Australian Open Day 8 Recap and Results (1/26)
Review of yesterday’s action below
Day 8 Total = 6-7, +$1.0
AO Total thru Day 7 = 43-35, +$2.2
Day 8 Picks - Women (4-2, +$3.4 units)
✅Halep ML vs Mertens (-165) $1.65 / $1.0
✅Halep -2.5 gm (-120) $1.2 / $1.0
✖️Swiatek +2.5 gm vs Kontaveit (-110) $1.1 / $1.0
✖️Swiatek ML (+140) $0.5 / $0.7
✅Pavlyuchenkova ML vs Kerber (-120) $2.4 / $2.0
✅Muguruza -2 gm vs Bertens (-130) $1.3 / $1.0
Day 8 Picks - Men: (2-5, -$2.4 units)
✅Thiem -1.5 set vs Monfils (-150) $1.5 / $1.0
✖️Parlay: Thiem ML x Medvedev ML $1.4 / $1.0
✖️Medvedev to win 3-1 (+270) $0.5 / $1.35
✖️Rublev / Zverev O3.5 sets (-190) $1.9 / $1.0
✖️Rublev ML $1.15 / $1.0
✅Kyrgios / Nadal O39 $2.4 / $2.0
✖️Kyrgios ML (+425) $0.5 / $2.13
Australian Open Day 8 Recap + Betting Review:
Very solid day overall, as a number of our higher confidence plays hit and we were on the right side of almost all of our selections. Medvedev loss hurt us on the Thiem x Medvedev parlay, and we were completely wrong re: the level Zverev would bring to his match with Rublev.
However, we absolutely loved Thiem > Monfils, Kyrgios / Nadal Over 39 games, Halep > Mertens, Pavlyuchenkova > Kerber and Muguruza > Bertens, and all of them cashed fairly easily (despite some drama in the Kyrgios match to get us there).
Biggest disappointment of the day was Swiatek, who looked to have the match won in Set 2 multiple times, failing to close before picking up a thigh injury and running out of steam in the 3rd. 1 more serve hold from her in either Set 2 or 3 would have cashed our game spread at +2.5 (finished 7-6 / 5-7 / 5-7).
Quick thoughts on the matches below with some comments on the road forward for each advancing player. We will have 2 futures plays to make before the matches go off today, stay tuned for that later in the afternoon.
Monfils vs Thiem (Thiem -1.5 sets @ -150)
Thiem hardly broke a sweat vs. Monfils, dominating the match from start to finish. He did not face a break point and created 14 chances, converting 4 of them. He won service points at an 83% rate, which is absurd given the quality of Monfils’ return game. On return, he did enough to create his chances, holding Monfils to a 58% serve win percentage. We had Thiem -1.5 sets and that was a winner the whole way.
Thiem played attacking tennis throughout and appears to have worked his way into excellent form after a mediocre start to the tournament. His ground strokes are lethal right now, he is getting excellent depth and then taking court away from his opponents to create excellent angles on his finishing shots. The generally slower pace and lower bounce on the AO surface are particularly suitable for Thiem, who likes playing on clay (slower) but does not enjoy hitting backhands when the ball is bouncing up high into that side.
He now faces Nadal in the QF. Their only previous Hard Court encounter was a thriller at the US Open in 2018, with Thiem taking the first 2 sets and bageling Nadal 6-0 in the first before losing the match 3-2. One might think the slower surface suits Nadal given his strength on Clay, he actually plays markedly better on quick surfaces (his Clay performance is much better at altitude or in hot weather) and he also enjoys high bouncing courts, with his left hand topspin pressuring the backhand of his opponent as it bounces up and away from him. Given the form that Thiem is in, their prior H2H history and Thiem’s stark improvement since that time, alongside the surface edge for Thiem, we will look to play Thiem +5 games and on ML @ +250 vs Nadal, who will surely be sore / tired after last night’s match
Nadal vs Kyrgios (Over 39 games @ -120 / Kyrgios ML @ +425)
What a match. Kyrgios left it all out there, and a few points in the 3rd / 4th set tiebreakers made all the difference. Both players served extremely well, with very few break chances offered the entire match. We expected at least 4 sets alongside some tie breakers to get us there, and that was enough to cash the Over on the game total of 39. Nadal took a bit of a beating out there, but he served very well and got the job done in critical moments. He has Thiem next, and we will be looking to fade Nadal going forward as the surface does not suit him (slower and low bounce) and he should be fatigued after a physically and emotionally draining match. See above for more detail on why we will almost certainly be playing Thiem in their match on Tuesday night.
Medvedev vs Wawrinka
This was the biggest surprise on the men’s side with Wawrinka winning outright as a +275 underdog. We had exposure to a prop line on Medvedev winning by an exact 3-1 score line, and it looked for a moment in the 4th set that this might pay out, but Medvedev shit his pants in the breaker and never recovered, losing the 5th set without much resistance. We also had some Medvedev ML exposure in a parlay with Thiem, so we were clearly on the wrong side of this one.
In hindsight, the surface conditions are clearly slower and lower bouncing than your typical hard court, with the balls getting fuzzed up very quickly following changes - that dynamic suited Wawrinka in this matchup. He tends to struggle when playing on super quick courts due to an elongated swing on his backhand side – he can often feel rushed and produce errors when the surface is playing quick and his opponent attacks this. Medvedev hits flat + penetrating groundstrokes, and would have benefited greatly from a faster playing court.
