NBA Picks for 1/31/20

Took a bit of a hiatus on the NBA picks as we were deep diving into the tennis and that schedule was rather heavy earlier on in the tournament. We’re going to get back at it now with the load lightening up on tennis.

A word of caution - NBA tends to be very funky leading into and out of the all-star break. Motivation is way less consistent and a lot of players are checked out mentally and ready to go on vacation. We think our strategy and discipline on reading the market and fading the public tends to perform even better in those scenarios (we are aligning ourselves with sharp bettors and casinos who know more about those dynamics than your typical Joe), but a disclaimer is warranted nonetheless. 

Record thus far YTD for 2020 below (this is just since we started posting publicly - I could TELL you how we are running back through late 2018, but unlike many other cappers I’m actually just gonna SHOW you instead). 

YTD = 14-10 ATS, +$0.45 units 

NBA Picks for Friday 1/31:

CHI +5.5 @ BKN $1.1 / $1.0

CHI / BKN U220.5 $1.1 / $1.0

DAL ML @ HOU (+290) $0.35 / $1.0

PHX -1 vs OKC $1.1 / $1.0

PHX / OKC U222.5 $1.1 / $1.0

DAL ML x CHI +5.5 x CHI / BKN U220.5 x PHX -1 $0.5 / $5.70

—-> Round Robin 4 x 3 ($0.125 units per parlay) 

Handicaps + Rationale for NBA plays:

CHI +5.5 @ BKN

Lavine will play for CHI tonight and he has really been the key to everything they want to do over the past month and change. Reading the market, we see ~85% of bets and money on BKN here but the line has not budged off +5.5 at the sharpest book in Vegas (Pinnacle). BKN seems like the sexy side to take here, but if you dig a little deeper you’ll see the only team they’ve beaten since 1/12/20 is DET, and I’m starting to get the sense that Kyrie doesn’t really mesh with the rest of this roster.

CHI pops in my Public Fade x Complacent Opponent System for this matchup – teams getting less than 30% of bets / play against teams that won their previous game as a Favorite have gone 123-74 (62%, 22% ROI) since 2016

CHI / BKN U220.5

Simple play here – this already smells like a flat spot for BKN (see above) and CHI has surprisingly been a strong under team this year as they play hard on D and tend to run a slower pace. Market sees Kyrie playing and wants to bet over – 65% of bets are on the over but the total has dropped to 220 from 223 and there is definitely sharp money playing our side here.

DAL ML @ HOU

Bit of a dart throw here at extremely favorable odds with Doncic out. Market dynamics are good for DAL ML in this spot, and the public is forcing odds makers to overreact somewhat to the injury absence. NBA teams actually tend to play harder initially when missing one of their best players, and the easiest way to grab value against a spread or ML is to handicap motivation and not talent. Further, people seem to have forgotten that the Mavs performed extremely well without Doncic the last time he was hurt – during his 4 game absence, DAL played as follows: Beat MIL by 4, Lost to BOS by 6, Beat PHI by 19, Lost to TOR by 3.

PHX -1 vs OKC

This line makes ZERO sense. OKC has been great on the road this year and PHX has generally played bad for the entirety of the season. That tells me Vegas knows something the public doesn’t. This line opened at OKC -1, before a wave of sharp money hit PHX around 3PM today and pushed the line across zero to PHX -1, despite close to 90% of bets on OKC at the time. PHX is also getting a favorable money split, with only 15% of bets but 35% of the money on that side (this indicates sharp action on PHX). This smells like a flat spot for OKC, let’s make a deal with the devil and lay -1 with PHX

PHX is popping in my sharp money indicator system for tonight. Home teams playing in conference games that satisfy the criteria for that system have gone 115-71 ATS (62%, +20% ROI) since 2016.

PHX / OKC U222.5

79% of bets are on the over, which makes sense given OKC is a high profile team and PHX is known as an offensively oriented outfit. However, OKC tends to play a very slow pace on the road (Under is 14-10, 58.3% in those games) and their shot distribution is skewed towards low EV mid-range jump shots (this is an easy way to depress scoring). 

PHX has a reputation as a high flying / scoring team, but they are only 53% to the over this year. Despite that 79% of bets backing the over, this line came down to 222.5 from 223.5, and there are bigger bets backing the under in this game.

Round Robin 4 x 3: DAL ML x CHI +5.5 x CHI / BKN U220.5 x PHX -1

This is a dart throw. Round Robins create a combination of parlays using the lines you include in the play. In the 4 x 3 Round Robin, you select 4 lines and the book will generate 4 distinct parlays covering all possible combinations of 3 teamers that you can make from that group of 4. If we have an edge vs. the Vig and are hitting above 52.5% of our ATS plays, this method gives us a much higher ROI than a standard 4 team parlay.

We enter unit size as the amount we bet on each parlay (if my unit is $0.25, then a total of $1.0 will be staked cumulatively on the 4 parlays). If we win ¾ bets, we return +3 units (or +$0.75 in that example). If we win all 4, we win +24 units (or $6.0 in the example). NOTE – those examples are based off 4 standard ATS lines at -110. Taking an underdog on the ML will obviously yield a higher return for us if we hit.

This is simply an aggressive way to attack the DAL ML – if they cash, we are in very good shape to make an exponential return on the play here.

