Day 12 Pick + Preview / Day 11 Results

Straight fuego last night from Kenin to cash our biggest play of the night. We went 5-1 and wound up +$5.9 units (where $1 unit = what you would typically bet “to win” on a normal wager. Day 11 results below:

Day 11 Picks (5-1, +$5.9)

Total thru Day 11 = 63-48, +$12.8

✅Kenin O21 $2.6 / $2.0

✅Kenin +4.5 gm $1.3 / $1.0

✅Kenin ML $1.0 / $2.6

✖️Halep ML $1.7 / $1.0

✅Halep / Muguruza O21.5 $1.3 / $1.0

✅Djoko -2.5 set $1.3 / $1.0

That’s now 11-3 in the last 2 days for +$10.9 units, and we had the 2 biggest upsets of the week in Thiem ML + Kenin ML. The YTD and Tournament numbers starting to look really good - let’s close strong! 

Here is our pick for the last semi-final match:

Day 12 Picks:

Thiem -1.5 set vs Zverev $2.2 / $2.0

Day 11 Match Preview + Handicap

Alexander Zverev vs Dominic Thiem (Thiem -1.5 sets @ -110 / Thiem -4 gm @ -110 / Thiem ML -200)

Both players come in on top of their game following strong victories vs. Wawrinka and Nadal. They profile similarly on trailing 1Y / 6M hard court stats (Thiem holds serve at +5.5% higher rate than Zverev, but breaks serve at a -3% lower rate) and vs. a sample of Common Opponents Faced. Thiem has some significant sub-edges within that data, consistent across both samples, faring much better on 2nd serve win rate (+7.7%) and on Break Pt Save % (+12%). Notably, Thiem historically saves break points at a higher rate than his typical serve win rate while Zverev saves break points at a lower rate than his standard service win rate (suggests Thiem is better at handling high pressure moments, 2nd serve deltas back that up as well). 

With that said, it’s important to note that experience + mental game definitely favor Thiem. This is his 3rd Grand Slam semi-final, and he’s won plenty of HUGE matches vs the top players in the game at this point. This will easily be the biggest match of Zverev’s career, and we already saw that it took him some time to settle in against Wawrinka – if he shows up that way, Thiem will not let him back into the match after a slow start.

The surface conditions also need to be noted here. The courts are playing extremely slow, and while the heat will likely speed things up to a degree, the expectation is that they will still play well slower than your typical hard court. Zverev struggles to generate his own pace on the forehand side, and generally prefers quicker surfaces. Thiem much prefers a slower surface, as he is better at creating angles and finishing points in that fashion rather than just trying to hit through his opponent as Zverev often does. This dynamic is evident in their H2H, with Zverev’s only 2 victories in 8 matches coming on extremely fast courts relative to their surface (Beijing / Hard and Madrid / Clay).

The H2H heavily favors Thiem. Thiem has won 4/5 on Clay, and 2/3 on Hard Courts. The statistics from the clay sample are not super relevant here, but Thiem has out served Zverev by +6.7% in the 2 Hard Court meetings since 2016 (one in 2017 and one in 2019). Notably, Thiem’s performances vs. Zverev on Hard Court have gotten progressively better over time, and this makes sense given his dramatic improvement on the surface over the last 1-2 years. For context, if Thiem were to out serve Zverev by +6.7% again in this match that would give him a 92% chance of winning and a 46% chance of winning in straight sets.

The combination of my 3 forecasts (weighted avg) yields a predicted +3.4% serve Delta for Thiem, implying a 76% chance of winning (ML -315) and a 56% chance of winning in 3 or 4 sets (-1.5 set = -126). I would worry about Zverev coming out and serving 80% of his first serves in again, and we would likely be in for a very tough / close match if that turns out to be the case. I tend to believe that Thiem’s game will put a ton of pressure on Zverev (in addition to the pressure of the moment) and it is more likely than not that Zverev does not perform on serve at the level we saw vs. Wawrinka. Thiem has beaten much better players on the road to get here, and has the experience necessary to show up and play his best game.

Thiem -1.5 sets is the bet – I show a fair amount of value on the ML as well, but prefer to limit the risk @-110 on the spread rather than -200 on the ML because Zverev’s performance here is so binary – if I know ahead of time that he shows up with his A+ serve then I don’t like the ML as much at -200, if he doesn’t, then -1.5 sets should cash easily.