AO Total thru Day 9 = 52-45, +$1.9
Starting off with the Women's matches, will add Men shortly as they don't begin for a few hours:
* Model outputs at bottom of post
Day 10 Picks - Women
Halep -1.5 Set (-110) $1.1 / $1.0
Halep -3.5 (-130) $1.3 / $1.0
Halep ML x Muguruza ML (+120) $1.0 / $1.1
Muguruza -3 gm (-120) $1.2 / $1.0
Wawrinka / Zverev O41 (-115) $2.3 / $2.0Wawrinka ML (+120) $1.0 / $1.2
Thiem +4.5 gm vs Nadal (-120) $2.4 / $2.0
Thiem ML (+225) $1.0 / $2.25
Day 10 Match Previews and Handicaps:
Slow courts don’t actually benefit Nadal if you look at his results across hard court surfaces. He is more reliant on a high bouncing court, slow or fast (forehand topspin up + away from opp backhand), while his clay performance also shows he does better on faster / high bouncing courts. Aussie courts are playing extremely slow and are bouncing low. This protects Thiem’s 1-hand backhand and will create longer / grinding points. Even further, this is a night match so the courts will be even slower and give less bounce than usual. Thiem is definitely the fresher of the two after Nadal’s 5 setter vs Kyrgios (Thiem hardly broke a sweat vs Monfils), and Nadal’s FOREHAND, of all things, looked vulnerable in his last match. Thiem should have beaten Nadal in NYC 2 years ago when he murdered him through 2 sets – he has gotten significantly better since then and has played enough big matches to rise to the occasion here
The Trailing Hard-Court data favors Nadal, he has a slight edge on Serve Holds and a more substantial 8% edge on serve breaks. The trends are relatively consistent across both the 1Y / 6M data and the Common opponent sample. However, these two played a H2H at the US open that was extremely close. Thiem won the first 2 sets with relative ease, before Nadal fought back for a 5-set victory in a deciding tie breaker. Thiem showed how he can hurt Nadal when his weapons are firing early in that match, and he has only improved his level of play / gained big match experience since that match. Adjusting for their stat deltas from that time period to the last 6M, I get a forecasted serve win % differential of +1.2% for Thiem.
These courts are even slower / lower bouncing than those in NYC, and I think Thiem is a live dog in this match. Easy take on the +4.5-game spread, will bet ML as well.
Alexander Zverev vs Stan Wawrinka (Wawrinka ML @ +120 / Over 41 @ -115)
What a match! Stan and Zverev both come in playing phenomenal tennis, and this should be a tightly contested affair. Trailing 1Y hard court data definitely favors Zverev and justifies his price, but I believe 2019 Wawrinka is not the Wawrinka we are getting today. He has spoken multiple times about how he feels fully recovered from his injury, and finally getting a full offseason of training instead of recovery has left him moving better now than at any time in the past 3 years. Looking at the last 6M of data, this looks like a dead even match. Wawrinka holds serve at a +4% higher rate than Zverev but breaks at a -4% lower rate.
Wawrinka is also a big match player. He has a history of taking his game to the next level against top players on big stages and is really the only player on tour to have consistently challenged Nadal / Djoko / Federer at grand slams. Looking at the common opponent sample (which should account for Wawrinka’s tendency to step it up against better players), Wawrinka actually profiles as a slight favorite. He holds +8% edge on serve holds and only a -5% deficit on serve breaks. Crucially, Wawrinka has significantly better numbers on 2nd serve and break point save % across each data set. In a close / high pressure match, I always like backing the player with a big edge on serving in pressure situations.
Wawrinka has gone 7-3 in his last 10 Grand Slam matchups vs. top 10 players, and is the one player outside the big 3 that has consistently shown he can rise to the occasion. On the other hand, this is Zverev’s first Grand Slam quarterfinal, and one has to be concerned with his ability to handle that and deliver given that he has struggled with pressure moments in the past (his 1st serve tends to miss more, and then 2nd serve breaks down under pressure). This further stresses the importance of Zverev’s disadvantage on 2nd serve and BP save’s
The H2H favors Zverev, but their last matchup was in 2017. This was generally a dark time for Stan, who has spent much of the time since 2017 recovering from an injury / surgery he underwent that year. If we adjust the H2H statistics for each player’s stat deltas from 2017 to the last 6M, we get a forecast of +2% serve win rate for Zverev
The combination of all 3 models indicates a dead even match. I can see why Zverev is favored, but with the data even and so many sub-edges pointing to Stan I want to back him here. Zverev has looked incredible but has face extremely flaccid competition with the exception of an exhausted Rublev. I will certainly hammer this over – I don’t see a way this match ends 3-0 and expect serves to dominate here so we should get at least 1 breaker. I’m also going to back Wawrinka with a ½ stake on the ML, since I see some value in his price at +120.