AO Finals Picks + Day 12 Results

Let’s GO! Thiem comes from behind to win 3 sets in a row and cash another one for the boys. 

Thiem started slow but really found his groove in the second set. Looked dicey there in set 3 as he was on the verge of throwing up on court, but he stole the breaker and was not really threatened the rest of the match despite sets 3/4 both going to breakers. Pretty clear edge for Thiem as soon as the ball was in play all night, but I remain highly impressed with Zverev this week and feel he could be laying down the the foundation for an big step forward this season. One to watch on the faster hard courts in coming weeks.

That win takes us to 12-3 over the last 3 match days for +$12.9 units. Gonna find a way to attack both finals matches, will advise on confidence level for any picks as well. See below for results from Day 12, will add picks for the finals matches + handicaps below that section later today.

Aussie Open Day 12 Results:

✅Thiem -1.5 sets $2.1 / $2.0

AO Total thru Day 12 = 63-48, +$14.8 units

Aussie Open Day 13 Picks:
Kenin +3 gm (-115) $1.15 / $1.0
Kenin Over 21.5 gm (-130) $1.3 / $1.0
Kenin ML (+150) $0.5 / $0.75

Women’s Final Handicap

Garbine Muguruza vs Sofia Kenin (Kenin +3 @-120 / Kenin ML @ +140 / Over 22 gm @ -110)

A very interesting match! Muguruza comes in with a little more hype, having just beaten Halep in a very tight match, while Kenin comes in somewhat under the radar due to her playing style and the fact that one could argue Barty lost the semi-final more than Kenin won it. Nevertheless, both players come in riding hot form, with their statistical data showing substantial improvements against 2019 performance. On the 6M / 1M sample, Kenin outperforms Muguruza on serve (+9% Serve Hold rate) while this is cancelled out in part by her disadvantage on return (-6% on Serve Break rate). The forecast specific to this data only calls for Kenin to win -1% less serve points than Muguruza, which implies a 45% chance of winning the match.

Notably, much has been made of the improvement Muguruza has made this tournament vs. her data from a relatively poor 2019. No real argument against that narrative, but it does warrant further examination as we have not heard anything about the trend in Kenin’s data. Here are the Serve Hold / Serve Break delta’s from Kenin’s perspective over a 1Y / 6M time horizon and for the Aussie Open only:

• 1Y: Kenin +5.5% on Serve Hold / -4.6% on Serve Break (+0.9% Dominance Ratio)
• 6M: Kenin +8.3% Serve Hold / -3.6% on Serve Break (+4.7% Dominance Ratio)
• AO Data: +9.6% Serve Hold / -5.6% on Serve Break  (+4% Dominance Ratio)

As we can see, while Muguruza’s improvement has been notable, the Kenin has improved just as much, if not more, over the past 1Y. Her tournament data is actually superior to Muguruza, despite the dominance the Spaniard has displayed through recent rounds, and this is not something you would expect just skimming news coverage of this matchup or looking at the betting odds (you guys can already see where this is going). Keep the above in mind; we will come back to it in a few paragraphs…

Looking at performance vs. Common Opponents, we restricted the sample to include only players that Muguruza has played in 2020 (to account for her improvement over 2019 within the data set). Even doing this (which is generous for Muguruza as it essentially assumes a 100% chance of her playing at the highest level she is capable of), Kenin still wins Serve points at a +9% higher rate and only wins Return points at a -5% lower rate. This data produces a forecast for Kenin to out serveMuguruza by 1.4%, implying a 57% chance of Kenin winning the match.

Big takeaways from the sub-data big advantages for Kenin on 2nd Serve win rate (+8% over 6M / +15% at AO / +10% vs. common) alongside surprisingly equal 2nd Return win rates. Given her big edge on 2nd Serve and relatively equal 2nd Return performance, I would expect Kenin to comfortably outperform Muguruza in 2nd serve scenarios throughout this match. Given the fact that we expect a battle here and the generally tense nature of GS finals, an edge like that can make the difference between pinching a set in a tiebreaker and losing it outright (see Kenin v Barty).

Lastly, these 2 met in Beijing in November, and Kenin was priced at a -200 ML favorite in that match. While Muguruza has improved her level substantially since that time, we also laid out an argument above that Kenin has done exactly the same herself. With that said, jump from -200 favorite to a +140 underdog Kenin’s price in less than 2 months is simply not justified in the data, and is purely a result of public perception and recency bias affecting the betting market.

Kenin out served Muguruza by +10% in that matchup, and accounting for both of their statistical deltas / improvement from 2019 to the last 1M, we arrive at a H2H forecast for Kenin to out serve Muguruza by 4.1%, implying a 71% chance of her winning the match (ML = -240). I think this is slightly aggressive and we likely adjust that forecast down in isolation, simply because this is Kenin’s 1st GS final and Muguruza has been there before. That said, 4% is a large delta and even an aggressive adjustment would still make Kenin the favorite.

