AO Total thru Day 10 = 58 - 47, +$6.9
Starting off with our favorite play of the night for match day 11, will add any others as the day progresses.
🚨🚨🚨Upset alert on Barty vs Kenin!
Day 11 Picks:
Kenin / Barty O21 (-130) $2.6 / $2.0
Kenin +4.5 (-130) $1.3 / $1.0
Kenin ML (+260) $1.0 / $2.6
Halep ML vs Muguruza (-170) $1.7 / $1.0
Halep / Muguruza O21.5 (-130) $1.3 / $1.0
Djoko -2.5 set vs Fed (-130) $1.3 / $1.0
Parlay: Kenin ML x Halep ML x Djoko -2.5 set (+1000) $0.25 / $2.5
Day 11 Match Previews + Handicaps
Sofia Kenin vs Ashleigh Barty (Kenin +4.5 / Over 21 gm / Kenin ML)
Kenin is peaking at the right time, taking her game to the next level as she prepares to compete for her first GS semifinal appearance. She has shown punishing ground strokes, excellent movement, and the mentality to work through pressure / adverse situations this week. I think Kenin matches up phenomenally with Barty – her flat / penetrating ground strokes and ability to go cross court and create angles with pace will give Barty fits – Kenin will be able to induce errors from Barty off this pattern as she has struggled in the past with leaving line shots wide when fending off flat cross court shots. Barty will also feel tremendous pressure, and Kenin is enough of a competitor to put her to the test. In their last 2 meetings, they have nearly equivalent serve %’s, and have split the series 1-1.
While Barty has the edge looking at 1Y Hard Court stats (Kenin holds serve at a -5% lower rate and only breaks at a +3% higher rate), Kenin has actually performed betterover the 6M sample (-1.8% on Serve Hold but +4% on Serve breaks). Underlying stats are relatively even, but Kenin has a major advantage on her performance attacking 2nd returns, winning those at a +10% higher rate over the last 6M. This data yields a forecast for Barty to serve at a 64.2% win rate and Kenin to hit 62.5% (42% probability of winning the match)
Kenin has shown her ability to raise her level and contend against the best players in the game over the past 6M, and compares well to Barty again when we look at a sample set of common opponents faced (Collins, Osaka, Svitolina, Riske, Pavlyuchenkova, Pliskova). In these matches. She has a slight disadvantage when looking at % of games held or broken, but her underlying stats match up well and she again has a significant edge on returning 2nd serves. The forecast off this data set is a +2.2% serve edge to Barty (40% chance of Kenin winning).
This will be a close, hotly contested match in which both players will feel immense pressure at certain points. Kenin’s ability to capitalize on 2nd return opportunities gives her a chance to make this a super tough match should Barty feel any pressure at all / that affects her serve at some point.
Looking at the H2H, I’ll say again that it is extremely close. Kenin has shown the ability to handle Barty’s variety and change of pace via the slice, and her matchup edges show up in the data from their prior meetings. Kenin actually out served Barty by +0.3% across their 2 most recent Outdoor Hard matchups, winning one and playing tight in the other (3-6 / 5-7). Given that she has been improving her game over the past 6M, I would expect her to fare just as well if not better in this meeting.
I’m going to back Kenin here as the combination of all 3 forecasts yields just a -1.1% serve deficit for Kenin (implied 45% chance of win) and certain dynamics specific to the matchup / the situation likely favor her here. Further, the courts are playing extremely slow, and this typically leads to players having trouble closing out sets / matches in the women’s game. I’m eyeing an O21 @-130 and would also take game spread if it hits +4.5. Kenin on the ML at +225 is a great value, as I have this priced closer to a +120 – I’ll take +225 on a borderline coin flip any day of the week (very similar set up on the value scale as the Thiem play last night).
Simona Halep vs Garbine Muguruza (Halep ML @ -170 / Over 21.5 @ -130)
Halep is as dialed in as I’ve ever seen her, and that level of determination has to be factored when handicapping this match. Both players come in on amazing form, as Muguruza looks to have recaptured her best level as well. By the numbers, Halep profiles as a favorite (holds -1.8% less than Muguruza but breaks serve +8% more). However, their actual 1st / 2nd serve and return numbers are much closer than that, and the delta in games won on serve / return is likely down to Halep slightly outperforming on break pt. saves / conversions. The 3 forecasts (Trailing Data, Common Opponent Data, H2H data) forecast a +2.2% serve edge to Halep in this match, making her a -150 favorite. That means the market has this priced about right based purely off past performance
I expect this to be a heavily return dominated match, with both players projected to win less than 60% of their serve points. That means we will see a number of momentum shifts, increasing the likelihood of this match going 3 sets.
Ultimately, while the market has this priced just about right, I think Halep is simply peaking and is the more likely of the two to show up with her best game tonight. Halep is incredibly consistent, and her performance on returns, ability to withstand long grinding points without making errors, and ability to take the ball early and rush Muguruza should see her prevail in the end.
Very close to being a pass for me on my personal betting card, but I will toss Halep ML in a “just for fun, pick every semifinal match” parlay. In the spirit of action, I’ll also recommend making a small play on Halep ML (-170) together with O22 (-105) for anyone who just wants to have a dog in the fight. I ultimately see Halep winning, and also expect this to be a tight match (at least to start) that could easily go 3 sets. If both of those things happen, you’ll win both bets.
—> Note – recommend buying total to 21.5 @ -130 if available
Novak Djokovic vs Roger Federer (Djokovic -2.5 sets @ -120)
Really tough match to get a grip on as I feel the numbers don’t really mean much here. Fed is clearly carrying an injury, and he would have faced a tall order to get through here even at full strength. The courts are extremely slow, making it more difficult for Federer to finish points, and we’ve seen this come through in his results as he’s been forced to play extended / tough matches against truly inferior competition. The court speed also explicitly favors Djokovic’s game style, part of why Djoko THUMPED Federer 3-1 (6-1 / 6-2 / 3-6 / 6-3) at this exact stage of the 2016 Aussie Open. Notably, Federer is now3 years older while Djokovic still appears to be at the peak of his game.
The weather is also supposed to heat up, intensifying the fitness deficit Federer faces here. I don’t see any way he wins this match even at relatively full strength, if he really is compromised this should be rather routine. Thus, I’m going to take a stab at Djokovic -2.5 sets – if Federer turns up healthy and plays a great match (given the circumstances), we probably have a 35% chance of cashing that bet. The more likely outcome is that Federer is bothered by the groin injury he suffered vs. Sandgren, and has trouble even keeping it close.
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