AO Total thru Day 8 = 43-35, +$2.2
Starting off with the Women's matches, will add Men shortly as they don't begin for a few hours:
* Model outputs at bottom of post
Day 9 Picks - Women:
Kenin -3.5 vs Jabeur $0.6 / $.5
Kenin -1.5 Set Jabeur $0.5 / $0.55
Kvitova / Barty O22 (-125) $1.25 / $1.0
Kvitova ML (+115) $0.5 / $0.57
Federer -2.5 sets (-140) $2.1 / $1.5
Over 32 Games (-115) $1.7 / $1.5
AO Day 9 Rationale - Women:
Roger Federer vs Tennys Sandgren (Federer -2.5 sets @ -140 / Over 32 Games @ -115)
Federer is obviously on a different level than Sandgren, but Tenny’s has raised his own level significantly this week. He has show improved fitness / physicality after this offseason, and its translated to his movement on the court. He excels on slow hard courts as a result, part of why he’s made his 3 biggest tournament in Australia (slow courts). Assuming injuries don’t hamper Sandgren severely, I ran my model using 1Y / 3M stats for Federer and 3M / 1M stats for Sandgren to capture his improved performance in 2020.
Sandgren has a substantial deficit on serve return in both comparisons, but actually has held serve +3% more than Federer in his 3M sample. The probability model run using that data gives Sandgren a 27% chance to win each set and a 12% chance to win the match (+730). Notably, because this should be a heavily serve dominated match, I’ve got the chance of a tiebreaker in any given set at 28% and over 12 or more games in any given set at 37%.
I do expect Sandgren to be somewhat hobbled as the match goes on, and it is likely Fed can coast on serve given Sandgren’s weakness on return. I believe Sandgren keeps this somewhat close, but that Federer prevails in 3 sets. Federer -2.5 sets (, hedged with Over 32 games. Very good opportunity to hit both, limited loss on either side.
Ashleigh Barty vs Petra Kvitova (Over 22 games @ -120 and 1/2 bet on Kvitova ML @ +115)
Federer is obviously on a different level than Sandgren, but Tenny’s has raised his own level significantly this week. He has show improved fitness / physicality after this offseason, and its translated to his movement on the court. He excels on slow hard courts as a result, part of why he’s made his 3 biggest tournament in Australia (slow courts). Assuming injuries don’t hamper Sandgren severely, I ran my model using 1Y / 3M stats for Federer and 3M / 1M stats for Sandgren to capture his improved performance in 2020.
Sandgren has a substantial deficit on serve return in both comparisons, but actually has held serve +3% more than Federer in his 3M sample. The probability model run using that data gives Sandgren a 27% chance to win each set and a 12% chance to win the match (+730). Notably, because this should be a heavily serve dominated match, I’ve got the chance of a tiebreaker in any given set at 28% and over 12 or more games in any given set at 37%.
I do expect Sandgren to be somewhat hobbled as the match goes on, and it is likely Fed can coast on serve given Sandgren’s weakness on return. I believe Sandgren keeps this somewhat close, but that Federer prevails in 3 sets. Federer -2.5 sets (, hedged with Over 32 games. Very good opportunity to hit both, limited loss on either side.
Ashleigh Barty vs Petra Kvitova (Over 22 games @ -120 and 1/2 bet on Kvitova ML @ +115)
Barty is the odds-on favorite, but the numbers are telling me a slightly different story. Kvitova actually has an edge looking at 6M performance on Hard Courts, holding serve at a +2% higher rate than Barty and breaking serve at a +5.5% higher rate. These stats are more even when looking at the last month of stats, but some trends are consistent throughout: Kvitova has a big edge on 2nd returns and is better than Barty at Saving Break Points. She also has a slight edge on 2nd serve performance. In a match likely to feature some pressure moments, that could be a big advantage.
Further Barty has never beaten a top 10 player at a Major and has only beaten 1 player ranked in the top 20 at that time. Barty should feel some pressure in this match playing as the #1 rank in her home major, and the combination of big stage x elite opponent might throw her off at some stage in this match.
My main concerns betting Kvitova is Barty’s ability to change pace and disrupt her rhythm, Barty’s historical success vs left handers (she likes the way the ball comes into her forehand and back hand w/ LH spin. These concerns are reflected in their H2H history, where Kvitova had initial success winning their first 4 matches before Barty won the last 3 they played in 2019 (we saw some of the matchup specific tailwinds aid Barty in those matches) and took 3 of 4 meetings last year. This is primarily why Barty is favored here.
However, the score line from the last H2H is misleading. While Barty beat Kvitova 6-4 / 6-2 at the WTA finals, that match took place indoors and Kvitova has been surprisingly poor indoors throughout the last 2 years (6-7 record) – she performs much better outdoors, while Barty is slightly better indoors. Many people will glance at that score and assume Barty has a big edge here, and that perception has likely created some value on Kvitova.
Looking at outdoor hard results, their last 3 H2H’s (2019 and later) have been almost dead even in aggregate, with Kvitova winning a slightly higher % of serve points (+1%) and having a big advantage on 2nd serve % across the 3 matches (+5%). Simulating the match using their statistics from the prior 3 matches results in a 57% chance of Kvitova winning (implied ML -132). The combined forecast using all 3 models (Trailing Stats, Common Opponent Stats and H2H stats) yields an implied line of Kvitova -125.
Taking everything into account, even adjusting for some surface advantage to Barty (slow and low bounce) and the home crowd, there is clearly some value in Kvitova at +115, and I certainly can’t Barty at -140. That said, this should be a serve dominated + closely contested match (I have 32% chance of any given set going to 12 or more games). That leaves a 46% chance of 2 straight sets going under that number, and I do think there is value on O22 games given the residual chances of this match going 3 sets. I am going to stake ½ unit on Kvitova ML, and a full unit on the game total (I am buying this to O21.5 @-135, 9 + 13 is a potential score line for 2 sets.
Sofia Kenin vs Ons Jabeur (Kenin -1.5 set @+110 / Kenin -3.5 gm @-120)
Kenin is clearly the better player here, showing better hard-court data on a 1Y and 6M time horizon (+9% serve hold, +1% serve break) with notable edges on 2nd return and on Break Point Save %. These trends carry over into the common opponent sample, but the data is slightly closer there – Kenin has a smaller edge. The H2H history is somewhat misleading. They played a relatively close match that went straight sets to Kenin in Jan 2019, and another on clay in which Kenin destroyed Jabeur before she retired in the 2nd Set. The Hard-Court match took place early in the season, well before Kenin truly made her ascension to the player she is today – her progression of performance against top 20 competition from early in the year to later in the year demonstrates how much she improved. Jabeur is also improving, but simply lacks the weapons and consistency that Kenin has at her disposal.
My model prices slight value on Kenin, but it is not a strong edge. If Jabeur comes out and red lines her game for 3 sets, this will be a very tight match that could possibly go the wrong way. That said, anything less than Jabeur’s bet probably results in a routine victory to Kenin. She has the movement and powerful / flat groundstrokes to maim her opponent in these slow / low bouncing conditions. Taking that into account, I am going to lay a smaller bet on Kenin -3.5 gm, even though I rarely lay game spreads bigger than -2.5. If she is truly a good value (under the assumption that both play to their numbers), then this bet should cash. If Jabeur plays out of her mind, I’d rather be laying -110 than -250.
Model Output: Kvitova v Barty
Model Output: Kenin v Jabeur
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