Combining all 3 models results in forecasted Serve win rates for Kenin at 60.4% and Muguruza at 59.2%, implying a 57% chance of Kenin winning the match (ML = -130), a 79% chance of Kenin winning at least 1 set and a 30% chance of her winning the match in straight sets. We also price a 17% chance of a tiebreaker in any given set, and a 28% chance of any set going to 12/13 games. The court conditions aren’t a huge edge either way, but likely favor Kenin to some degree given her game style and the fact that Muguruza prefers to absorb her opponent’s pace / use it to generate her own power / redirect. Muguruza also isn’t great when forced to hit the ball on the run – getting draw into long exchanges with a baseliner featuring the grit Kenin has displayed over the last 2 weeks will likely result in a higher error rate on her end.

With that being said, we obviously want to back Kenin here. I think it’s reasonable to do so on either the game spread @ +3, ML @ +140, or via taking over on total games @ 22 (this will be a dogfight and slower courts favor Over on totals, especially in the women’s game as it becomes more difficult to serve out sets  matches).

Day 12 Pick + Preview / Day 11 Results

Straight fuego last night from Kenin to cash our biggest play of the night. We went 5-1 and wound up +$5.9 units (where $1 unit = what you would typically bet “to win” on a normal wager. Day 11 results below:

Day 11 Picks (5-1, +$5.9)

Total thru Day 11 = 63-48, +$12.8

✅Kenin O21 $2.6 / $2.0

✅Kenin +4.5 gm $1.3 / $1.0

✅Kenin ML $1.0 / $2.6

✖️Halep ML $1.7 / $1.0

✅Halep / Muguruza O21.5 $1.3 / $1.0

✅Djoko -2.5 set $1.3 / $1.0

That’s now 11-3 in the last 2 days for +$10.9 units, and we had the 2 biggest upsets of the week in Thiem ML + Kenin ML. The YTD and Tournament numbers starting to look really good - let’s close strong! 

Here is our pick for the last semi-final match:

Day 12 Picks:

Thiem -1.5 set vs Zverev $2.2 / $2.0

Day 11 Match Preview + Handicap

Alexander Zverev vs Dominic Thiem (Thiem -1.5 sets @ -110 / Thiem -4 gm @ -110 / Thiem ML -200)

Both players come in on top of their game following strong victories vs. Wawrinka and Nadal. They profile similarly on trailing 1Y / 6M hard court stats (Thiem holds serve at +5.5% higher rate than Zverev, but breaks serve at a -3% lower rate) and vs. a sample of Common Opponents Faced. Thiem has some significant sub-edges within that data, consistent across both samples, faring much better on 2nd serve win rate (+7.7%) and on Break Pt Save % (+12%). Notably, Thiem historically saves break points at a higher rate than his typical serve win rate while Zverev saves break points at a lower rate than his standard service win rate (suggests Thiem is better at handling high pressure moments, 2nd serve deltas back that up as well). 

With that said, it’s important to note that experience + mental game definitely favor Thiem. This is his 3rd Grand Slam semi-final, and he’s won plenty of HUGE matches vs the top players in the game at this point. This will easily be the biggest match of Zverev’s career, and we already saw that it took him some time to settle in against Wawrinka – if he shows up that way, Thiem will not let him back into the match after a slow start.

The surface conditions also need to be noted here. The courts are playing extremely slow, and while the heat will likely speed things up to a degree, the expectation is that they will still play well slower than your typical hard court. Zverev struggles to generate his own pace on the forehand side, and generally prefers quicker surfaces. Thiem much prefers a slower surface, as he is better at creating angles and finishing points in that fashion rather than just trying to hit through his opponent as Zverev often does. This dynamic is evident in their H2H, with Zverev’s only 2 victories in 8 matches coming on extremely fast courts relative to their surface (Beijing / Hard and Madrid / Clay).

The H2H heavily favors Thiem. Thiem has won 4/5 on Clay, and 2/3 on Hard Courts. The statistics from the clay sample are not super relevant here, but Thiem has out served Zverev by +6.7% in the 2 Hard Court meetings since 2016 (one in 2017 and one in 2019). Notably, Thiem’s performances vs. Zverev on Hard Court have gotten progressively better over time, and this makes sense given his dramatic improvement on the surface over the last 1-2 years. For context, if Thiem were to out serve Zverev by +6.7% again in this match that would give him a 92% chance of winning and a 46% chance of winning in straight sets.

The combination of my 3 forecasts (weighted avg) yields a predicted +3.4% serve Delta for Thiem, implying a 76% chance of winning (ML -315) and a 56% chance of winning in 3 or 4 sets (-1.5 set = -126). I would worry about Zverev coming out and serving 80% of his first serves in again, and we would likely be in for a very tough / close match if that turns out to be the case. I tend to believe that Thiem’s game will put a ton of pressure on Zverev (in addition to the pressure of the moment) and it is more likely than not that Zverev does not perform on serve at the level we saw vs. Wawrinka. Thiem has beaten much better players on the road to get here, and has the experience necessary to show up and play his best game.

Thiem -1.5 sets is the bet – I show a fair amount of value on the ML as well, but prefer to limit the risk @-110 on the spread rather than -200 on the ML because Zverev’s performance here is so binary – if I know ahead of time that he shows up with his A+ serve then I don’t like the ML as much at -200, if he doesn’t, then -1.5 sets should cash easily.

Australian Open Day 11 Picks + Previews

Day 10  Results = 6-2, +$5.0

AO Total thru Day 10 = 58 - 47, +$6.9

Starting off with our favorite play of the night for match day 11, will add any others as the day progresses.

