About Me

Equity Analysts and sports fans, always looking for a new market to beat. We are contrarian style bettors, focusing on isolating value when public perception has created dislocation in a market. We blend statistical models and spot systems with market analysis (looking for situations where sharp money comes against public money) to make our selections. We primarily focus on NFL, NBA, and Tennis. Soccer is a specialty as well, but at this point we are not confident in saying we have a LT ROI + edge on that front.

Sunday, January 26, 2020

Recapping Aussie Open Tennis Twitter Picks thru Day 7

We've been publishing some content on Twitter over the past 2 weeks. In the Interest of getting this blog fired up, I am going to paste in that content below as an example of the picks and analysis we will be posting on this blog:

Pick format is as follows: [Player Backed vs. Opponent --> $ amount wagered / to win amount]


Australian Open Tennis Picks - Day 7

AO Total thru Day 6 = 39-33, +$0.1

Cilic ML (+150) $1.0 / $1.5
Cilic / Raonic O43 (-130) $1.3 / $1.0
Sandren +3.5 vs Fognini (-125) 2.5 / $2.0
Sandgren ML (+140) $1.0 / $1.4
Cilic O3.5 set x Sandgren O3.5 set x Fucs O35 gm
--> Parlay $0.5 / $1.6


Kenin ML vs Gauff (-160) $1.6 / $1.0

Kenin / Gauff O21.5 (-120) $0.6 / $0.5

No write ups for this Saturday's matches but the method remains the same.

Day 7 Picks: 4-2, +$2.1 

✖️Cilic ML $1.0 / $1.5
✖️Cilic O43 $1.3 / $1.0
✅Sandren +3.5 2.5 / $2.0
✅Sandgren ML $1.0 / $1.4

✅Kenin ML vs Gauff $1.6 / $1.0
✅Kenin / Gauff O21.5 $0.6 / $0.5
✖️Parlay -$0.5

Image

AO Total thru Day 7 = 43-35, +$2.2

Australian Open Tennis Picks - Day 6


AO Total thru Day 5 = 30-28, -$1.6


Monfils -1.5 set vs Gulbis (-100) $1.0 / $1.0
Rublev -3.5 gm vs Goffin (-120) $2.4 / $2.0
Thiem ML vs Fritz (-240) $2.4 / $1.0
Thiem -3.5 gm (-130) $1.3 / $1.0
Thiem O3.5 sets @ -180 $1.8 / $1.0 --> (play both sides of this if you are going to take either)
Isner ML vs Wawrinka (-100) $2.0 / $2.0
Isner O12.5 gm 1st Set (-130) $1.3 / $1.0
Kyrgios ML vs Khach (-250) $2.5 / $1.0
Kyrgios / Khach O39.5 gm (-120) $1.2 / $1.0

Pliskova -1.5 Sets vs Pav (-125) $1.25 / $1.0
Svitolina / Muguruza O21.5 $2.3 / $2.0
Swiatek +2.5 vs Vekic (-110) $1.1 / $1.0
Swiatek ML vs Vekic (+140) $1.0 / $1.4
Bellis +1.5 set vs Mertens $1.25 / $1.00
Bellis ML $0.5 / $1.0

Image
Image
Image
Image
Picks for Day 5 - Men (6-2, +$2.3)

✅Monfils -1.5 set $1.0
✖️Rublev -3.5 gm $2.4 
✅Thiem ML $2.4 / $1.0
✅Thiem -3 $1.3 / $1.0
✅Thiem O3.5 sets $1.8 / $1.0
(P) Isner ML
✖️Isner O12.5 gm 1st Set $1.3 
✅Kyrgios ML $2.5 / $1.0
✅Kyrgios / Khach O39.5 gm $1.2 / $1.0

Day 6 - Women (3-3, -$0.65)

✖️Pliskova -1.5 Set $1.25
✅Swiatek +2.5 $1.1 / $1.0
✅Swiatek ML $1.0 / $1.4
✅Bellis +1.5 set $1.25 / $1.00
✖️Bellis ML $0.5 / $1.25
✖️Svitolina O21.5 $2.3