Anett Kontaveit vs Simona Halep (Halep ML -250 / Halep -3.5 gm @ -130 / Halep -1.5 set @ -110)
Kontaveit has done very well to get here, but I don’t see her making it through Halep in this match. She was somewhat luck to beat Swiatek, who was the better player through 2 sets and twice failed to consolidate break leads in the second set already up 1-0. Swiatek then succumbed to fatigue / injury in the 3rd, and while Kontaveit still had to do her job to win the match she did show some serious nerves allowing the hobbled teenager to break her twice while serving for the match (giving up a 5-1 lead all the way to 5-5). A player with Halep’s experience and mentality will have a much better grip on how to handle the pressure moments and that is a substantial edge at this stage in the tournament.
Looking at the data, Halep slightly outperforms on 1Y / 3M blended stats, holding serve +0.2% more and Breaking close to +1% more. Adjusting the sample down to Common Opponents faced (a better way to assess performance in context of the ability level for the player they are facing), Halep has a much more substantial edge – she holds serve +7% more and breaks serve +6% more. The H2H history occurred in 2017, when Kontaveit had yet to develop into a good player, and Halep dominated both matchups. Adjusting for the surface difference (one matchup was on clay) and the improvement in Kontaveit’s data from 2017 stats to last 6M stats, my model still forecasts a +7% serve delta for Halep in this match with an 81% chance of winning and a 52% chance of straight sets.
Combining all 3 models yields a +6% forecasted serve delta for Halep, giving her a 77% chance of winning the match (-330 fair value odds) and a 47% chance of doing so in straight sets (+110). However, this does not account for any potential nerves felt by Kontaveit and her tendency to perform poorly vs. elite competition. Kontaveit is 3-7 vs. top 20 opponents and 1-5 vs. top 10 players in the last 1Y on Hard Courts.
Halep is dialed in and heat seeking for her 3rd grand slam with the draw essentially shattered save for Barty – any wobbles from Kontaveit will result in a routine win for Halep. Is it possible that Kontaveit shows up on a heater and turns this into a tight match (thereby cashing her side of the game spread / set spread lines)? Absolutely. But I see that as an unlikely proposition, with the median outcome clearly favoring Halep.
Garbine Muguruza vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (Muguruza -3 @ -120)
Muguruza has a substantial edge on trailing Hard Court stats, Holding serve +3.5% more and breaking serve +4.3% more often than Pav. Crucially, she has significantly better numbers on 2nd serve, break point save % and break point conversion %, which should serve her well if this match winds up being close. It also suggests that Muguruza is better equipped to handle the pressure of the moment. Not only has she performed better on pressure points historically, but she has also played a number of matches late in grand slams as well. Pavlyuchenka’s ability to handle pressure has to be called into question, not only on that basis but also because she gave up a double break lead in set 1 and was broken again while up 2 breaks in set 3 of her match vs. Kerber. This probably has something to do with her 0-5 record in GS quarter final matches.
The H2H is extremely one sided – Muguruza is 3-0, out serving Pav by +11.5% and holding serve in +23% more games over those 3 matches. The entire history on hard court occurred prior to 2017, however, and that reduces the relevance of those numbers on a standalone basis. If we then adjust for both players statistical deltas from 2016 to 2019 (Pav improves, Muguruza roughly the same / slightly worse), we get a forecast for Muguruza to out serve Pav by roughly +4%, implying a 72% chance of winning the match (-250).
Muguruza matches up well vs. Pav, who likes to hit huge groundstrokes while trying to hit the opponent off the court. Muguruza is a classic counterpuncher who loves to soak up the opponents pace and use it to generate her own power / re-direct balls back the other way. I’ve noticed Pavlyuchenkova doesn’t move particularly well after taking huge swings, and if Muguruza is sharp today she will be able to take full advantage of that dynamic.
Combining all 3 forecasting methods results in an average serve delta of +2.5% to Muguruza, which prices the ML at just about -200. This is roughly fair value vs. the ML, but I would even adjust that further towards Muguruza given the matchup dynamics and this being Pav’s inability to win QF Grand Slam matches in the past (0-5). The risk is that Pav shows up and red lines her game for 3 sets, which we have seen her do in spurts over the past week. I am going to avoid any large ML exposure for now with that in mind (may parlay with Halep ML combined) and look to the game spread at -3 instead. If this match plays to my expectations and the matchup dynamics noted are present, I don’t think Muguruza will have trouble closing this out and covering the number… if I’m wrong, I’d rather be laying -120 on the spread than -200.
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