🚨🚨🚨Upset alert on Barty vs Kenin!

Day 11 Picks:
Kenin / Barty O21 (-130) $2.6 / $2.0
Kenin +4.5 (-130) $1.3 / $1.0
Kenin ML (+260) $1.0 / $2.6
Halep ML vs Muguruza (-170) $1.7 / $1.0
Halep / Muguruza O21.5 (-130) $1.3 / $1.0
Djoko -2.5 set vs Fed (-130) $1.3 / $1.0

Parlay: Kenin ML x Halep ML x Djoko -2.5 set (+1000) $0.25 / $2.5

Day 11 Match Previews + Handicaps

Sofia Kenin vs Ashleigh Barty (Kenin +4.5 / Over 21 gm / Kenin ML)

Kenin is peaking at the right time, taking her game to the next level as she prepares to compete for her first GS semifinal appearance. She has shown punishing ground strokes, excellent movement, and the mentality to work through pressure / adverse situations this week. I think Kenin matches up phenomenally with Barty – her flat / penetrating ground strokes and ability to go cross court and create angles with pace will give Barty fits – Kenin will be able to induce errors from Barty off this pattern as she has struggled in the past with leaving line shots wide when fending off flat cross court shots. Barty will also feel tremendous pressure, and Kenin is enough of a competitor to put her to the test. In their last 2 meetings, they have nearly equivalent serve %’s, and have split the series 1-1.

While Barty has the edge looking at 1Y Hard Court stats (Kenin holds serve at a -5% lower rate and only breaks at a +3% higher rate), Kenin has actually performed betterover the 6M sample (-1.8% on Serve Hold but +4% on Serve breaks). Underlying stats are relatively even, but Kenin has a major advantage on her performance attacking 2nd returns, winning those at a +10% higher rate over the last 6M. This data yields a forecast for Barty to serve at a 64.2% win rate and Kenin to hit 62.5% (42% probability of winning the match)

Kenin has shown her ability to raise her level and contend against the best players in the game over the past 6M, and compares well to Barty again when we look at a sample set of common opponents faced (Collins, Osaka, Svitolina, Riske, Pavlyuchenkova, Pliskova). In these matches. She has a slight disadvantage when looking at % of games held or broken, but her underlying stats match up well and she again has a significant edge on returning 2nd serves. The forecast off this data set is a +2.2% serve edge to Barty (40% chance of Kenin winning).

This will be a close, hotly contested match in which both players will feel immense pressure at certain points. Kenin’s ability to capitalize on 2nd return opportunities gives her a chance to make this a super tough match should Barty feel any pressure at all / that affects her serve at some point.

Looking at the H2H, I’ll say again that it is extremely close. Kenin has shown the ability to handle Barty’s variety and change of pace via the slice, and her matchup edges show up in the data from their prior meetings. Kenin actually out served Barty by +0.3% across their 2 most recent Outdoor Hard matchups, winning one and playing tight in the other (3-6 / 5-7). Given that she has been improving her game over the past 6M, I would expect her to fare just as well if not better in this meeting.

I’m going to back Kenin here as the combination of all 3 forecasts yields just a -1.1% serve deficit for Kenin (implied 45% chance of win) and certain dynamics specific to the matchup / the situation likely favor her here. Further, the courts are playing extremely slow, and this typically leads to players having trouble closing out sets / matches in the women’s game. I’m eyeing an O21 @-130 and would also take game spread if it hits +4.5. Kenin on the ML at +225 is a great value, as I have this priced closer to a +120 – I’ll take +225 on a borderline coin flip any day of the week (very similar set up on the value scale as the Thiem play last night).

Simona Halep vs Garbine Muguruza (Halep ML @ -170 / Over 21.5 @ -130)

Halep is as dialed in as I’ve ever seen her, and that level of determination has to be factored when handicapping this match. Both players come in on amazing form, as Muguruza looks to have recaptured her best level as well. By the numbers, Halep profiles as a favorite (holds -1.8% less than Muguruza but breaks serve +8% more). However, their actual 1st / 2nd serve and return numbers are much closer than that, and the delta in games won on serve / return is likely down to Halep slightly outperforming on break pt. saves / conversions. The 3 forecasts (Trailing Data, Common Opponent Data, H2H data) forecast a +2.2% serve edge to Halep in this match, making her a -150 favorite. That means the market has this priced about right based purely off past performance

I expect this to be a heavily return dominated match, with both players projected to win less than 60% of their serve points. That means we will see a number of momentum shifts, increasing the likelihood of this match going 3 sets.

Ultimately, while the market has this priced just about right, I think Halep is simply peaking and is the more likely of the two to show up with her best game tonight. Halep is incredibly consistent, and her performance on returns, ability to withstand long grinding points without making errors, and ability to take the ball early and rush Muguruza should see her prevail in the end.

Very close to being a pass for me on my personal betting card, but I will toss Halep ML in a “just for fun, pick every semifinal match” parlay. In the spirit of action, I’ll also recommend making a small play on Halep ML (-170) together with O22 (-105) for anyone who just wants to have a dog in the fight. I ultimately see Halep winning, and also expect this to be a tight match (at least to start) that could easily go 3 sets. If both of those things happen, you’ll win both bets.