Day 6 Total (9-5, +$1.7)

AO Total thru Day 6 = 39-33, +$0.1

Image

Australian Open Tennis Picks - Day 5

AO Total (Thru Day 4) = 27-21, +$5.30  units

Lajovic +4.5 vs Schwartz (-115) $2.3 / $2.0
Lajovic / Schwartz O3.5 set (-160) $1.6 / $1.0
Sandgren / Querrey O42.5 gm (-120) $2.4 / $2.0
Sandgren ML $1.0 / $1.2
Paul / Fucs O39 $1.05 / $1.0
Paul ML $1 / $1.2

Cilic / Agut O3.5 set (-170) $1.7 / $1.0

Fognini ML vs Pella (-105) $1.05 / $1.0
Raonic / Tsitsi O43 (-110) $1.1 / $1.0
Raonic ML vs Tsitsi (+230) $0.5 / $1.15

Rybakina / Barty O20 (-130) $1.3 / $1.0
Rybakina ML (+300) $0.33 / $1.0

Image
Image

AO Day 5 Picks - Men (3-5, -$5.1) 

✖️Lajovic +4.5 $2.3 
✖️Lajovic O3.5 set $1.6 
✖️Paul / Fucs O39 $1.05 
✖️Paul ML $1.0 
✖️Sandgren O42.5 $2.4 
✅Sandgren ML $1.0 / $1.2
✅Cilic O3.5 set $1.7 / $1.0
✅Fognini ML $1.05 / $1.0
✖️Raonic O43 $1.1
✅Raonic ML $0.5 / $1.15

AO Day 5 Picks - Women (0-2, -$2.1)

✖️Rybakina / Barty O20 $1.3 / $1.0
✖️Rybakina ML $0.33 / $1.0

✖️Lajovic O3.5 x Paul O3.5 x Sandgren O3.5 x Fognini O3.5 
—> 4 x Parlay $0.5 / $2.15

AO Total thru Day 5 = 30-28, -$1.6

Image

Australian Open Tennis Picks - Day 4


AO Total Thru Day 3 = 19-16, +2.45 


Bedene -2.5 gm $1.2 / $1.0
Basil +3.5 vs Verdasco $2.3 / $2.0
Gerasimov / Zverev O36 $1.15 / $1.0
Gerasimov / Zverev O2.5 set $1.25 / $1.0
Popyrin -1.5 set $1.25 / $1.0
Anderson ML $0.65 / $0.5
Anderson / Fritz O41 $0.55 / $0.5
Ymer +5 gm vs Khach $2.25 / $2.0
Ymer ML $0.5 / $1.2
Seppi / Wawrinka O37.5 $1.15 / $1.0

Swiatek ML vs Suarez $1.55 / $1.0
Collins ML vs Putintseva $2.2 / $1.0
Svitolina -1.5 set v Davis $1.7 / $1.0

Image
AO Day 4 - Men (6-4, +$3.05)

✖️Bedene -2.5 gm $1.2
✅Basil +3.5 gm $2.0
✖️Zverev O36 gm + O3.5 set $2.4
✅Popyrin -1.5 set $1.0
✖️Anderson ML $0.65
✅Anderson O41 gm $0.5
✅Ymer +5 $2.0
✖️Ymer ML $0.5 / $1.2
✅Wawrinka O37.5 gm $1.15 / $1.0
✅Fritz O3.5 x Basil O3.5 $1.0 / $1.3

AO Day 4 - Women (2-1, -$0.2 units)

✅Swiatek ML $1.55 / $1.0
✖️Collins ML $2.2 / $1.0
✅Svitolina -1.5 set $1.7 / $1.0