That said, Medvedev clearly did not bring his best to this match, and Wawrinka did an excellent job taking his chances (3/8 on break point chances vs 4/11 for Medvedev). Our exposure to Medvedev feels like it was a bit of a force – we loved Thiem and should have just played him -1.5 sets for 2 units instead of trying to get cute with the ML parlay. Lesson learned
Wawrinka now moves on to face Zverev in the QF. Zverev has won both meetings on Hard Court, each a 3 setter. Zverev has out served Wawrinka by +6% across those 2 matchups, but we will have to account for the fact that these matches were played in 2016 / 2017 and both players have changed since then (Wawrinka big injuries, rounding back into form / Zverev complete loss of confidence, rounding back into form). IF Zverev is able to carry momentum over from his match vs Rublev then I would expect him to get through Wawrinka, although I would be surprised if it is not a competitive match. More on that tomorrow
Zverev vs Rublev (Rublev ML @ -115 and O3.5 Sets @ -195)
This was a shocking performance from Zverev, who appears to have found a way to screw his head back on properly. It was a truly dominant serving performance against a player who had won 15 straight matches. Zverev won 83% of his serve points and didn’t even face a break point. He was good enough on return, and won each set by a break. Notably, Zverev hit 75% of his first serves in, losing only 5 points on first serve the entire match. He also won 60%+ on second serve, which is encouraging as this has been a problem area for him in the past.
We liked Rublev in this match, and actually faded our forecasting model in doing so. Our model forecasted a +5% serve delta in favor of Zverev, and he had dominated prior H2H meetings. I obviously regret that decision, as it was predicated on Zverev showing some weakness on second serve and struggling to get first serves in when pressured. His history in grand slams indicated that was a strong possibility, but Rublev was clearly at the end of his rope and didn’t have enough juice in his legs to turn this match around like he did vs. Goffin in hindsight.
The big takeaway is that Zverev is peaking right now – when he gets on a serve heater like this he is very difficult to stop. Wawrinka is very weak on return, and if Zverev can even approach 65% of first serves in during that matchup I have a hard time seeing Stan breaking serve. Zverev out served Stan by +5% in 2 prior meetings, holding serve at an 85% clip vs a 65% rate for Wawrinka. At -150 on the ML, I have a sense that we will be backing Zverev in that match. We will provide a more detailed breakdown with tomorrow’s picks.
Mertens vs Halep (Halep ML @ -160 + -2 gm @ -110)
Halep has the eye of the tiger right now, and she very well could take home the title next weekend. She played a nearly flawless match, displaying her trademark consistency off both wings and beating Mertens back every time she tried to make a run. Halep won both sets by a break and out served Mertens by +8%, facing only 5 break points while creating 14 chances of her own. She looks more like the Halep of 1H 2019 than the Halep that struggled into the end of the year. We played Halep on the ML and -2.5 games, and both looked good for the entirety of the match.
She now moves on to face Kontaveit, who progressed through Swiatek due to a combination of sheer grit and some fitness / injury issues for her opponent. Halep should be close to a -250 favorite for that match, and should have no trouble getting through that match (she played Kontaveit twice in 2017 and only lost 9 games across 4 sets in those matches).
Kontaveit vs Swiatek (Swiatek ML @ +125 / Swiatek +2.5 @-110)
This was a tough pill to swallow, as Swiatek looked ready to finish Kontaveit a number of times in the 2nd set. 1 more service hold from Swiatek in either the 2nd or 3rd set would have cashed our game spread, and it was something of a bad beat considering that she looked likely to win the match throughout most of the second set.
Swiatek played a rock solid match until getting broken twice while up a break in that 2nd set, but then seemed to lose steam and she faded hard in the 3rd set as fatigue and a thigh injury hampered her performance. Nonetheless, Swiatek still created more break chances than Kontaveit despite a weak 3rd set, and the upshot is that she likely continues to fly under the radar for the next few months, and we should look to back her on the upcoming Hard Court swing. Could not have been more impressed with her weapons and mentality this week – she is still very young but will likely win a major at some point in the next few years
Kerber vs Pavlyuchenkova (Pavlyuchenkova ML @ -120)
We had noticed some deterioration in Kerber’s hard court data over the last 6 months, and that came to full fruition during this match. She looked worn out, slightly injured, and generally unhappy to be out on a tennis court. The combination of her poor-ish form and Pav’s ability to negate Kerber’s left hand serve and top spin with her rifle of a backhand should have made this a very straightforward match. However… despite out-serving Kerber by +9% and creating 18 BP chances vs. only 4 allowed, Pav allowed Kerber to come back from a double break deficit to win the 1stset in a tiebreaker. This complicated the match in a big way, and Pav spent nearly the entire evening seeing numerous break point chances saved. She played a strong match in the end, but you could see moments where she allowed pressure to hurt her game, and I have a sense that the moment may be too big for her in a QF vs. Muguruza
Muguruza vs Bertens (Muguruza -2 gm @ -120)
Muguruza was an absolute missile vs. Bertens, dominating the match and controlling play throughout. She won 74% of serve points (extremely high in the Women’s game) vs. only 55% for Bertens, leading to a 10-4 edge in break point chances for Muguruza. This is the 2nd straight match Muguruza has shown exceptionally strong form (although if I have to hear about Mt. Kilimanjaro one more time I might just mute the TV), and it seems as though Muguruza has recaptured her best level after a prolonged dip in early 2019. She is extremely dangerous, and shouldn’t be counted out against anyone in this draw.
She should have a good time of it vs. Pavlyuchenkova – the 2 have met 5 times (1 Clay / 1 Grass / 3 Hard) with Muguruza taking every match played on either grass or hard, and Pav taking the clay court match by virtue of a withdrawal after a close 1st set. Muguruza has out served Pav by +11.5% in their Hard Court meetings / +33.3% in their grass meeting (this was their most recent match). It’s clear that a faster pace / lower bouncing surface favors Muguruza within this matchup. Will have more detailed matchup analysis on this with our picks for tomorrow.
No comments:
Post a Comment