—> Note – recommend buying total to 21.5 @ -130 if available

Novak Djokovic vs Roger Federer (Djokovic -2.5 sets @ -120)

Really tough match to get a grip on as I feel the numbers don’t really mean much here. Fed is clearly carrying an injury, and he would have faced a tall order to get through here even at full strength. The courts are extremely slow, making it more difficult for Federer to finish points, and we’ve seen this come through in his results as he’s been forced to play extended / tough matches against truly inferior competition. The court speed also explicitly favors Djokovic’s game style, part of why Djoko THUMPED Federer 3-1 (6-1 / 6-2 / 3-6 / 6-3) at this exact stage of the 2016 Aussie Open. Notably, Federer is now3 years older while Djokovic still appears to be at the peak of his game.

The weather is also supposed to heat up, intensifying the fitness deficit Federer faces here. I don’t see any way he wins this match even at relatively full strength, if he really is compromised this should be rather routine. Thus, I’m going to take a stab at Djokovic -2.5 sets – if Federer turns up healthy and plays a great match (given the circumstances), we probably have a 35% chance of cashing that bet. The more likely outcome is that Federer is bothered by the groin injury he suffered vs. Sandgren, and has trouble even keeping it close.

Australian Open Day 10 Recap

Straight FUEGO last night! Wrong on the Zverev / Wawrinka match but a clean sweep of everything else to finish +$5.0 units on the day.

Recap of Day 10 matches and bets we made below. Have also included the original handicaps for each play to give you guys a look at how our theories played out in reality.

Day 10  Results = 6-2, +$5.0

✅Halep -1.5 Set $1.1 / $1.0

✅Halep -3.5  $1.3 / $1.0

✅Halep ML x Muguruza ML  $1.0 / $1.1

✅Muguruza -3 $1.2 / $1.0

✖️Wawrinka O41 $2.3 / $2.0

✖️Wawrinka ML $1.0 / $1.2

✅Thiem +4.5 $2.4 / $2.0

✅Thiem ML $1.0 / $2.2

AO Total thru Day 10 = 58 - 47, +$6.9

Rafael Nadal vs Dominic Thiem (Thiem +4.5 @ -115 / Thiem ML +225)

What a match! We loved Thiem last night as we felt the surface suited him and the dynamics within this specific matchup favored him as well. The two had played close matches on Hard Court in the past, but this was before Thiem even became an elite threat on this surface and that improvement was enough to get him the victory. We felt the slow nature of the courts in Australia would elongate points and cause Nadal both strategic and physical issues, and it was clear he began to tire as the match wore on.

It was a close tie in the end, with Thiem taking 3 tiebreakers to win in 4 sets. Thiem out-served Nadal by 2% the two created a roughly equal number of break point chances.  This was exactly what we expected (essentially an even match), which left tremendous value on Thiem as a +4.5 game / +225 ML underdog. Glad it paid off, fantastic way to cap the session.

Thiem now moves on to play Zverev, who looks to be on an absolute serve heater. More on that later today once we assess Day 11 matchups.

Alexander Zverev vs Stan Wawrinka (Wawrinka ML @ +120 / Over 41 @ -115)

I must be honest that we felt pretty good about our position here after Wawrinka took the first set with ease. Zverev looked to be feeling the nerve’s we mentioned in our pre-match write up in the opening set and Stan absolutely red-lined his game to take it 6-1. However, Zverev appears to have sorted his daddy issues and truly became a man last night. He kept his cool through Wawrinka’s opening blitz and came back on an absolute mission in the following set, winning 20/20 serve points to take it 6-3. It was at this point that Wawrinka began to struggle physically with the conditions, and the confidence Zverev gained from the 2nd set turnaround carried him through the rest of the match.

It was truly a sublime serving performance from the German, who looks nearly impossible to beat if he can maintain that level of performance (80% first serves in, 76% of 1st serve points won). Wawrinka looked to have peaked too early in the match, as he was unable to recapture that level of performance in the subsequent 3 sets and really did not stand a chance as he would have needed achieve virtual perfection on serve to keep up.

Looking forward, Thiem vs Zverev looks to be one hell of a match. Zverev comes in playing the best tennis of his life… and Thiem comes in playing the best tennis of his life. Each of the two young stars overtook entrenched members of the old guard in the QF round, and it will be difficult to pick a winner here

Anett Kontaveit vs Simona Halep (Halep ML -250 / Halep -3.5 gm @ -130 / Halep -1.5 set @ -110)

Pretty simple re-cap here – Halep absolutely dominated this entire match. Halep showed up with her A game and seems almost impossibly determined to claim her 3rd major. Her level of focus is remarkable, and I can count on 1 hand the number of serves she did not return into play through the entire match. Kontaveit struggled with the moment, as we expected, and the match got away from her quickly as she faced relentless pressure. Difficult to see anyone beating Halep here, but I took a look at the stats and Muguruza actually profiles rather favorably on the trailing data, while she has also had success vs. Halep in their H2H hard court history. Should be an interesting handicap.

Garbine Muguruza vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (Muguruza -3 @ -120)

Muguruza also put her best foot forward, and played a relentless match in her own right. Pavlyuchenkova was always going to struggle in this matchup based on her game style, and we felt Pavlyuchenkova would struggle under the spotlight of another Grand Slam QF (she was 0-5 in that spot coming in). Muguruza executed, and we cashed on her game spread -3 (-120) and the Halep x Muguruza ML parlay (+110).