AO Total (Thru Day 4) = 27-21, +$5.30  units

Australian Open Tennis Picks - Day 3


AO Record Thru Day 2 = 10-12, -$2.8 units


Pegula ML vs Townsend $1.0 / $0.5
Querrey -1.5 set vs Berankis $1.3 / $1.0
Swiatek ML vs Babos $1.6 / $1.0
Nishioka +2 vs Evans $2.3 / $2.0
Mmoh / Agut O31 $1.2 / $1.0
Jabeur ML vs Garcia $1.6 / $1.0
Yastremska ML vs Wozniaki $1.5 / $1.0
Sinner ML vs Fucsovics $1.25 / $1.0
Rybakina -1.5 vs Minnen $1.05 / $1.0
Rybakina ML x Wang ML x Berrettini ML $1.0 / $1.2
Dimitrov / Paul O39 $1.2 / $1.0
Lajovic -1.5 Set vs Polmans $1.6 / $1.0
Fognini ML vs Thompson $1.55 / $1

Image
Image
Image
Image


Aussie Open Day 3 ATP Results (6-2, +$4.75)


✅Querrey -1.5 set $1.3 / $1.0
✅Nishioka +2 $2.3 / $2.0
✖️Sinner ML $1.25
✖️Rybakina x Wang x Berrettini $1.0
✅Dimitrov / Paul O39 $1.2 / $1.0
✅Mmoh / Agut O31 $1.2 / $1.0
✅Lajovic -1.5 Set $1.6 / $1.0
✅Fognini ML $1.55 / $1.0

Aussie Open Day 3 WTA Results (3-2, +$0.5)

✖️Pegula ML $1.0 / $0.5
✅Swiatek ML $1.5 / $1.0
✅Jabeur ML $1.6 / $1.0
✖️Yastremska ML $1.5 / $1.0
✅Rybakina -1.5 $1.05 / $1.0

Day 3 Total: 9-4, +$5.25 📈📈

AO Total Thru Day 3 = 19-16, +2.45 


Australian Open Tennis Picks - Day 2


Men's Picks

Bedene ML vs Duckworth $0.85 / $0.5
Bedene -2.5 vs Duckworth $0.6 / $0.5
Dzumhur / Wawrinka O33.5 $1.15 / $1.0
Sousa ML vs Delbonis $1.0 / $1.05
Griekspoor / Fritz O35.5 $1.15 / $1.0
Kyrgios -2.5 Set vs Sonego $1.2 / $1.0
Sonego +6.5 gm vs Kyrgios $0.55 / $0.5
Gerasimov +5 gm vs Ruud $1.2 / $1.0
Gerasimov ML $0.5 / $1.1

Image
Additional Notes For Men's Day 2:
  • Kyrgios should win this match comfortably, but both players are strong on serve and Kyrgios has a tendency to coast through sets before turning it on in tiebreakers (+6.5 game spread is too much)
  • Gerasimov is an absolute missile and may very well be a better hard court player than Ruud
Women's Picks

Keys -1.5 x Collins -1.5 $1.0 / $1.1
Vekic ML vs Sharpova $1.6 / $1.0
Samsonova ML vs Ostapenko $1.2 / $1.0
Brady / Halep O20.5 $1.25 / $1.0
Brady +1.5 Set vs Halep $0.55 / $0.5
Pegula ML vs Townsend $$1.05 / $0.5

Image

Day 2 Results ATP (6-2, +$3.45)

✅Bedene ML / -2.5 gm $1.0
✅Dzumhur / Wawrinka O33.5 $1.0
✖️Sousa ML $1.0
✖️Griekspoor / Fritz O35.5 $1.15
✅Kyrgios -2.5 Set $1.0
✅Sonego +6.5 gm $0.5
✅Gerasimov +5 vs Ruud $1.0
✅Gerasimov ML $0.5 /$1.1

Day 2 Results WTA (1-3, -$2.0)

✅Vekic ML vs Sharpova $1.6 / $1.0
✖️Samsonova ML vs Ostapenko $1.2 / $1.0
✖️Brady / Halep O20.5 $1.25 / $1.0
✖️Brady +1.5 Set vs Halep $0.55 / $0.5

Day 2 ATP + WTA Total = 7-5, +$1.45 units

AO Total Thru Day 2 = 10-12, -$2.8 units

No comments:

Post a Comment