Straight FUEGO last night! Wrong on the Zverev / Wawrinka match but a clean sweep of everything else to finish +$5.0 units on the day.
Recap of Day 10 matches and bets we made below. Have also included the original handicaps for each play to give you guys a look at how our theories played out in reality.
Day 10 Results = 6-2, +$5.0
✅Halep -1.5 Set $1.1 / $1.0
✅Halep -3.5 $1.3 / $1.0
✅Halep ML x Muguruza ML $1.0 / $1.1
✅Muguruza -3 $1.2 / $1.0
✖️Wawrinka O41 $2.3 / $2.0
✖️Wawrinka ML $1.0 / $1.2
✅Thiem +4.5 $2.4 / $2.0
✅Thiem ML $1.0 / $2.2
AO Total thru Day 10 = 58 - 47, +$6.9
Rafael Nadal vs Dominic Thiem (Thiem +4.5 @ -115 / Thiem ML +225)
What a match! We loved Thiem last night as we felt the surface suited him and the dynamics within this specific matchup favored him as well. The two had played close matches on Hard Court in the past, but this was before Thiem even became an elite threat on this surface and that improvement was enough to get him the victory. We felt the slow nature of the courts in Australia would elongate points and cause Nadal both strategic and physical issues, and it was clear he began to tire as the match wore on.
It was a close tie in the end, with Thiem taking 3 tiebreakers to win in 4 sets. Thiem out-served Nadal by 2% the two created a roughly equal number of break point chances. This was exactly what we expected (essentially an even match), which left tremendous value on Thiem as a +4.5 game / +225 ML underdog. Glad it paid off, fantastic way to cap the session.
Thiem now moves on to play Zverev, who looks to be on an absolute serve heater. More on that later today once we assess Day 11 matchups.
Alexander Zverev vs Stan Wawrinka (Wawrinka ML @ +120 / Over 41 @ -115)
I must be honest that we felt pretty good about our position here after Wawrinka took the first set with ease. Zverev looked to be feeling the nerve’s we mentioned in our pre-match write up in the opening set and Stan absolutely red-lined his game to take it 6-1. However, Zverev appears to have sorted his daddy issues and truly became a man last night. He kept his cool through Wawrinka’s opening blitz and came back on an absolute mission in the following set, winning 20/20 serve points to take it 6-3. It was at this point that Wawrinka began to struggle physically with the conditions, and the confidence Zverev gained from the 2nd set turnaround carried him through the rest of the match.
It was truly a sublime serving performance from the German, who looks nearly impossible to beat if he can maintain that level of performance (80% first serves in, 76% of 1st serve points won). Wawrinka looked to have peaked too early in the match, as he was unable to recapture that level of performance in the subsequent 3 sets and really did not stand a chance as he would have needed achieve virtual perfection on serve to keep up.
Looking forward, Thiem vs Zverev looks to be one hell of a match. Zverev comes in playing the best tennis of his life… and Thiem comes in playing the best tennis of his life. Each of the two young stars overtook entrenched members of the old guard in the QF round, and it will be difficult to pick a winner here
Anett Kontaveit vs Simona Halep (Halep ML -250 / Halep -3.5 gm @ -130 / Halep -1.5 set @ -110)
Pretty simple re-cap here – Halep absolutely dominated this entire match. Halep showed up with her A game and seems almost impossibly determined to claim her 3rd major. Her level of focus is remarkable, and I can count on 1 hand the number of serves she did not return into play through the entire match. Kontaveit struggled with the moment, as we expected, and the match got away from her quickly as she faced relentless pressure. Difficult to see anyone beating Halep here, but I took a look at the stats and Muguruza actually profiles rather favorably on the trailing data, while she has also had success vs. Halep in their H2H hard court history. Should be an interesting handicap.
Garbine Muguruza vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (Muguruza -3 @ -120)
Muguruza also put her best foot forward, and played a relentless match in her own right. Pavlyuchenkova was always going to struggle in this matchup based on her game style, and we felt Pavlyuchenkova would struggle under the spotlight of another Grand Slam QF (she was 0-5 in that spot coming in). Muguruza executed, and we cashed on her game spread -3 (-120) and the Halep x Muguruza ML parlay (+110).
No comments:
Post a Comment