Australian Open Day 10 Picks + Previews

AO Total thru Day 9 = 52-45, +$1.9

Starting off with the Women's matches, will add Men shortly as they don't begin for a few hours:

* Model outputs at bottom of post

Day 10 Picks - Women

Halep -1.5 Set (-110) $1.1 / $1.0

Halep -3.5 (-130) $1.3 / $1.0

Halep ML x Muguruza ML (+120) $1.0 / $1.1

Muguruza -3 gm (-120) $1.2 / $1.0

Wawrinka / Zverev O41 (-115) $2.3 / $2.0
Wawrinka ML (+120) $1.0 / $1.2
Thiem +4.5 gm vs Nadal (-120) $2.4 / $2.0
Thiem ML (+225) $1.0 / $2.25

Day 10 Match Previews and Handicaps:

Rafael Nadal vs Dominic Thiem (Thiem +4.5 @ -115 / Thiem ML 
Slow courts don’t actually benefit Nadal if you look at his results across hard court surfaces. He is more reliant on a high bouncing court, slow or fast (forehand topspin up + away from opp backhand), while his clay performance also shows he does better on faster / high bouncing courts. Aussie courts are playing extremely slow and are bouncing low. This protects Thiem’s 1-hand backhand and will create longer / grinding points. Even further, this is a night match so the courts will be even slower and give less bounce than usual. Thiem is definitely the fresher of the two after Nadal’s 5 setter vs Kyrgios (Thiem hardly broke a sweat vs Monfils), and Nadal’s FOREHAND, of all things, looked vulnerable in his last match. Thiem should have beaten Nadal in NYC 2 years ago when he murdered him through 2 sets – he has gotten significantly better since then and has played enough big matches to rise to the occasion here

The Trailing Hard-Court data favors Nadal, he has a slight edge on Serve Holds and a more substantial 8% edge on serve breaks. The trends are relatively consistent across both the 1Y / 6M data and the Common opponent sample. However, these two played a H2H at the US open that was extremely close. Thiem won the first 2 sets with relative ease, before Nadal fought back for a 5-set victory in a deciding tie breaker. Thiem showed how he can hurt Nadal when his weapons are firing early in that match, and he has only improved his level of play / gained big match experience since that match. Adjusting for their stat deltas from that time period to the last 6M, I get a forecasted serve win % differential of +1.2% for Thiem. 

These courts are even slower / lower bouncing than those in NYC, and I think Thiem is a live dog in this match. Easy take on the +4.5-game spread, will bet ML as well.

Alexander Zverev vs Stan Wawrinka (Wawrinka ML @ +120 / Over 41 @ -115)
What a match! Stan and Zverev both come in playing phenomenal tennis, and this should be a tightly contested affair. Trailing 1Y hard court data definitely favors Zverev and justifies his price, but I believe 2019 Wawrinka is not the Wawrinka we are getting today. He has spoken multiple times about how he feels fully recovered from his injury, and finally getting a full offseason of training instead of recovery has left him moving better now than at any time in the past 3 years. Looking at the last 6M of data, this looks like a dead even match. Wawrinka holds serve at a +4% higher rate than Zverev but breaks at a -4% lower rate. 

Wawrinka is also a big match player. He has a history of taking his game to the next level against top players on big stages and is really the only player on tour to have consistently challenged Nadal / Djoko / Federer at grand slams. Looking at the common opponent sample (which should account for Wawrinka’s tendency to step it up against better players), Wawrinka actually profiles as a slight favorite. He holds +8% edge on serve holds and only a -5% deficit on serve breaks. Crucially, Wawrinka has significantly better numbers on 2nd serve and break point save % across each data set. In a close / high pressure match, I always like backing the player with a big edge on serving in pressure situations. 

Wawrinka has gone 7-3 in his last 10 Grand Slam matchups vs. top 10 players, and is the one player outside the big 3 that has consistently shown he can rise to the occasion. On the other hand, this is Zverev’s first Grand Slam quarterfinal, and one has to be concerned with his ability to handle that and deliver given that he has struggled with pressure moments in the past (his 1st serve tends to miss more, and then 2nd serve breaks down under pressure). This further stresses the importance of Zverev’s disadvantage on 2nd serve and BP save’s
The H2H favors Zverev, but their last matchup was in 2017. This was generally a dark time for Stan, who has spent much of the time since 2017 recovering from an injury / surgery he underwent that year. If we adjust the H2H statistics for each player’s stat deltas from 2017 to the last 6M, we get a forecast of +2% serve win rate for Zverev


The combination of all 3 models indicates a dead even match. I can see why Zverev is favored, but with the data even and so many sub-edges pointing to Stan I want to back him here. Zverev has looked incredible but has face extremely flaccid competition with the exception of an exhausted Rublev. I will certainly hammer this over – I don’t see a way this match ends 3-0 and expect serves to dominate here so we should get at least 1 breaker. I’m also going to back Wawrinka with a ½ stake on the ML, since I see some value in his price at +120. 

