points vs. 52% for Bagnis en route to a 6-1 / 6-3 victory
This will be Ramos’ first match on clay, and that is somewhat concerning given that Bagnis will be surface warm coming through qualifying. Nevertheless, I believe Ramos has enough to overcome a potential slow start and to bring home the win here.
Juan Ignacio Londero vs Marco Cecchinato
Londero comes in as a hometown favorite – he made his break through onto the tour at Cordoba last year and actually won the tournament out of nowhere. The court conditions clearly favor his more attacking gamestyle, even though it may take him a few games to get fully used to clay again (first match on surface this year). Cecchinato has lost 9 of his last 10 tour level matches vs. top 50 ranked players and must now face a dangerous player on his home turf.
Looking at the data, Londero serves better (+9% serve hold) over the past year and the two are roughly equal on return. When filtering down to common opponents to standardize the opposition difficulty level, Londero holds serve +5% more and actually breaks serve +7% more. The H2H history gives me some pause (3-0 Cecchinato), but is frankly not as relevant as one would think (Londero was not the player he is today in 2017 and Cecchinato has regressed since that time). Totally different matchup in these conditions and at these player’s current ability levels.
Futures Bet Rationale
Gerasimov to Win ATP Pune (+1500) $0.5 / $7.5
Egor Gerasimov is a player to keep an eye on, particularly in 3 set formats on faster hard courts. He is generally weaker than most re: fitness (this showed after a few matches at AO), but this hasn’t impacted him in the 3 set format.
Gerasimov has a missile of a serve and features solid ground strokes and the ability to finish points at the net. He had a strong finish to 2019 on the latter portion of the hard court swing, and has the ability to get on the type of serve heater that could carry him deep into this tournament. At +1500, I'm willing to take a small shot at him to win this event.
Pune at a higher altitude than most tournaments (500M / 1640 ft) and the courts / balls here have played fast in prior years. Sean Calvert points out that 56% of matches played at Pune over the last 2Y have featured a tiebreak, evidence of the serve friendly conditions. Further, Karlovic (another serve oriented missile) had great run here in 2019, making the final as a 50-1 shot.
His draw is open through the Quarter Finals, with Kwoo being the first player who has the weapons to truly trouble him if he brings a decent level to Pune. From there, he would face Paire / Daniel, followed by Berankis / Sugita / Vesely in the final. Not exactly a murderer's row - there's a solid chance we find ourselves holding a +1500 ticket on a semi-final participant here.
Londero to win ATP Córdoba (+2000) $0.5 / $10.0
Londero won this event last year in the midst of his breakout onto the ATP tour during the 2019 clay swing. Londero hits big ground strokes and can finish points from the baseline with a combination of power and the angles he can generate by stepping in to take the ball early.
He’s won 65% of serve points on clay (vs Tour avg 62%) and won 38% of return points (avg 38.1%) in the past 1Y, holding serve 82.6% of the time (avg 76%) and broken serve in 22.2% of games (avg 24%), so this is clearly an above average clay court player with some serious weapons. Speed of the courts in Córdoba should suit his serve dominant profile, as the quicker conditions allow him to hit through the court and finish points with greater ease (it’s not surprising that he did well here in 2019 taking that into account).
Londero has stepped it up in big matches vs. higher ranked players in the past (Pella @ Córdoba, Gasquet @ Bastad, Basil x Gasquet x Moutet @ French Open) and will be playing in his home country this week. He’s shown the ability to make deep runs in the past on Clay: won Córdoba 2019, made R16 at French Open (lost to Nadal), made Final at Bastad (lost to Jarry), made R16 in Rio de Janeiro.
The draw looks gettable for him in the early going: R1 = Cecchinato, R2 = likely Dellien, R3 = either Djere / Baena, Semi Final = Schwartz, Final = likely Pella / Garin. He should have the upper hand up through the semi-finals, and where Schwartz and then either Pella / Garin would present his most difficult opponents. Looking at the data, Londero has the 2nd highest Points Dominance Ratio (Serve Delta vs Avg - Return Delta), ahead of both Garin and Schwartz but behind Pella. I think Londero goes deep here, and worst case we have a chance to place an EV+ hedge wager in the semi or final round pending the actual matchup he faces at that point.
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