About Me

Equity Analysts and sports fans, always looking for a new market to beat. We are contrarian style bettors, focusing on isolating value when public perception has created dislocation in a market. We blend statistical models and spot systems with market analysis (looking for situations where sharp money comes against public money) to make our selections. We primarily focus on NFL, NBA, and Tennis. Soccer is a specialty as well, but at this point we are not confident in saying we have a LT ROI + edge on that front.

Monday, January 27, 2020

NBA Picks for Monday 1/27 and 1/26 Results / Recap

Just a review of yesterday’s plays for now - any action for today will be posted here above the recap by 6 PM EST.

NBA Results for 1/26 (3-3, -$1.3)

YTD = 14-10 ATS, +$0.45 units 

✅DEN -3 $1.1 / $1.0
✖️SA +3.5 $1.1 / $1.0
✅SA U221 $1.1 / $1.0
✅NO +1 $1.1 / $1.0
✖️ORL +3.5 $1.1 / $1.0
✖️WAS +1 $1.1 / $1.0
✖️SA +3.5 x SA U221 x ORL +3.5 x WAS +1 (Round Robin 4 x 3) $1.0 / $6.0

Mediocre day with a couple of very sharp lines failing to cash. Review of our action:
  • DEN was a routine win for us, taking a lead early in the 4Q and never giving it back. Pretty clear that Harden absence impacted HOU’s rhythm as we expected, and DEN powered through despite their own injury absences 
  • SA +3.5 was a tough beat, losing to TOR by 4. Was very close for most of the 4Q and we just got nipped at the end on fouling dynamics. The Under in that game was not too sweaty, more points than we wanted in the first half but it really slowed down once SA was in the game and able to control the pace as the home team.
  • NO took it to BOS and seemingly just wanted it more. Part of the handicap was a flat spot for BOS (potentially were going to be without Brown or Tatum as well), while NO would be juiced up to get Zion his first home win in front of a raucous crowd. 
  • Both ORL and WAS let us down, never really getting into the game. Wizards gave up 150 points, and you just can’t scout that type of lackluster effort. ORL play was predicated on a flat spot system flagging on LAC, and we were simply wrong on that theory - they showed up to play



NBA Picks for Monday 1/27

YTD = 14-10 ATS, +$0.45 units 

Picks will be posted here before 6 PM - a couple of interesting spots on the board today.



No comments:

Post a Comment