Anett Kontaveit vs Simona Halep (Halep ML -250 / Halep -3.5 gm @ -130 / Halep -1.5 set @ -110)

Kontaveit has done very well to get here, but I don’t see her making it through Halep in this match. She was somewhat luck to beat Swiatek, who was the better player through 2 sets and twice failed to consolidate break leads in the second set already up 1-0. Swiatek then succumbed to fatigue / injury in the 3rd, and while Kontaveit still had to do her job to win the match she did show some serious nerves allowing the hobbled teenager to break her twice while serving for the match (giving up a 5-1 lead all the way to 5-5). A player with Halep’s experience and mentality will have a much better grip on how to handle the pressure moments and that is a substantial edge at this stage in the tournament.

Looking at the data, Halep slightly outperforms on 1Y / 3M blended stats, holding serve +0.2% more and Breaking close to +1% more. Adjusting the sample down to Common Opponents faced (a better way to assess performance in context of the ability level for the player they are facing), Halep has a much more substantial edge – she holds serve +7% more and breaks serve +6% more. The H2H history occurred in 2017, when Kontaveit had yet to develop into a good player, and Halep dominated both matchups. Adjusting for the surface difference (one matchup was on clay) and the improvement in Kontaveit’s data from 2017 stats to last 6M stats, my model still forecasts a +7% serve delta for Halep in this match with an 81% chance of winning and a 52% chance of straight sets.

Combining all 3 models yields a +6% forecasted serve delta for Halep, giving her a 77% chance of winning the match (-330 fair value odds) and a 47% chance of doing so in straight sets (+110). However, this does not account for any potential nerves felt by Kontaveit and her tendency to perform poorly vs. elite competition. Kontaveit is 3-7 vs. top 20 opponents and 1-5 vs. top 10 players in the last 1Y on Hard Courts.

Halep is dialed in and heat seeking for her 3rd grand slam with the draw essentially shattered save for Barty – any wobbles from Kontaveit will result in a routine win for Halep. Is it possible that Kontaveit shows up on a heater and turns this into a tight match (thereby cashing her side of the game spread / set spread lines)? Absolutely. But I see that as an unlikely proposition, with the median outcome clearly favoring Halep.

Garbine Muguruza vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (Muguruza -3 @ -120)

Muguruza has a substantial edge on trailing Hard Court stats, Holding serve +3.5% more and breaking serve +4.3% more often than Pav. Crucially, she has significantly better numbers on 2nd serve, break point save % and break point conversion %, which should serve her well if this match winds up being close. It also suggests that Muguruza is better equipped to handle the pressure of the moment. Not only has she performed better on pressure points historically, but she has also played a number of matches late in grand slams as well. Pavlyuchenka’s ability to handle pressure has to be called into question, not only on that basis but also because she gave up a double break lead in set 1 and was broken again while up 2 breaks in set 3 of her match vs. Kerber. This probably has something to do with her 0-5 record in GS quarter final matches.

The H2H is extremely one sided – Muguruza is 3-0, out serving Pav by +11.5% and holding serve in +23% more games over those 3 matches. The entire history on hard court occurred prior to 2017, however, and that reduces the relevance of those numbers on a standalone basis. If we then adjust for both players statistical deltas from 2016 to 2019 (Pav improves, Muguruza roughly the same / slightly worse), we get a forecast for Muguruza to out serve Pav by roughly +4%, implying a 72% chance of winning the match (-250).

Muguruza matches up well vs. Pav, who likes to hit huge groundstrokes while trying to hit the opponent off the court. Muguruza is a classic counterpuncher who loves to soak up the opponents pace and use it to generate her own power / re-direct balls back the other way. I’ve noticed Pavlyuchenkova doesn’t move particularly well after taking huge swings, and if Muguruza is sharp today she will be able to take full advantage of that dynamic.

Combining all 3 forecasting methods results in an average serve delta of +2.5% to Muguruza, which prices the ML at just about -200.  This is roughly fair value vs. the ML, but I would even adjust that further towards Muguruza given the matchup dynamics and this being Pav’s inability to win QF Grand Slam matches in the past (0-5). The risk is that Pav shows up and red lines her game for 3 sets, which we have seen her do in spurts over the past week. I am going to avoid any large ML exposure for now with that in mind (may parlay with Halep ML combined) and look to the game spread at -3 instead. If this match plays to my expectations and the matchup dynamics noted are present, I don’t think Muguruza will have trouble closing this out and covering the number… if I’m wrong, I’d rather be laying -120 on the spread than -200.

Australian Open Day 9 Recap

Recap of Day 9 matches and bets we made below. Have also included the original handicaps for each play to give you guys a look at how our theories played out in reality. 

Not a great day, but we were frankly a point here and there away from easily cashing Over 22 in Barty / Kvitova, which was our strongest play of the day. Would make that bet again in a heartbeat, and there was close to a 30% chance of the Under hitting after that match went into a set 1 tiebreak. 

