NBA Picks for 1/26

NBA picks for 1/19/20 as we look to bridge the action gap until Tennis tonight.

Some good lines out there today where public is on one side and some sharp money signals going the other way. That dynamic tends to be rather powerful this time of year, as motivation and injury / rest absences are more volatile right before and after the all star break.

YTD = 11-7 ATS, +$1.75 units

DEN -3 vs HOU $1.1 / $1.0
SA +3.5 vs TOR $1.1 / $1.0
SA / TOR U221 $1.1 / $1.0
NO +1 vs BOS $1.1 / $1.0
ORL +3.5 vs LAC $1.1 / $1.0
WAS +1 vs ATL $1.1 / $1.0

SA +3.5 x SA U221 x ORL +3.5 x WAS +1
- Round Robin 4 x 3 $1.0 / $6.0

DEN has some sharp money behind it, and while they are getting more public support than my typical back, HOU is without Harden tonight and I always look to fade them when he is out as the iso-centric offense leaves them rudderless when the focal point of that offense is absent. DEN is missing some guys as well, but in a home game, at altitude, I like them to get the job done.

SA is a public fade and I like taking teams that play better at home than the road right after they've suffered a bad road loss (they should play better at home but public perception is skewed after seeing them play bad in a historically tough spot for them). Pace of play is much slower in SA home games, and 75% of bets are on the over but the line has dropped 2 points. That tells me smart money is on the under

NO is similarly a public fade while BOS has two key players (Brown / Tatum) questionable after already missing a couple games. 70% of bets are on BOS here but the line has dropped from -1.5 to -1. Sharp money is on NO here, and even if those two guys play for BOS they will be lacking rhythm after a brief absence. NO home court adv should be substantial, that building has been electric since Zion came back

ORL is another contrarian pick vs LAC at home. 75% of bets are on LAC, but 50% of money is on ORL (suggests bigger bets, those likely placed by people who do this for a living, are on ORL) and the line has dropped from 4.5 to 3.5. George is still out, and this smells like a flat spot for TOR. ORL is healthy again (Vucevic) and has been playing really tough the past few games.

WAS owns Atlanta. The Wizards are seen as a bottom dwelling team, and that is likely where they end up this season without Wall. That said, they have a number of high effort role players contributing and have pulled off a few substantial upsets in recent weeks. They match up well vs. ATL and beat the Hawks by 10 without Beal earlier this month - Beal is now back and playing very well, I expect another WAS win here.

Lets get it!