Time to recap the action and move on to an incredible slate of matches in QF round:

Day 9 Results = 3-3, -$1.3

✖️Fed -2.5 sets $2.1
✅Fed  O32 $1.7 / $1.5
✅Kenin -1.5 set $0.5 / $0.55
✅Kenin -3.5 gm $0.6 / $0.5
✖️Kvitova O22 $1.25
✖️Kvitova ML $0.5

AO Total thru Day 9 = 52-45, +$1.9

Sofia Kenin vs Ons Jabeur (Kenin -1.5 set @ +110, Kenin -3.5 gm @ -120)

This match went roughly as expected. Jabeur showed up and played a solid match, but Kenin was too strong in the end and showed some strong nerve in high pressure moments. We noted in our preview that Kenin should have a big advantage on 2nd serve and break points, and this is essentially where the match was won (Kenin 55% on 2nd serve vs. 37% for Jabeur, 6/7 BP save vs. 6/9 for Jabeur). Kenin turned up the heat and held Jabeur off while facing 3 BP at 2-3 in the 2nd, and that was all she wrote as Jabeur seemed to put everything into that game.

I think Kenin actually matches up well vs. Barty. She is essentially a more aggressive / better version of Q Wang, hitting very flat groundstrokes and showing good movement on court. Flat ground strokes tend to give Barty some trouble, and she will have all the pressure in the world on her shoulders. Will run numbers on it tonight and figure out the angle of attack

Ashleigh Barty vs Petra Kvitova (Kvitova ML @ +115 for ½ unit / Over 22 gm -120 for 1 unit)

Tough pill to swallow on Kvitova ML and particularly on O22. This was a very tight match in the first set, with both players having their chances and it ultimately coming down to a tiebreaker (both players had won exactly the same amount of points in the match at one point during that tiebreaker). We looked in great shape on the total going into the breaker, and even after Kvitova lost the set we had a straight line to cashing O22 (13 games played, Kvitova serving first so even a 1 break loss from her in set 3 gives us +10 and gets us to 23)

However, Kvitova lost her serve to give Barty the breaker and all the air came out of her balloon. She re-emerged in the 2nd looking discouraged and tired, and immediately gave up her first service game. She then went down a double break, broke back late to get us back on track for the over before losing her last service game and cucking us on our bet in a big way.

Takeaways – Barty played a competent and professional match. It was clear she dealt with some nerves at certain stages, and she did not put forth a fantastic performance by any means. The match could have gone either way and I have a feeling we would be looking at a very different 2nd set had Kvitova won that breaker. Regardless, she showed mental grit to make it through here and she simply fought a little bit harder than Kvitova. No complaints with either of the two bets we made here, despite losing both. This was an extremely tight match early on and it essentially came down to a coin flip in that breaker (and I’ll take +115 in a coin flip any day). Barty simply won the big points and Kvitova suffered a letdown after that disappointment.

Roger Federer vs Tennys Sandgren (Federer -2.5 sets @-140 / Over 32 gm @ -110)

What a match! We expected Sandgren to outperform his 1Y and 6M data given the form he’s been on, and used his 3M / 1M data against Roger’s historical data in our model to reflect that. This turned out to be the correct decision, but he even outperformed that sample of data within the context of his match.

Fed took the first set easily, dropped the 2nd after an early break. In the 3rd, we started to see him struggle with an injury, and it became clear he was not 100% physically and he was moving poorly and could not get anything going against Sandgren’s serve. Sandgren quickly took a 3-1 set lead, but Federer showed why he is one of the greatest competitors of all time by massaging his way to a breaker in set 4, winning the breaker, and taking the 5th set without facing a break point.

Takeaways: We were absolutely correct that Sandgren would beat expectations in this matchup, and we come away from the tournament incredibly impressed with the improvements to his game. He has clearly taken a step forward and it will be interesting to see how he performs in coming weeks when the stakes are relatively lower. I will look to back him if he retains this level of focus / intensity, but we’ve seen him revert before after runs like this. Federer did very well to get through this match, but I have a tough time giving him a fair chance to beat Djoko given the injury he is clearly carrying. Perhaps it was more soreness than an actual muscle pull or structural issue, but we will have to monitor this carefully before placing any wagers on that match.

Novak Djokovic vs Milos Raonic (Pass)

Was curious to see how Raonic fared here, as statistical excellence on serve starts to have an almost exponential effect on win probability once you get up into the 80% serve point win rate, regardless of how poor you are on return. Raonic hadn’t faced a single break point coming into this match, and had done a good job being aggressive / picking his spots on return, knowing all he needed was the occasional break to win sets with ease.

That said, Djoko’s pure excellence in the return game was likely to negate this, and that’s what we saw as the match played out. Djoko fared very well against the Raonic 2nd serve, and Milos didn’t have a great day re: getting his first serves in (63%). We considered playing Raonic on the game spread in hopes that he could get a set or 2 to a breaker and cash +6, but did not pull the trigger as our model showed that the distance between Djokovic’s return and the average return negated enough of Raonic’s serve delta vs. the average serve to give him a significant edge (considering that Djoko was always likely to serve well in this match). In the end, we were right about the reasons not to place the bet, but the gm spread would have pushed on +6 as Raonic took set 3 to a tie break.

Takeaways – Djoko looks like he is peaking again and will likely brush Federer off in the Semi-Final. He looks highly likely to win this tournament, as Nadal will struggle against Djokovic in these slow + low bouncing conditions. Only bogey there are 2 wild cards in Thiem and Zverev – both seem like they are hitting peak form, and may present difficult challenges to Djoko. Thiem actually beat him in the fall on Indoor Hard, and I have a sneaking suspicion that he has the best chance of anyone left in the draw to upset Novak.